Thirty-one teams.
That’s how many would still be alive in a 24-team College Football Playoff right now.
Instead, we’re staring at seven programs that appear safely positioned in the 12-team field — a far narrower group than the sport could offer. And imagine the alternative: a playoff with 16 potential home games. Notre Dame Stadium, Bryant-Denny Stadium and Michigan Stadium are just a few of the venues that could deliver some of the sport’s most electric postseason atmospheres, especially with national-title stakes at their peak.
Another shortcoming of the 12-team format is how 10-win Power 4 teams like Miami, Vanderbilt and Utah can still be left out of a tournament they’ve genuinely earned the right to play in — particularly in seasons that may be among their most memorable. It’s just one more reason I’d like to see the playoff expand further, so every deserving team gets its shot … before eventually being eliminated by Ohio State.
In August, the Big Ten and others began “populating” the idea of an expanded College Football Playoff of 24 or 28 teams. The 24-team model, which seems to have the most support in private circles, would include:
- Four automatic qualifiers from each of the Power 4 conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC)
- Two automatic qualifiers from the Group of 6 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt and Pac-12)
- Six at-large selections to be made by the College Football Playoff selection committee — the only selections the committee gets to make
Which begs the question: How would the 24-team CFP look if the tournament began today?
In my analysis of a 24-team format, 26 Power 4 programs — including eight from the SEC, six from the Big 12, six from the Big Ten, and six from the ACC — would still have a path to the postseason. And that’s before factoring in Notre Dame or the Group of 6 contenders.
Heading into conference championship week, teams that have proven themselves in conference play still have just as much opportunity to win it all as No. 1 Ohio State. That’s a huge win for the sport. It creates a more democratic system for determining the best team, with less debate and more certainty.
The scoreboard has more agency.
And fans have the best chance in the sport’s history to see their team play for — and win — a national title.
Here’s how it works:
This 24-team format features 18 automatic qualifiers
I’ve set it up to look like what you’ll read below and stand in to represent the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The top four teams from each of the Power 4 conferences, based on conference standings, automatically qualify for the CFP. The two highest-ranked Group of 6 teams — not necessarily conference champions — also receive automatic bids. The remaining six at-large spots are filled at the selection committee’s discretion.
Teams are seeded by the selection committee
As the personification of the selection committee, I am encouraged to take into account head-to-head matchups, strength of record, coaching, personnel and quality of out-of-conference play when seeding teams.
Winning a conference championship is a strong indicator for a top-seeded team.
Winning a conference title does not automatically qualify a team for a higher seed than a non-conference champion.
The 24-team playoff’s greatest strength is the addition of two rounds of home games
My top 25, which you can read here, is the basis on which these seedings are assigned.
The first two rounds of a 24-team playoff would feature two rounds of home games. The four teams that advance through the opening rounds will play their next game at a New Year’s Six Bowl in a neutral site semifinal.
Teams seeded No. 1 to No. 8 get a bye and a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 9 to No. 16 each open the tournament with a home playoff game. Teams seeded No. 17 to No. 24 each must play on the road twice to advance to the neutral site quarterfinals.
I need to summarize this, because it’s the best aspect of the 24-team CFP: 16 different campuses host home playoff games.
With that, here is a look at the latest 24-team CFP bracket:
FIRST-ROUND BYE, SECOND-ROUND HOME GAME
1. Ohio State (12-0), Big Ten, Previously Ranked: 1
The Buckeyes are holding opponents to 7.8 points per game, which is on pace to be the fewest PPG allowed by any team in a season since Oklahoma in 1986.
2. Indiana (12-0), Big Ten, Previously Ranked: 2
Indiana is the only FBS team to have a point differential over 400 points. The Hoosiers rank second in both PPG (44.3) and PPG allowed (10.9).
3. Georgia (11-1), SEC, Previously Ranked: 4
The Bulldogs lead all FBS teams in fourth quarter points allowed with 37.
4. Oregon (11-1), Big Ten, Previously Ranked: 5
Oregon has won 12 straight road games, the longest active streak in the FBS — and is 17-1 in Big Ten play since joining the conference last season.
5. Ole Miss (11-1), SEC, Previously Ranked: 6
The Rebels are 11-1 through 12 games for the first time ever, with this being just their second 11-win season all-time (2023). Ole Miss also ranks third among FBS teams in total offense with 5,977 yards.
6. Texas A&M (11-1), SEC, Previously Ranked: 3
Texas A&M is tied for the most sacks of any FBS team with 41, and ranks ninth among Power 4 teams in big plays (rushes of 10-plus yards and receptions of 20-plus yards).
7. Oklahoma (10-2), SEC, At-Large, Previously Ranked: 7
Oklahoma is the only FBS team with five wins over AP-ranked opponents and is tied for the nation’s lead in sacks with 41.
8. Texas Tech (11-1), Big 12, Previously Ranked: 8
Texas Tech ranks second among FBS teams in point differential (383), third in PPG (43.2), third in PPG allowed (11.3), tied for third in turnovers forced (26), and tied for fifth in sacks (37).
FIRST-ROUND HOME GAME
9. Texas (9-3), SEC, At-Large, Previously Ranked: 10
With a 3-2 record against top 10 teams and an embarrassing loss to 3-9 Florida, not even a win against previously undefeated Texas A&M will get the Longhorns into the 12-team CFP.
