And with that, the 2025 college football regular season has come to an end.
Now, the real fun begins.
Conference championship weekend is on the horizon, which means we’ll know soon what the final College Football Playoff bracket looks like.
This, my friends, is the most wonderful time of the year.
For now, let’s look at my top 10 rankings heading into Week 15.
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Title odds: +7000
OU is the team that amazingly keeps finding a way and other teams are happy to help it along. The Sooners are 2-0 in games in which they were outgained by 100 yards. The rest of the Power 4 is 14-147 in such Power 4 games. OU hasn’t gained 400 yards since the Temple game and that was back on Sept. 13. Of the 14 P4 teams in the mix for a CFP spot, the Sooners have the worst points per drive difference and the second-worst yards per play difference vs. other P4 opponents. Since coming back from a thumb injury, John Mateer has six touchdown passes and seven interceptions in seven games. OU’s offensive efficiency rank is 54th — the worst single unit of any team in contention. OU’s defense does rank fourth in terms of efficiency and that puts it among the best in the country. However, a win at Alabama in which OU was outgained by nearly 200 yards is propping up the Sooners’ résumé. Power rankings indicate that this is a team that isn’t one of the best seven at-large teams out there.
Title odds: +3500
The Rebels will be an interesting topic of conversation this week in the college football world and among the CFP committee itself. How do you appropriately rate a very good offensive team that no longer has its offense-minded head coach, its offensive coordinator and co-offensive coordinator, or its running backs coach? Like, how can this team be anything close to what it was during the season? And that’s a big concern, considering the Rebels’ defensive efficiency rating is 52nd — by far the worst defense among any team being considered for the CFP. Bylaws for the CFP allow for this type of conversation to happen. Just ask Florida State. I’ll keep Ole Miss ahead of OU, which it beat in Norman. However, nothing would surprise me about how the committee ends up handling this unprecedented situation with this team that’s dominant on only one side of the ball.
Title odds: +1000
Notre Dame is a playoff-worthy team. Most power ratings have them as a top-five squad. The debate really shouldn’t be about it being Miami or Notre Dame; it should be about which teams will miss out at the hands of Miami and Notre Dame. But if it’s Miami or Notre Dame for the final spot, then, I’m sorry — that’s not really up for debate. While the power ratings love the Irish, their résumé is flimsy. It’s built on two close losses to good teams and a home win over USC. It is fair to say ND is better now than it was in Week 1. That’s probably true. But so is Miami. In a perfect world, both would make the CFP. But we know this is far from a perfect world, and it’s gotta be Miami over ND if it comes to it.
Let’s compare Miami and Notre Dame’s résumés:
| Miami | Notre Dame | |
| W-L | 10-2 | 10-2 |
| Top 40 wins | 5 | 3 |
| SOS | 28 | 32 |
| O/D Efficiency Ranking | 20/6 | 3/8 |
| Game Control | 6 | 5 |
Note: Miami never trailed in its 27-24 Week 1 win over Notre Dame
Title odds: +15000
The Canes’ biggest crime was losing a conference road game in overtime on the Saturday prior to the initial CFP release. They never trailed in a win over Notre Dame and had a dominant month with very favorable common opponent results compared to the Irish. They’re one of two teams — Oregon being the other — with a top-30 SOS, a top-nine ranking in Sagarin/FPI and SP+, a top-20 offensive and defensive efficiency ranking and a top-10 Game Control number. I feel that has all been ignored or gone unnoticed. Miami has answered the committee’s demand for consistency and more. The Hurricanes’ power rates higher than Oklahoma and Vanderbilt in the three aforementioned computers, and power rates higher than A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama in two of the three. At some point, Miami passing the eye test and the head-to-head win over Notre Dame has to move the Canes up in the rankings, right?
Title odds: +800
The Aggies were run over in the second half in Austin, ending their undefeated run and SEC title hopes. There were some warning signs, given A&M hadn’t faced any of the SEC big boys and was extremely fortunate to win its previous SEC game against South Carolina. While I’m sure they would be far more excited to be in Atlanta than either Georgia or Alabama, getting a little time off before likely hosting a {layoff game at Kyle Field isn’t the worst outcome for a team that — per Sagarin — has the best win of the year at Notre Dame.
Title odds: +800
UGA was quite content to have an off week and then host a CFP game in a few weeks. But then Texas A&M was upset by Texas, which likely didn’t make the Georgia staff too happy. Georgia is the best team in a very pedestrian SEC, as it goes for the lofty SEC standards. The Dawgs had a much harder time putting away a Georgia Tech team that Pitt beat handily a week earlier. The Jackets actually outgained UGA 260-250 in the 16-9 loss. That has to concern Kirby Smart, Mike Bobo and others, since Tech allowed 537 yards to 2-10 BC, 583 yards to N.C. State and 412 to Pitt over the previous three weeks. Blocking Bama’s Tim Keenan might be interesting this week, given UGA will be down C Drew Bobo.
Title odds: +1100
Tech’s SOS isn’t great and six of its 11 wins have come against the bottom third of the FBS. But wow, do the Red Raiders just bludgeon teams! Since they are nearly two-TD favorites and handily defeated the Cougars 29-7 in the first meeting (which didn’t even feel that close), they’ll likely beat BYU a second time. If that happens, there’s a chance Tech is headed toward a first-round bye.
Title odds: +1000
Oregon’s depth and defense was on display in Seattle last Saturday. People talk about how Oregon doesn’t have a good win, and that might be true if you look at the AP Poll. But the Ducks have four top-18 wins according to the Sagarin ratings. Oregon moved up a spot in the CFP last week and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ducks move up again this week. It might be tough to give all three Big Ten teams first-round byes, which means the Ducks could get the benefit of a first-round home game against the sacrificial lamb from the Group of 5.
Title odds: +425
IU got the win in Eugene earlier this year, but now gets the defending champ with a chance to claim the No. 1 overall seed in the CFP. I’m curious to see how this game and result will be different from the one-sided affair last year in Columbus. I think IU will still get a first-round bye even if the Hoosiers lose, but could there be some subliminal thoughts from the committee not to bracket a potential rematch with OSU in the semifinals?
Title odds: +160
You could almost see the exhale from Columbus after a thoroughly dominant win in Ann Arbor to snap the losing streak to Michigan. No. 1 vs. No. 2 is up next in Indy and then, win or lose, the Buckeyes get some time off with a bye into the CFP quarterfinals.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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