The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers were both hanging on to the idea that they could be Super Bowl contenders.
Now it looks like maybe only one of them really could be. Maybe.
The Bills showed they still have some life as a contender left in them when they got two quick turnovers to start the second half in Pittsburgh to help them pull away from the Steelers and win 26-7. It was a big road win for a team that probably will have to go on the road in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Steelers, though they still are tied for their division lead, would be happy at this point to have a shot at the playoffs at all.
Here are my takeaways:
1. If Josh Allen can’t find his MVP form, the Bills won’t be serious Super Bowl contenders
There’s no way around it: This Buffalo Bills team is just not loaded with offensive talent. They do have a strong running game (more on that in a moment), but not nearly enough weapons in the passing game.
That’s probably why Allen hasn’t looked much like he did last season when he won the NFL MVP award. That’s fine. No one expected him to do that again. But it’s also pretty clear these Bills needed him to come close.
Because if he can’t do better than he did on Sunday against a struggling Steelers defense (15 of 23, 123 yards, one touchdown, one interception), and if he can’t start using his legs as a serious weapon again, this Bills team won’t be able to compete with the best teams in the AFC. And that’s a shame for them because the conference looks as wide open as it’s looked, maybe in a decade. This is a really bad year for a player like Allen to regress, because the opportunity for a championship really seems to be there.
2. James Cook remains the lone reason not to count Buffalo out
With Allen not looking like his old MVP self, it’s clear that Cook, their fifth-year running back, is the new MVP of the team. And he’s good enough that he alone could still make the Bills a tough out in the playoffs.
Cook rushed for another 141 yards on Sunday, bringing his career-high total to 1,228 on the season. It was his seventh 100-yard game of the season, and it’s not a coincidence that the Bills are 6-1 in those games.
A running back like that could be huge in the postseason when the weather gets colder, the conditions harsher, and defenses become easier to tire out. It would be a huge advantage for the Bills if they could somehow end up with a home playoff game, though that might be a stretch the way things have gone so far.
But if Cook gets rolling, don’t count the Bills out of anything, even if they just sneak into the playoffs. They’ll still need Allen to turn it on, but Cook sure can buy them the necessary time.
3. Rodgers looks increasingly done
It was a worthwhile gamble for the Steelers to put their season and their Super Bowl dreams in the hands of a 41-year-old quarterback. They were counting on Rodgers rediscovering his greatness one last time.
Instead, what they’re getting has become increasingly hard to watch.
Rodgers is still smart, he still makes great decisions, and at times, he can still unleash his reasonably strong arm. But it’s clear that he’s just not the quarterback he used to be. He doesn’t have anywhere near the necessary mobility to stay out of trouble in the pocket or regularly create outside of it, and his arm strength is diminished enough that his best plays are dump-offs or short throws underneath.
Rodgers is now very much a game manager, which would be fine if the Steelers had a loaded roster. But they don’t, so it seems really unlikely that he can carry them far, even if they do make the playoffs. The Steelers have to know by now that it just won’t be worth it to bring Rodgers back for another year.
4. Whatever happened to the Steel Curtain defense?
One reason the Steelers thought they could get by with an aging quarterback is that they were bringing back most of a defense that finished 12th in the NFL last season. They never expected that this year’s unit would rank in the bottom five.
The Steelers were able to create initial pressure on Allen fairly consistently, but as soon as he made the first rusher miss, the Steelers defense couldn’t contain him. While that’s not unusual at all when playing against Allen, it was also just one of several bad signs.
The worst sign was their inability to tackle on defense. The Steelers gave up 249 rushing yards, and so much of that came after missed chances at early tackles. On a windy day, with Allen struggling early, they had to know the runs were coming, but they didn’t have the players to stop it anymore.
That’s another thing that will kill them if they get to the playoffs, too.
4 ½. What’s next?
The Buffalo Bills (8-4) are still two games back in the AFC East, which is a lot with five games to go. But at least they’re keeping pace with the division leaders. They’ll need to keep that up next Sunday when they play host to Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8). That’s the only way that their showdown with the Patriots (10-2) in New England will really matter in two weeks.
The Steelers (6-6), meanwhile, blew a chance to bury the Ravens (6-6), who they’re tied with atop the AFC North. That has made their showdown on Sunday in Baltimore a must-win for both. They play again in Week 18 in Pittsburgh, too.
Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.
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