After a season filled with parity, surprising turnarounds and historic upsets, it’s only fitting that this weekend’s Final Four in Houston features three programs making their first appearance.
It marks the first time in 53 years — yes, since 1970 — that 75% of the Final Four teams are making their debut in the national semifinals. According to NCAA Research, the total of the seeds — 4 + 5 + 5 + 9 = 23 — is the second-highest total in the history of the tournament to only 2011 … a season that saw Connecticut defeat Butler for its third national championship.
Interestingly, that Final Four was also in Houston! Furthermore, the last three times the Huskies have won it all (2004, 2011, 2014), the Final Four has been held in Texas. Noticing some trends here?
Here’s a guide of what to watch for this weekend, with a role for each team, stars to watch and some additional nuggets.
FINAL FOUR
Location: Houston, NRG Stadium (Home of the Houston Texans)
Saturday’s Schedule
No. 5 San Diego State (South) vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic (East): 6:09 p.m. ET (CBS)
No. 4 UConn (West) vs. No. 5 Miami (Midwest): 8:49 p.m. ET (CBS)
Monday’s Schedule
National Championship Game: 9 p.m. ET (CBS)
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TEAM-BY-TEAM BREAKDOWNS
The Front-Runner: Connecticut (29-8)
The Huskies are absolutely the favorite entering Houston, having dominated their way to the program’s sixth Final Four by winning their four games by a combined 90 points. In Dan Hurley’s fifth season, UConn went from being unranked in the preseason to starting 14-0 and reaching the No. 2 ranking in the country. After dropping six of eight games in January in the Big East, talk that the Huskies were back on the national map had cooled off. But Hurley and his staff made adjustments to their offense and dug in with the man-to-man defense to produce a 13-2 record since Jan. 31.
(Speaking of the conference, it’s had a big March leading all leagues in NCAA Tournament winning percentage.)
What’s been the key to this tournament run? The second half performances. In the final 20 minutes of their four NCAA Tournament games, the Huskies have outscored their opponents by a combined 174-107. UConn is getting elite production from Adama Sanogo on the interior. The junior has averaged 20.0 PPG and 9.5 RPG in the tournament and has been a real handful. On the perimeter, among a slew of options, Jordan Hawkins has become the star that many around Storrs thought he could be. The top-20 NBA Draft prospect has combined to score 69 points in four NCAA Tournament games, 44 of which have come in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. With those two mainstays, UConn has found the scoring. But the question for this team entering the season was point guard play. They’ve answered that with steady play from East Carolina transfer Tristen Newton, but the added dimension to help alleviate the pressure off him has been provided by junior leader Andre Jackson Jr.
Jackson, a dynamic 6-foot-7 wing who has been known for his defense, rebounding and leadership, is the glue of this Huskies team. Over the last two games, he’s combined for 17 assists. With the likes of freshmen Alex Karaban and Donovan Clingan, transfers Nahiem Alleyne and Joey Calcaterra, and a deep bench, Jackson’s ability to make others around him better has been a game-changer for this team. Over the last two games, UConn has totaled 43 assists. The ball is hopping and Jackson is a huge reason for it.
The Huskies are No. 1 in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, boasting the nation’s No. 3 offense and the No. 11 defense. They are playing the most complete ball of any of these four teams, and have really controlled everybody standing in their way. There’s no reason why Connecticut can’t win its fifth national championship since 1999 this week. Nobody else in college basketball has more than three (North Carolina) in that span.
The NIL Game-Changers and Offensive Juggernaut: Miami (29-7)
Miami was all over the headlines last spring following the program’s first-ever run to the Elite Eight, but the story wasn’t about the success on the court. It was about money. When it was reported that Nijel Pack had agreed to transfer from Kansas State to the Hurricanes, Miami booster and LifeWallet CEO John Ruiz placed out the following tweet:
It sent shockwaves through college basketball — name, image and likeness was going to totally alter the sport. But while the Hurricanes were bringing in a star in Pack, one of the stars from their historic Elite Eight season, Isaiah Wong, was asking for more money. Wong was taken care of, but even then, the talk surrounding Miami was whether 73-year-old Jim Larrañaga would be able to throw NIL in the back seat and worry about winning basketball games.
What has ensued in Coral Gables has been nothing short of incredible, with Miami making a second straight Elite Eight appearance, then coming back from 13 down to 2-seed Texas to book the Canes’ first trip to the Final Four.
What makes this team dangerous? The nation’s fifth-most efficient offense, with multiple bucket-getters capable of dropping 25-30 points on any given night. Don’t believe me? In their last three NCAA Tournament games — Indiana (Wong, 27), Houston (Pack, 26) and Texas (Jordan Miller, 27) — the Hurricanes have had a different player score at least 26 points.
Larrañaga lets his team play a loose style that sits at 90th in adjusted tempo, with scoring options allowing for Miami to ride any hot hand on a given night. And we’re not talking about a team that just wins off the 3-point shot. In fact, the Hurricanes rallied past Texas on Sunday and scored 88 points while going just 2-for-8 from beyond the arc. But Miller shot 7-for-7 and sophomore Wooga Poplar went 6-for-7 from the floor, getting where they needed to in the lane to find their scoring rhythm.
Miami’s invaluable weapon on the interior, who must be ready to counter Sanogo on Saturday night, is Arkansas State transfer Norchad Omier, who’s averaged 13-and-10 on the season while shooting 58% and grabbing a combined 53 rebounds in NCAA Tournament games.
So much for NIL killing culture in the locker room …
As for this Canes team in general, for those stating that they are a major surprise or a program out of nowhere, Miami has gone 14-2 against out-of-conference opponents, won the ACC regular-season championship and boasts a 29-7 record. Miami belongs, and Larrañaga’s team can score on anybody in America.
