Can Saquon Barkley have a breakout game after being held last week to only 22 yards in the Eagles‘ loss to Dallas?
What about the Texans‘ ability to cover and possibly win at the Colts as underdogs with Davis Mills at quarterback?
You might be surprised to read how I’m wagering both of these games.
But hear me out.
This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.
You are what your record says you are and both of these teams enter this game at 8-3.
However, that’s about where the comparisons end.
The Eagles are eighth in DVOA, while the Bears are 22nd. The Eagles are 10th on offense and eighth on defense, while the Bears are 14th on offense and 25th on defense. The Eagles, while struggling to score in the last month, are still +30 in point differential and the Bears are -3.
The number for this game shows you how different these teams are. The Eagles, off a bad loss, are still 7-point favorites at home.
I’m tempted to take the Eagles, but I do think something is off with their offense. They’ve scored 10, 16 and 21 in their last three games, and the 21 points against the Cowboys happened over their first three drives. Then, they didn’t score the rest of the game. Philly’s offensive line is beat up, too. The run game isn’t great at the moment and the passing game just doesn’t strike fear in opponents.
I would consider the Eagles in a teaser if you like another leg. Maybe Eagles and Ravens. However, I do like a prop in this game.
Saquon Barkley has not been close to the same runner as we saw last season. The Eagles’ offensive line injuries have hurt their ability to be as consistent in rushing the ball. I do think teams are targeting Barkley because the offense runs through him. He only had 22 yards on Sunday at Dallas with just 10 carries. The Bears’ rushing defense is ranked 27th in efficiency.
The Eagles are going to try to establish the line of scrimmage after a poor showing against the Cowboys. I think Barkley has a big Friday night.
PICK: Saquon Barkley Over 77.5 Rushing Yards
The shine is wearing off Indianapolis, and it’s happening at the worst time.
The Colts’ offense started the season on a historic pace. Quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor were moving up the MVP boards, and we were having serious discussions about the Colts as the 1-seed in the AFC.
After losing to the Steelers two weeks ago and to the Chiefs on Sunday, there’s now a concern about the Colts just holding onto the division, with the Jaguars a game back and the Texans just two off the lead.
Teams have figured out how to stop Taylor, and they’ve realized Jones isn’t the best head of the offense.
Taylor rushed for 58 against the Chiefs and 45 against the Steelers, which are his two worst games of the season. Also, the Colts’ defense is finally starting to show its 17th-ranked efficiency when the run game isn’t perfect. It has had more time on the field and had to defend from behind or be in close-game situations.
The Texans have won three straight with backup Davis Mills because he’s not turning the ball over and the Texans’ defense is amazing.
Houston beat the Jaguars, Titans and then the Bills just last Thursday in a statement win. The defense sacked Josh Allen 10 times, and if it stops the run on Sunday and is able to rush the passer, that will be a recipe for Jones to make mistakes.
This is a game where I think the Indy quarterback is going to be under fire for 60 minutes and that’s not where you’d like to see him.
I like Houston to keep the game close and eventually pull out a win. Get on this number now because if quarterback C.J. Stroud is back, the number will move.
PICK: Texans (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points or win outright
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!
