This time last week, the Ravens were on the verge of elimination.
A Week 17 loss to the favored Packers or a win by the favored Steelers over the Browns would mean the end of the season for Baltimore — one of the preseason favorites in the AFC.
However, the Ravens got both the results they needed, with two upsets to keep their season alive, at least for another week.
A week after winning in Green Bay, the Ravens will now need another road win, but this time in Pittsburgh. The winner of this game wins the AFC North and gets a home game as the 4-seed in the AFC.
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Will two-time MVP Lamar Jackson shake off a disappointing, injury-riddled regular season and lead his team back to the playoffs? Or will it be Aaron Rodgers — who’s perhaps in his final season — with one more shot at a playoff run?
I prefer the Steelers as home ‘dogs, as these games are traditionally close and low scoring. This leads me to my best bet for the NFL regular-season finale — Under 41.5 total points scored.
Since Jackson was drafted by the Ravens in 2018, 11 of the 16 Ravens-Steelers meetings since have stayed under 40 combined points. Many only reached the 20s, granted the last three have all eclipsed 40.
It’s not always wise to use games from multiple seasons ago between two teams as data points because the players change so often. But in this case, I think it’s pertinent because we still have the same two head coaches and rosters that are not all that different from previous versions.
Jackson is on track to return again from injury this Sunday, but the star quarterback has not looked healthy since very early in the season.
On the Steelers side, an already limited offense is without its best wide receiver, DK Metcalf, again this week, as he serves the final game of his two-game suspension.
We’ve got potentially compromised offenses, January weather and two teams who typically play low-scoring games to begin with. These are all ingredients for the AFC North finale to be an ugly, defensive struggle.
PICK: Under 41.5 points scored by both teams combined
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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