Well, if we don’t know anything else about this NFL season, we know that the Chiefs are in trouble.
With that in mind, let’s dive into why I think they’re going to struggle this week, despite the fact they’re at home against the Chargers.
Here’s how I’m wagering on NFL Week 15.
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I understand how power rankings are made and why lines are set for games, but that doesn’t mean I have to agree with the result of the process.
There’s no reason the Chiefs should still be power rated as high as they are.
They have lost four of their last five games, and they failed to cover their lone win in this stretch. The Chiefs have fallen short repeatedly in one-score games this season, too, but that’s a metric we need to reevaluate or at least discuss the nuance of the results.
K.C. lost one-score games to the Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys and Bills, but the Chiefs needed late scores to make those one-score games, and each of those contests ended with the opposing team taking a knee.
Those games were not truly that close.
The Chiefs haven’t won big moments this season. They have errors on offense throughout every game. It might be the quarterback, the play-calling is poor, a receiver drops a pass or the offensive line misses a block. It’s all a mess. They cannot score against a good defense and the Chargers have one of those, ranked 10th in DVOA and having playmakers at every level.
Additionally, Kansas City still has offensive line injuries, even if the team does get some guys back. Last week was also the first time I saw the Chiefs’ offensive superstars show visible anger about their lack of success.
On the defensive side, Kansas City’s defense does two things that don’t help the squad win games. Guys on that unit cannot rush the passer and they are awful defending third-and-long passes. Those go hand-in-hand, so it’s not a surprise. The Chargers’ offensive line is missing both tackles and quarterback Justin Herbert is getting crushed every game. However, they keep going and fighting.
Also, can the Chiefs’ pass rush take advantage? They haven’t all season. Why would it start on Sunday?
I don’t buy it.
PICK: Chargers (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points or win outright
I like the Patriots to score against the Bills this weekend.
The Patriots are coming off a bye and the offense is cooking. It is 10th in DVOA and quarterback Drake Maye is playing so well right now that he’s got the second-shortest odds for MVP.
Maye throws a fantastic deep ball, and he’s excellent when pressured, which isn’t common for a young quarterback. He’s first in the league in quarterback rating under pressure. Even better for New England is that the Patriots pair Maye with a running game that seems to be improving by the week. They mix run and pass well, and after a bye week, I’d imagine the offense has thought of some creative ways to attack the Bills defense.
Now, on the other hand, the Bills’ defense is bad. No way to sugarcoat it. It is 22nd in DVOA and against good offenses, it has struggled to prevent scoring. It allowed 34 points to the Bengals last week and just a few weeks ago, it gave up 32 points to the Bucs.
Mix in 23 points to the Davis Mills-led Texans, and it has not been pretty.
Again, I like the Patriots off the bye to imagine creative ways to attack the Buffalo D. They will attack the porous run defense, and they won’t be hesitant to continue to use what works. Too many teams try to pass the ball when they should be running it.
PICK: Patriots team total Over 25.5 points
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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