All the right favorites came through for the public betting masses in NFL Week 15 odds, but arguably none more so than the Bills.
That is, until the Sunday night game.
Sometimes, that’s all it takes to turn a good day for bettors into more of a so-so day, or even a winner for the bookmakers.
“The Vikings did us a massive favor there,” BetMGM trading manager Tristan Davis said.
More on the weekend that was, as oddsmakers at sportsbooks across the country recap NFL betting in Week 15.
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How ‘Bout Them … Vikings?
The Cowboys’ season was pretty much on the line Sunday night. Entering the game with a record of 6-6-1, Dallas needed a win to maintain any reasonable chance of making the playoffs.
The Cowboys closed as 5-point home favorites vs. the Vikings. And bettors didn’t even really need Dak Prescott & Co. to cover the spread. They just needed Dallas to win the game, to finish off all those moneyline parlays.
As Davis said prior to the Vikings-Cowboys kickoff: “The parlay risk is starting to build up.”
The only thing that could stop it: a Minnesota outright win, which is what the bookmakers got, as J.J. McCarthy and the Vikes notched a 34-26 upset.
On a day when the Bills made a huge comeback, and the now-popular Rams won and covered vs. the Lions, and four double-digit favorites won and covered — Eagles, Jaguars, Texans and 49ers — Minnesota saved the oddsmakers’ day.
Or spoiled the bettors’ day, as was also the case.
“Considering the early results and the majority of big favorites covering, we actually came out of it OK,” Davis said.
And if the Cowboys had won?
“It would’ve been a significant swing” toward the public masses, Davis said.
The SuperBook in Las Vegas didn’t mind the Vikings’ upset, either. But risk manager Casey Degnon noted that the total of 47.5 was a bigger concern, and that fell in favor of the bettors, who piled on the Over.
“We needed the Under in Sunday Night Football. That was the difference between a positive or negative outcome, even with the Vikes winning outright,” Degnon said. “Overall, it was a small losing day. A couple of the bigger decisions didn’t go our way.
“But enough ‘dogs won to keep it from being a big losing day.”
Dollar Bills
In Sunday’s early window of games, Bills vs. Patriots was the marquee matchup. New England entered with the better record, at 11-2 straight up (SU) and 9-4 against the spread (ATS), while Buffalo was 9-4 SU/6-7 ATS.
But the Bills were 2.5-point road favorites.
The Pats raced out of the gate, with QB Drake Maye scoring two first-quarter touchdowns and TreVeyon Henderson making it 21-0 on a 52-yard TD run in the second quarter.
New England held a 24-7 lead at halftime. But Josh Allen led a big comeback, and the Bills ultimately won and covered 35-31.
Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said there was significant in-game action on Buffalo moneyline, hoping for that big comeback victory. And no doubt, Caesars wasn’t alone in seeing such action. DraftKings, FanDuel and everyone else surely saw plenty of pregame and in-game Buffalo cash.
“The Bills were a popular selection both before and during the game, both on the spread and moneyline. Their comeback was thoroughly appreciated by bettors,” Feazel said.
In fact, the Bills’ victory was the best outcome of the day for Caesars customers. Second-best: The Texans, who — as 10-point home favorites — dumped the Cardinals 40-20. It was Houston’s sixth consecutive win (5-1 ATS).
“The Texans are slowly becoming a team that many playoff teams might want to avoid,” Feazel said. “Bettors have been noticing this for the past couple of weeks and were not hesitant to lay the 9- to 10-point spread on the Texans all week.”
Old Man Rivers and More
Philip Rivers’ return drew plenty of interest Sunday, too. Could the 44-year-old QB ride in and help save the Colts’ once-promising season?
The answer? Almost. But he at least helped the Colts cover as 13.5-point road underdogs vs. the Seahawks. In fact, the Colts led most of the game but lost 18-16 on a 56-yard field goal in the waning seconds.
Some bettors jumped on the Rivers bandwagon simply for the story alone. Heck, I took Colts moneyline +650, just on the FOMO, in case Indy pulled off the upset.
But the masses were mostly on the Seahawks. So Caesars needed the Colts to hang around in this game, and it turned out to be one of the book’s best results Sunday.
“The anticipated Philip Rivers return certainly did not disappoint. While he did not look like an Olympian on the field, he certainly competed in a game with the spread at -13.5 for the Seahawks all week.”
As is the case every week, bookmakers also needed the dreadful Saints. And got ‘em. New Orleans was a 2.5-point home underdog and topped the Panthers 20-17, winning on a final-second field goal.
“We continue to be Saints fans week in and week out. That was no different this afternoon, as bettors were backing the Carolina Panthers,” Feazel said Sunday night.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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