NFL conference championship odds are front and center on the American sports betting landscape. The Super Bowl is still more than two weeks out, on Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium.
But there’s a semi-prevailing attitude, mainly on social media, that the Big Game is actually Sunday night in Seattle.
Some oddsmakers share that opinion.
“That’s our position, as well. This is the Super Bowl. The Rams and the Seahawks are the top two teams in our power rankings,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “We don’t see the AFC as being at the same level.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on both matchups, as we delve into NFL conference championship betting nuggets.
NFL Rocks on FOX
Rams-Seahawks is the second game on Championship Sunday, at 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX. But it’s No. 1 in betting intrigue.
That’s due in part to power rankings, as Feazel noted. It’s also due to past performance. Los Angeles and Seattle played two close games this season, most recently a Week 16 screamer that the Seahawks won 38-37 as 1.5-point home favorites.
In Week 11, the Rams were 3-point home favorites and edged the Seahawks 21-19. So the home team won both games, but the road team covered the spread.
“Those were two of our most-bet games of the season,” Feazel said.
Top-seeded Seattle is 15-3 straight up (SU) — riding an eight-game win streak — and a money-making 13-5 against the spread (ATS). In the NFL Divisional Round, the Seahawks were 7-point home favorites and flattened the 49ers 41-6.
No. 5 Los Angeles is 14-5 SU/11-8 ATS, with a pair of close road playoff wins: 34-31 as a 10.5-point favorite vs. the Panthers, and a 20-17 overtime thriller as a 3.5-point favorite vs. the Bears.
In NFC Championship Game odds, Caesars opened the Seahawks -2.5 vs. the Rams. The spread briefly got to Seattle -3 on Monday, then fell back to -2.5, where it remained Thursday afternoon.
“Right now, we’re seeing a lot of Seahawks money come in, on both the spread and the moneyline. But I don’t anticipate this getting back to 3,” Feazel said. “If anything, I see sharper money coming in on the Rams, closer to game time.
“We’ll likely need the Rams on Sunday night.”
Picking the Pats
Much like the Seahawks, the Patriots (16-3 SU/14-5 ATS) are a spread-covering machine this season. New England is 5-0 SU and ATS in its last five games, including a 28-16 win as a 3.5-point home favorite vs. the Texans in the Divisional Round.
The Broncos (15-3 SU/8-10 ATS) are far less successful at covering the number. But Denver did so last week, edging the Bills 33-30 in overtime as a 1.5-point home favorite.
However, as everyone now knows, the Broncos lost QB Bo Nix to a fractured ankle. So Caesars opened the Patriots as 4.5-point road favorites in AFC Championship Game odds, for Sunday’s 3 p.m. ET kickoff.
That line stretched to Pats -5.5 within minutes on Sunday. Since Tuesday, New England has toggled between -5/-4.5 several times, and the Patriots are -4.5 as of Thursday afternoon.
“There’s obviously a big odds shift, week over week. If Nix was playing, we would’ve probably had the Broncos -1.5 or -2.5,” Feazel said. “We flipped to the other side, and it’s a little more dramatic move than we thought it would be.”
But New England backers are unfazed by the bigger spread.
“Sharps brought that number down, betting Broncos +5.5. But right now, it’s one-way traffic toward the Patriots,” Feazel said. “People aren’t running to bet the Broncos, while the Pats have been getting action week in and week out.
“I anticipate some sharper action late on the Broncos, and this line probably closing closer to 4 or maybe even 3.5. We’ll want a Patriots win and a Broncos cover.”
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is already involved with the Rams-Seahawks showdown, taking Seattle -2.5.
“I bet this early, thinking it wasn’t going to hold,” McKay said, noting he believed the line would climb to -3 and stick there. “But some sharp guys like the Rams.”
That hasn’t swayed McKay’s opinion.
“Seattle’s had more rest, one less game and a better injury report. L.A. just had to play an overtime game vs. the Bears,” McKay said.
Built for the Futures
Feazel said Caesars Sports has no futures liability to any of the remaining teams, in NFL conference championship odds or Super Bowl odds.
So what Feazel and other oddsmakers are rooting for at this point is a popular Super Bowl matchup, to attract the most bettors, from sharps to the public masses, and those who might only bet once a year.
“I don’t think we want the Broncos in there,” he said. “Rams vs. Patriots, Matthew Stafford vs. Drake Maye would be tremendous. The more storylines you can add, the more action you’re gonna see.
“We’d much rather see the Patriots vs. either the Rams or the Seahawks.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There are already plenty of sizable potential payouts on Super Bowl bets. We’ll delve more into those once the matchup is actually set, to see which wagers survive this weekend.
Staying in the present, there are also some noteworthy wagers on AFC and NFC championship odds. That includes a possible seven-figure winner, if the Seahawks can hold court at home Sunday night.
Back in August, a BetMGM customer put $50,000 on Seattle +2800 to win the NFC. If that happens, the bettor wins a massive $1.4 million (total payout $1.45 million).
Also looming at BetMGM: In December, a customer put $100,000 on Broncos +350 to win the AFC. Should Denver overcome Nix’s absence on Sunday, the bettor will bank $350,000 (total payout $450,000).
BetMGM also took bets of $75,000 and $50,000 on Broncos +350 to win the AFC. Those would profit $262,500 (total payout $337,500) and $175,000 (total payout $225,000), respectively.