10. BYU (11-1), Big 12, Previously Ranked: 9
The Cougars must defeat Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship to ensure their inclusion into the 12-team CFP unlike other one-loss teams ranked ahead of them. In a 24-team CFP, they’d feel as cozy at home watching Selection Sunday as Georgia, Oregon, Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
11. Miami (Fla.) (10-2), ACC, Previously Ranked 11
The Hurricanes are exactly the kind of team fans want to see in the CFP — just as many will likely see Notre Dame, a team Miami beat, make the playoff. But for now, they’re at the mercy of a selection committee that has, in recent weeks, decided Miami isn’t worthy of competing for a national title.
12. Notre Dame (10-2), Independent, At-Large, Previously Ranked: 13
Notre Dame benefits tremendously from being independent under most CFP formats. With no conference schedule to navigate and its flexible arrangement with the ACC, the Irish enjoy all the advantages of conference membership — without the downsides. That includes the ability to secure an at-large berth that might otherwise go to the fifth-best team in a Power 4 conference.
13. Alabama (10-2), SEC, Previously Ranked: 12
With two losses, the Crimson Tide aren’t just playing for the SEC Championship — they’re playing for their CFP lives on Saturday. It’s hard to imagine a three-loss team making the 12-team playoff, especially one that lost to a 5–7 Florida State team.
14. Vanderbilt (10-2), SEC, At-Large, Previously Ranked: 14
The Commodores, like the Canes, are another 10-win team that deserves a shot at the national title. Wins over ranked Missouri and Tennessee, combined with QB Diego Pavia’s remarkable season — more than 3,100 passing yards, 800 rushing yards, and 36 total touchdowns — warrant at least one more opportunity to see just how good Vanderbilt could be in a historic 2025 season.
15. Utah (10-2), Big 12, Previously Ranked: 16
Among 10-win Power 4 teams, no program has received less attention than Utah. Even with QB Devon Dampier throwing for more than 2,100 yards and rushing for nearly 700, the Utes won’t sniff the CFP in its 12-team format.
ON THE ROAD
16. USC (9-3), Big Ten, Previously Ranked: NR
USC has never made the College Football Playoff, and Lincoln Riley team has never beaten a top 10 opponent at USC. In this model, they’d break into the CFP and, with a win, would have the chance to earn Riley’s first victory against a top 10 team.
17. Virginia (10-2), ACC, Previously Ranked: 17
The Cavaliers are enjoying their best season since 1989 and, with a win on Saturday, will enjoy the program’s first 11-win season and CFP berth in history.
18. Michigan (9-3), Big Ten, Previously Ranked: 15
The Wolverines’ impressive nine-win season with a true freshman QB ends without a berth in the CFP in a 12-team format. But the selection committee could use one of its at-large selections to grant them entry into the 24-team format, especially as Michigan finished tied with USC in the league standings.
19. North Texas (11-1), Group Of 6, Previously Ranked: 18
The Mean Green have already delivered the program’s best season with 11 regular-season wins. With a victory in the American Championship Game, they have a chance to secure a spot in the CFP as the highest-ranked Group of 6 team.
20. Navy (9-2), Group of 6, Previously Ranked: 19
The Midshipmen have delivered one of the best stories of the past two seasons, with a chance to record back-to-back 10-win seasons. Despite matching North Texas and Tulane in conference wins, Navy misses out on the American title game after losing the tiebreaker to the Mean Green. In a 24-team CFP model, the Midshipmen likely would have become the first service academy ever invited to the playoff.
21. Tulane (10-2), Group of 6, Previously Ranked: NR
The Green Wave, like North Texas and Ole Miss, are coached by a man who’s already accepted another job — yet his team still has a shot at a conference title this Saturday and a possible national championship six weeks from now.
22. Pittsburgh (8-4), ACC, Previously Ranked: 22
The Panthers benefit from the criteria that allows the top four teams in each Power 4 conference entry into the CFP according to league standings. While they aren’t among the nation’s top 25 teams, they rank as the third-best team in the ACC.
23. Houston (9-3), Big 12, Previously Ranked: NR
The Cougars have been one of the four best teams in the Big 12 for second half of the season, and rather than be rewarded for winning five of their last seven games with a trip to the CFP, they’re one of those teams staring at Selection Sunday knowing they needed to go 11-1 just have a chance in a 12-team playoff.
24. Duke (7-5), ACC, Previously Ranked: NR
At 7-5, the Blue Devils are the warts on this season’s 12-team CFP. In 2023, the committee famously left out 13-0 ACC champion Florida State. In 2024, its decision to rank Big 12 champ Arizona State No. 12 and highest-ranked G6 champion Boise State No. 9 drew criticism, since the protocol allowed both teams to receive first-round byes.
This season, the Blue Devils could sneak into the CFP as an unranked team and ACC champion — all because no ACC team has been inside the top 10 for nearly a month.
Above is how the CFP would look if it ended today, but there will be changes and teams not included in the bracket still have a chance to earn entry into the tournament.
Teams on the bubble have taken on losses, but not enough for them not to crawl into the top quarter of their conference, and, with 10 or even nine wins in the regular season, could find themselves in an automatic qualifier spot.
Every game matters. Rivalry games matter more.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.
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