Sam Darnold, Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford and Jarrett Stidham are the four remaining quarterbacks who are aiming to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next month in Santa Clara.
Just like we all predicted back in August.
The Seahawks (+150) are Super Bowl favorites at every sportsbook, followed by the Rams (+220), Patriots (+250) and longshot Broncos (+1200), with starting quarterback Bo Nix sidelined after suffering a broken ankle last week.
Seattle and L.A. Part III will represent the NFC.
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“I’m thinking rock fight,” Fantasy Life betting and fantasy expert Ian Hartitz told me. “When you face a team for the third time, those guys know everything there is to know.
“I knew the [Seattle] D was great, but not like this. The only defenses this millennium to lead the NFL in fewest yards per carry and net yards per pass attempt are the 2025 Seahawks, 2015 Broncos, 2010 and 2018 Steelers and 2000 Ravens. Their ability to wreak havoc and get all this pressure without needing to blitz makes it so tough.
“I lean toward Seattle in a low-scoring affair.”
Last week, I suggested a two-team, six-point teaser with Buffalo +7.5 and Chicago +10. The Rams are in that mathematical sweet spot — you can knock them up from +2.5 to +8.5 through 3 and 7. The first two meetings came down to the wire and I expect nothing to change Sunday.
Rams +8.5 to Broncos +11.5 is very enticing.
Speaking of the Broncos, they’re obviously turning the car keys over to Stidham, a 29-year-old career backup who played his college ball at Baylor and Auburn. The betting market is saying the drop-off from Nix to Stidham is around six points.
Seems high, no?
A Las Vegas bookmaker would say the drop-offs from Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson to their backups is seven points. So, now Nix to Stidham is similar?
Eh.
The public will undoubtedly pound the Pats on straight bets and in parlays, mostly because New England has made bettors money all year. Mike Vrabel’s bunch is the best cover team (14-5 ATS) in the league, and it is an incredible 7-1 ATS on the highway.
“Drake Maye doesn’t have any weaknesses,” Hartitz admitted. “It’s driving me crazy. If you need an underdog to pull an upset, though, you want it to be at home with a dominant defense that can get after the passer and an offensive line that can instill their will.
“I’ve got the Patriots winning, but the Broncos can keep it close.”
How about a favorite prop?
“Darnold Under 235.5 passing yards,” Hartitz said. “Seattle could build a lead and coast through it. Darnold hasn’t hit 200 in the last three games. If we get a shootout, it’ll be bad, but with Kenneth Walker and the run game grooving, Seattle might lean in there.”
One last market to discuss is Super Bowl MVP.
Sure, you run the risk of betting on a player who gets eliminated this Sunday, but you’re also rolling the dice for a chance to grab a guy before his odds are slashed in half.
Rams star receiver Puka Nacua at 17/1 speaks to me.
And please shop around if you’re planning to make a Super Bowl MVP wager. All these sportsbooks have different prices based on their respective liabilities. For example, Patriots running back TreVeyon Henderson is 55/1 at DraftKings, 65/1 at Caesars, 70/1 at BetMGM and 80/1 at FanDuel. Why bet 55 when you can make the same bet at 80?
Every cent counts in this racket.
