It took 10 wins to get the NFC West title last season, but this year, 12 might only get you third place.
You know a division is good when the third-place team has a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs. That’s where the 49ers (9-4) are, according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator. The 49ers are entering their bye week in Week 14 and trail the Rams (9-3) and Seahawks (9-3) each by a half-game. All three are in the top 10 of the latest FOX Sports NFL Power Rankings, but only one will get a division title.
There are two more head-to-head games between the three teams. The Seahawks host the Rams in a Thursday night game in Week 16 before traveling to San Francisco to take on the 49ers in Week 18. Seattle has two of its three losses this season to Los Angeles and San Francisco, so it’ll need a strong finish to avoid losing the key head-to-head tiebreakers to those two teams.
Here’s how the NFC West will shake out in the next five weeks. All three are almost locks to make the playoffs, so it’s just deciding which team gets the home game, if not a first-round bye. Don’t rule out a division showdown in the playoffs here either:
Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay might be having their best season together yet, with the quarterback being the MVP frontrunner prior to Week 13. (Photo by G Fiume/Getty Images)
Playoff probability: 97%, per The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
Remaining opponents: at Cardinals (Week 14), vs. Lions (Week 15), at Seahawks (Week 16), at Falcons (Week 17), Cardinals (Week 18). The Rams’ remaining opponents have a combined 26-34 record.
Previous games vs. Seahawks, 49ers: Lost to San Francisco, 26-23, in Week 5; defeated San Francisco, 42-26, in Week 10; defeated Seattle, 21-19, in Week 11
Momentum: The Rams took a surprising loss against the Panthers at Carolina to end a six-game win streak on Sunday, but they catch a break in getting the struggling Cardinals twice in the final five weeks. They have the easiest remaining schedule of the three, and even with the Panthers’ loss, they have an easy path to the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the first-round bye that comes with that. Matthew Stafford gets to see his old team, the Lions, in Week 15, but it’s a gift to be as good as the Rams and still be able to close the year with the Falcons and Cardinals. If the Rams can go to Seattle and win in Week 16, the division is theirs to lose.
Sam Darnold and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have formed one of the league’s top QB-WR duos this season, with the former leading the NFL in receiving. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Playoff probability: 95%, per The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
Remaining opponents: at Falcons (Week 14), vs. Colts (Week 15), vs. Rams (Week 16), at Panthers (Week 17), at 49ers (Week 18). The Seahawks’ remaining opponents have a combined 37-25 record.
Previous games vs. Rams, 49ers: Lost to San Francisco, 17-13, in Week 1; lost to Los Angeles, 21-19, in Week 11
Momentum: Seattle has won six of seven games and has the NFL’s best point differential at plus-133. The Seahawks’ only problem is that two of their three losses are to the teams they’re battling for the division. They have the toughest remaining schedule of the three (and the fourth-toughest remaining in the NFL), with potential revenge games in the final three weeks against Los Angeles and San Francisco. Three of their remaining five are on the road, but they’re 5-1 on the road — only the Patriots (6-0) have a better road record this season. Seattle’s three losses are by a combined nine points, so it might be easy to flip close losses in the first divisional meetings to wins in the rematch.
Christian McCaffrey has had a strong 2025 campaign, putting him among the frontrunners for Comeback Player of the Year. (Photo by Thien-An Truong/Getty Images)
Playoff probability: 91%, per The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
Remaining opponents: Bye (Week 14), vs. Titans (Week 15), at Colts (Week 16), vs. Bears (Week 17), vs. Seahawks (Week 18). The 49ers’ remaining opponents have a combined 27-21 record.
Previous games vs. Rams, Seahawks: Defeated San Francisco, 17-13, in Week 1; defeated Los Angeles, 26-23, in Week 5; lost to Los Angeles, 42-26, in Week 10
Momentum: The late bye plus three of the remaining four at home is a plus, though the 49ers’ last three games should all be against teams battling for playoff position. San Francisco’s defense has persisted through significant injuries, holding its last two opponents to under 10 points. Few NFL teams can lose a starting quarterback for eight games and stay in the hunt like this. A 6-2 road record suggests that even if San Francisco opens the playoffs on the road as a wild card, it’ll be a dangerous team to face as they get healthier.
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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