The final four playoff quarterbacks are as eclectic as they come. They’re all in different phases of their careers, including one being a backup. And that actually makes these QBs easy to rank.
Despite that ease, it’s anyone’s guess as to who wins the Super Bowl. There’s an easy case for each team and each QB to win it all — just like there’s an easy case for them to lose this weekend.
So let’s get into just that. For each QB, let’s focus on why the signal-caller can win Super Bowl LX — and why they can’t.
Why he’ll win the Super Bowl: The NFL is full of surprises, and Stidham has quietly developed under two of the brightest offensive minds and best quarterback developers in the NFL: Sean Payton and Josh McDaniels. (I know McDaniels gets a lot of crap as a HC, but look at how he maximized guys not named Tom Brady — such as Matt Cassel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Mac Jones and now Drake Maye.) There’s an outside chance that Stidham looks competent and confident in Payton’s system. That’s the unlikely outcome.
The clearer path for Stidham to win a Super Bowl is by being mostly invisible. Denver’s defense showed the ability to generate takeaways last week. The Broncos have a solid group of pass-catchers, led by one of the league’s best possession receivers in Courtland Sutton. Running back J.K. Dobbins could be back to help the ground game. Maybe Stidham can avoid mistakes and let the other guys win the game for him.
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Jarrett Stidham has yet to attempt a single pass over the past two seasons with the Broncos. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Why he won’t: His first game will come against the Patriots and McDaniels in the AFC title game. It was McDaniels who loved Stidham coming out of the 2019 draft. But McDaniels will also know all of Stidham’s strengths and weaknesses, which the offensive coordinator will relay to their defensive coaching staff. And that’s a defense that didn’t need any more help, given that they just forced four interceptions out of C.J. Stroud.
On top of that matchup issue for Stidham, there is the matter of inexperience. He has just four career starts and none in the playoffs. To start a game of this magnitude? It’ll be another world. And the stage only gets bigger, obviously, if Denver wins on Sunday.
Why he’ll win the Super Bowl: There’s a chance that Darnold will not play from behind at any point in these playoffs. When he’s leading this year, his touchdown percentage is 5.3, his interception percentage is 2.4 and his yards per attempt is 9.0. When he’s trailing, that touchdown percentage falls to 5, his interception percentage jumps to 3.1 and his yards per attempt is 8.5. In short, he’s better with the lead.
The Seahawks are designed to get him a lead. Seattle has an excellent run game. It has an even better defense. The team’s identity is designed to highlight everyone else, which often means Darnold can simply ride the wave to victory.
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When Sam Darnold plays mistake-free football, the Seahawks have proven to be especially tough to beat. (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)
Why he won’t: We’ve all seen the way Darnold can struggle in big moments. He has a startling propensity for four-interception games, even in his post-Jets tenure. He threw four interceptions as recently as November against — who else — the Rams.
Darnold is a supremely talented quarterback, but he seems to struggle with compounding errors. One leads to another leads to another. And the Rams defense, in particular, knows how to make him make mistakes. And the two defenses he could face in the Super Bowl are, on paper, even better.
Why he’ll win the Super Bowl: Even with Maye’s play slipping slightly against the Texans (best defense in the NFL) and the Chargers (a top-10 defense), he remains one of the most gifted passers in the league and is dangerous as both a runner and passer. His propensity for big plays must be a headache for opposing coaches.
It’s not a matter of if he’s going to complete a bomb for a touchdown. It’s when. His knowledge of the game has also improved drastically, even since Week 1 of this season.
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Drake Maye has been a bit turnover-prone in the first postseason games of his career. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Why he won’t: He has had an interception in both his postseason games thus far, which wouldn’t be so bad if he hadn’t combined those turnovers with five sacks per game and three total fumbles lost. Maye has a propensity to want to play hero ball on third down, and that opens the door for sack-fumbles. Which opens the door for points off turnovers.
The Broncos and/or the NFC champs could capitalize upon this weakness in a way that we haven’t seen opposing defenses do just yet.
Why he’ll win the Super Bowl: Among the final four, he’s the only QB who has done it before. We saw against the Bears that Stafford doesn’t mind waiting out younger and more impetuous QBs (like Caleb Williams). We also saw against the Panthers that Stafford can step into gear and outduel a lesser QB (like Bryce Young).
Both those qualities could prove crucial in beating Darnold and/or an inexperienced AFC champion QB.
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Matthew Stafford is the favorite to win MVP, but he hasn’t played like it in the playoffs thus far. (Photo by Kara Durrette/Getty Images)
Why he won’t: We certainly haven’t seen Stafford’s best this postseason. He has not been dominant for 60 minutes in either game. And he’s actually looked downright sloppy for extended periods. You can chalk those slumps up to underestimating the Panthers — and bad weather in Chicago.
But you can also weigh the importance of the fact that, maybe, a 37-year-old Stafford (who turns 38 the day before the Super Bowl) isn’t as sharp as he should be to win four consecutive games. The defenses he’ll have to go through to secure a second ring are also in another class compared to the ones he just narrowly vanquished.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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