The Cinderella stories ended.
Anecdotes about the plucky Group of 5 teams making the College Football Playoff are just that now. What’s left are the eight best teams in the sport, and each one of them has a realistic chance of winning the national title on Jan. 19.
No. 1 Indiana, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech haven’t played football in three weeks, and their four opponents expect to take advantage of that. Will there be an edge to having played and won in this year’s CFP, or are good teams just good — whether they played two weeks ago or on Mars tomorrow? That’s what this week is for finding out.
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Here are my latest CFP bracket predictions:
Quarterfinal Round
Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Winner: Ohio State
(Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
This rematch of the 2003 BCS National Championship Game is likely going to be won at the line of scrimmage — particularly Ohio State’s offensive line versus Miami’s defensive line. Hurricanes edge rusher Rueben Bain, a unanimous All-America selection, and edge rusher Akheem Mesidor have combined for 17.0 sacks and five forced fumbles this season.
Knowing Indiana sacked Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin five times in the Big Ten Championship Game — after Sayin had been sacked just six times in the entire regular season — expect Miami defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman to find creative ways to get his two best pass-rushers up the field against an OSU offensive line that struggled in pass protection and to run the football. Against IU, OSU managed just 58 rushing yards on 26 attempts.
However, the Buckeyes have the best players in the sport at wideout in Jeremiah Smith, the Thorpe Award winner, and at safety in Caleb Downs, and they are riding a four-game winning streak in the CFP.
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Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (Thursday, noon ET)
Winner: Oregon
(Photo by CFP/Getty Images)
I realize that Texas Tech fields one of the four best defenses in the country, and the Red Raiders have outscored opponents 245-43 — average of 40.8 points per game to just 7.2 — in their past six games. But I also believe Texas Tech has not faced a foe as tough as Oregon has shown itself to be this season, and the Ducks have the lived experience of playing on stage like this one that the Red Raiders have not.
For Dan Lanning’s squad, this postseason is a chance for it to wipe away the pain of its Rose Bowl demise last postseason and a chance to assert itself as one of the four best teams in the country by beating the No. 4 team.
I expect that prodigious Ducks running back room featuring Noah Whittington, Dierre Hill Jr. and Jordon Davison to set a physical tone against a Texas Tech front that hasn’t seen a running game quite like that one built in Eugene. The trio have combined to rush for 2,225 yards (7.1 yards per rush) with 26 touchdowns this season.
Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (Thursday, 4 p.m. ET)
Winner: Indiana
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
Alabama showed itself to be the most resilient team on Dec. 19 when the Crimson Tide traveled to Oklahoma and overcame a 17-point deficit to win on the road. However, a slow start will be severely difficult to overcome against a Hoosiers team that prides itself on starting fast and running over its competition.
And Indiana doesn’t make a habit of giving the ball away like OU did in the first round of the CFP. Indiana ranks No. 1 in turnover margin (plus-17) and features the Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. It’s a team that has already shown it can beat what was the best team in the sport in Ohio State and will get one of its two best wide receivers back from injury in time for kickoff in Omar Cooper Jr.
Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET)
Winner: Georgia
(Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
While this is a rematch of a regular-season game the Dawgs won 43-35, there’s a new head coach on the sideline for Ole Miss in Pete Golding. Yes, the Rebels won in their first CFP appearance, but Georgia ain’t Tulane.
And Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has been unbeatable in rematches in the same season — 4-0. The Dawgs will know the offense at Ole Miss is about containing quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. While the two got loose in the first three quarters of their Oct. 18 match, Georgia shut down Ole Miss in the fourth quarter. Chambliss completed just 1 of 10 pass attempts for one yard, and Georgia held the ball for 13 minutes and four seconds in the last 15 minutes of the game.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him @RJ_Young.
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