It’s pretty clear that Michigan‘s hopes of making the College Football Playoff hinge on whether it can take down Ohio State this weekend. However, the Wolverines might need more than that in order to make the 12-team field.
Michigan was ranked 15th in the most recent CFP poll, placing it behind a handful of other 9-2 teams (Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami (Fla.), Utah, Vanderbilt) entering the final week of the regular season. However, a good number of the teams ranked above or right behind Michigan have intriguing matchups that could throw the CFP bubble into a frenzy.
No. 6 Oregon has to go to Washington, a program that has only lost once at home since the start of the 2022 season. No. 12 Miami takes on No. 22 Pitt. No. 14 Vanderbilt travels to No. 19 Tennessee. No. 16 Texas hosts No. 3 Texas A&M.
FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt said that if Michigan, Washington, Miami, Vanderbilt and Texas were to win those respective games — and assuming that Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Alabama and Utah hold serve — the CFP committee would be dealt with a “chaos grenade” about what to do as those teams (with Oregon in place of Washington) chase the final at-large spots.
Klatt believes Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama would be safe in this scenario, which might leave six teams battling for one at-large bid. If that’s the case, he believes Michigan should be in a good spot compared to the rest of the group.
“I would look at 9-3 Texas — don’t love it. They’ve got those gross wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State. I think they would be the first team eliminated out of those six, maybe. You’ve also got two of the worst losses of any of those six teams in Miami, with the Louisville and SMU losses. So, I think you can start to remove those two pretty quickly in that scenario. Utah has pretty clearly had a ceiling over them, so I think they would be the next one eliminated.
“You would also have Oregon, Vandy and Michigan. With Vandy and the big wins they would have and Michigan right behind them — I think it would come down to basically Oregon sliding and Michigan rising up. Remember, Michigan would’ve beaten the No. 1 team in the country. You would basically be having an Oregon-Michigan [debate] at No. 10. I think that’s what would happen in a full chaos mode.”
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One thing Klatt didn’t account for, though, was that if Michigan were to beat Ohio State and Oregon lost to Washington this weekend, the Wolverines would actually be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game. So, they could make the CFP that way, but that would either mean upsetting Indiana or beating Ohio State for a second straight week.
But if Michigan and Oregon had to battle for the final at-large spot, Klatt laid out the case for the Wolverines.
“If those five things happen [this weekend], I think it would probably come down to Oregon and Michigan at that point,” Klatt said. “I think Michigan would have the single best win in the country. Oregon would have a win over USC, who beat Michigan. But Michigan would have a win over Washington, who in this case, would’ve just beaten Oregon. So, it would get messy. Miami would be throwing things around, saying ‘Notre Dame is in there and we need to be included.’”
However, there’s also a scenario in which Klatt’s hypothetical Michigan-Oregon debate might not matter. If 11th-ranked BYU were to beat UCF this weekend and take down a one-loss and fifth-ranked Texas Tech team in the Big 12 Championship Game, that final at-large spot could theoretically go to the Red Raiders.
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That scenario would likely leave Michigan outside of the playoff, even with its win over Ohio State, partly due to its non-conference loss to Oklahoma earlier in the season. As that loss to Oklahoma could keep Michigan out, Klatt isn’t sure if excluding the Wolverines in this scenario would send the right message to the college football world.
“We’ve talked at length that the committee has to take into consideration these non-conference games that are scheduled willingly that teams don’t buy out of,” Klatt said. “If Michigan were to beat Ohio State and if Michigan were to be right on the bubble, then the committee would be communicating to everyone across the sport about the schedule. Michigan scheduled Oklahoma. It didn’t buy out of the game. Went down there, played them on the road with a true freshman quarterback and lost. Then, it ended up going on a winning streak and, in this scenario, with a win over the No. 1 team, they would be sitting there, thinking to themselves, ‘You’re telling us if we don’t go to the playoff, we should’ve scheduled Southeastern Missouri State.’
“That’s what the committee would be telling them, and that’s not what we want the committee telling anybody. We want them to value non-conference games, particularly big ones between two blue bloods. That’s what we wanna see.”
Of course, a two-loss Oklahoma team might get the edge over a two-loss Michigan team for a playoff spot because of that head-to-head victory. But Klatt recognized that the gap for Michigan to get an at-large spot might already be insurmountable because of that loss, which he doesn’t feel is right.
“If [Michigan] were to beat Ohio State, the clear No. 1 team in the country, it would be on the bubble,” Klatt said. “I do think you have to take into consideration what message you’re sending to the rest of college football if they’re not included in the playoff. You’d be telling them, ‘We would’ve rather seen you at 11-1 and play a patsty than be 10-2 and play a blue blood on the road.’ Just something to chew on.'”
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