There’s plenty of intrigue around all four matchups on the College Football Playoff quarterfinal oddsboard — but for bookmakers, one is becoming more concerning than the others.
“The big one that we’re really circling and seeing one-way action on is the Ole Miss–Georgia game. That’s the one that’s gonna have the biggest impact,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said.
Bookmakers and sharp bettors offer their insights on CFP quarterfinal odds for each contest, starting with the New Year’s Eve Miami vs. Ohio State clash.
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Cotton Candy
No. 2 Ohio State is 12-1 straight up (SU), with its only loss coming to No. 1 Indiana in the Big Ten title game. Just as important for our purposes, the Buckeyes are 10-2-1 against the spread (ATS), the second-best spread-covering mark in the nation this season.
Ryan Day’s troops are well rested, too, getting a bye into the quarterfinals.
No. 10 Miami (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS) made an impressive showing in the CFP’s first round, at least on defense. The Hurricanes stifled Texas A&M 10-3 as a 3-point road underdog.
Caesars Sports opened Ohio State as a 7.5-point Cotton Bowl favorite, and that line quickly moved out to -10 by Dec. 20. Since then, the Buckeyes have dipped to -9 a couple of times.
A few hours before this 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff, Ohio State sits at -9.5.
“It’s two-way action. They’re taking Miami on the moneyline or laying Ohio State -9.5,” Feazel said. “The need here is gonna be Ohio State to win and not cover.”
The total is also intriguing, with sharp bettors bringing the number down and the public betting masses plenty enthused to wager on the Over.
“The big action coming in has been on the total. There was sharp money on Under 43.5, 42.5 and 41.5. The strength of these two teams is their defenses,” Feazel said. “But as the total has come down, the public has been on the Over.”
As of 1 p.m. ET, 6.5 hours before kickoff, the total is at its low point of 40.5.
Ducks a l’Orange
No. 5 Oregon (12-1 SU/9-4 ATS) coasted through the first round with a 51-34 win over No. 12 James Madison, though the Ducks didn’t cover as hefty 21-point favorites.
No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1 SU/11-2 ATS), which got the final CFP bye, is the No. 1 spread-covering team in the nation. However, on Dec. 20, Caesars opened Oregon as a 1-point Orange Bowl favorite.
And the line has gone up since, with stops at Oregon -1.5 and -2 on the way to -2.5 by Monday, for this noon ET New Year’s Day kickoff.
“The sharper side laid the 1, 1.5 and 2 with Oregon. The expectation here is that, although Texas Tech is good, it’s just not on the same level as Oregon,” Feazel said. “But there’s a decent amount of two-way action.
“There’s a little bit more on Oregon, both on the spread and the moneyline. But there have been a lot of Texas Tech and Oregon backers throughout the season, and I anticipate that’ll be the case here.”
The total is down a point, from 52.5 to 51.5.
“There’s slight sharp action on Under 52.5. Texas Tech has a very stingy defense,” Feazel said.
CFP Sharp Side
Speaking of sharp action, college football betting expert Paul Stone is among those whose interest is piqued by Oregon vs. Texas Tech.
Stone noted that, of the remaining teams, Oregon and Texas Tech are the only ones to rank in the top 10 nationally in scoring offense, total offense, scoring defense and total defense. He likes the short underdog Red Raiders to cover +2.5 vs. the Ducks.
“Texas Tech was at its best in its three biggest games this season,” Stone said. “The Red Raiders went to Salt Lake City in late September and dominated Utah, then later did the same to BYU on two occasions, during the regular season and in the Big 12 Championship Game.
“The Red Raiders won those contests by a combined margin of 97-24, with all three victories by 22 points or more. I think Texas Tech will take Oregon down to the wire and possibly get the outright victory.”
Coming Up Roses
Indiana (13-0 SU/8-5 ATS) is arguably the story of the season, or even the past two seasons. Long one of the worst programs in college football, the Hoosiers are in their second straight College Football Playoff.
And this time, they’re the No. 1 seed, heading into a quarterfinal clash vs. No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl, which kicks off at 4 p.m. ET on Thursday.
Caesars Sports opened Indiana as a 6-point favorite, and the Hoosiers quickly advanced to -6.5/-7 on what Feazel termed sharp action. Indiana remains -7 as of Wednesday afternoon.
Alabama (11-3 SU/8-5-1 ATS) is coming off a 34-24 first-round victory as a 1.5-point road underdog vs. Oklahoma.
Feazel said action on this matchup is similar to Miami-Ohio State.
“There are a lot of backers here on Alabama moneyline. It’s not every day that you can get Alabama at +200,” Feazel said of customers attracted to a Crimson Tide outright upset. “Bettors are also laying Indiana -7 on the spread.
“I assume our need will be that Super Bowl middle, Indiana to win, but Alabama to cover.”
SEC Sugar
The finale in College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds features a pair of SEC rivals, for an 8 p.m. ET Thursday clash in the Sugar Bowl.
No. 3 Georgia (12-1 SU/6-7 ATS) got a first-round bye, while No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1 SU/8-5 ATS) stomped No. 11 Tulane 41-10, easily covering as a 17-point home favorite.
These two teams met in the regular season. The Bulldogs overcame a 35-26 fourth-quarter deficit to win 43-35, narrowly covering as 7-point home favorites.
This time around, Caesars opened Georgia as a 6-point favorite and reached -7 a couple of times. Over the past couple of days, the line bounced between Georgia -6.5/-6, and it’s -6.5 on Wednesday afternoon.
“There’s a little sharp action on Ole Miss +7 and +6.5. But the public is all over Georgia. It’s one-way traffic on the Bulldogs,” Feazel said, noting UGA action is on more than just the game itself. “Everybody is interested in Georgia futures, similar to last year with Ohio State.
“So they’re betting Georgia on the spread and moneyline in this game but also on Georgia to make the final and on championship futures.”
Plus, the public betting masses will almost assuredly finish off their CFP moneyline parlays with Georgia, which could make Thursday night’s decision massive for bookmakers far and wide.
“It’s a very similar scenario to what we see each week in the NFL, with parlays going to Sunday Night Football,” Feazel said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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