The key: Can the Canes allow that electrifying offense to dictate the games and for that high-level scoring to become the team’s best defense, forcing UConn to rush its shot attempts? Miami is dangerous, and it’s nothing short of incredible what Larrañaga has done in elevating the Hurricanes while many other older coaches hang it up on the sidelines.
The Grown Men: San Diego State (31-6)
Relentless. Nasty. Physical. That’s San Diego State Aztecs basketball. If you’re looking for aesthetically pleasing or pretty, check out UConn and Miami. But guess what? This is beautiful basketball in Brian Dutcher’s eyes and it should be. SDSU does not care about your feelings. This team has defended at such a high level, opponents have actually dreaded attempting to run offense against the Aztecs.
A year removed from a first-round collapse in the NCAA Tournament, San Diego State made splashes in the offseason to flip that script. They returned four of their five starters, then Dutcher went and landed Seattle transfer Darrion Trammell to help an inconsistent offense, plus Jaedon LeDee from TCU.
Everything Dutcher and his staff have hoped for has come to fruition, and this program, which has been one of college basketball’s most consistent over the last six seasons — holding a record of 107-22 in that stretch — is now getting its deserved moment under the sun.
The formula starts and ends with defense, which is the best left in the field and sits at No. 4 in the country according to KenPom. Just how great is San Diego State on that end of the floor? According to FOX Sports research, the Aztecs have held their first four opponents in the NCAA Tournament 23.2 points lower than their average scoring output. The stops start with aggressive ball pressure that makes it extremely difficult to find open shots. In the NCAA Tournament, the Aztecs have allowed only 16 made 3s on 17% shooting. What’s even wilder than that? SDSU held Alabama and Creighton to just five made 3s in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight on 11% shooting — 11%!
On the offensive end of the floor, they have become more versatile after everything funneled through Matt Bradley last season. Now, the Aztecs go a legit nine-deep.
While Bradley shot 3-for-17 over the last two games, Trammell delivered 21 points in the win over Alabama, then made the game-winning free throw against Creighton, part of a 12-point output. Against Creighton, junior Lamont Butler scored 18 on 8-for-11 from the floor.
This tournament has also seen the 6-foot-9 LeDee come in off the bench and give teams issues with his length, as he did in the 12-point game against Alabama. It’s also seen Micah Parrish, a 6-foot-6 junior guard, score 16 points in 21 minutes to book a Sweet 16 ticket with his highest scoring output since Dec. 12.
It’s not like the Aztecs have had crazy scoring performances, but that’s not how they have won games. They are an old-school, rugged, hard-nosed group that has held three of four NCAA Tournaments to 57 points or fewer. They do that with a senior from Ghana, Nathan Mensah, who protects the rim along with Aguek Arop. Over the last six games, Mensah has combined for 16 rejections, including a combined eight blocks in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds.
Here’s the deal: the Aztecs are grown men. They are never going to get blown out because of the style that they play, and they can wear teams down with how hard it is to score on them over the course of a game. That’s why SDSU can absolutely win a national championship. Don’t let the lack of sexy with this team stray you away from how hard it is to beat them.
The Crunch Time Kids: Florida Atlantic (35-3)
Before you place Cinderella’s slipper on them, bear this in mind: The Owls have played 38 games and won 35 of them. They may be an underdog by name, having entered this NCAA Tournament with just one other appearance in the event (2002) and no wins, but the way FAU has played throughout the Big Dance has shown just how great a team they really are.
What makes Dusty May’s group so good? The Owls have been the masters of closing time, going 11-1 this season in games decided by five points or fewer.
All four victories in the NCAA Tournament have come by single figures, and this run could have ended just as soon as it was getting started. With Memphis up by four inside five minutes left, then clinging to a 65-64 lead with five seconds on the clock, Nick Boyd’s runner in the lane pushed the Owls to the dramatic victory. Fairleigh Dickinson came next, and then Tennessee and Kansas State came calling. One might think playing a team as physical as the Vols and then following it up with Markquis Nowell and the Wildcats would have worn down FAU. Think again.
“This team is not afraid of failure. This team is not afraid of losing. They are not afraid of anything, and it’s like a totally different gear comes out of them when they fall behind.”
Those are the words of May, a former manager for Bob Knight at Indiana in the late 1990s, who is in his fifth year at FAU.
May is right when discussing his group. When FAU was down by seven with less than 12 minutes left against Kansas State on Saturday night at MSG, they didn’t freeze. Being down by six to Tennessee with less than 12 minutes left on Thursday night? The Owls just kept playing. Similarly to San Diego State, the Owls are in the Final Four because of their depth. It’s not necessarily some crazy amount of experience. In fact, the only rotation player set to depart after this year is senior Michael Forrest. Yes, this team will be a true test of the transfer climate in college basketball.
For now, what makes this group special is the offensive balance. Leading scorer Johnell Davis is a tough 6-foot-4, 203-pound bulldog guard who was massively underrecruited out of high school. Alijah Martin, who joins Davis at over 13 points per game, was offered a scholarship by pure chance because one opened up late for May and his staff to give the Mississippi native a chance.
May did some work in the portal, too, landing 7-foot-1 center Vlad Goldin (Texas Tech) along with guards Bryan Greenlee (Minnesota) and Jalen Gaffney (UConn). He’s offered a spot where guys who did not get much of a shot at all at their previous power conference destinations have now found a home.
In total, nine players average at least 15 minutes per game and at least three players have scored in double-figures in each NCAA Tournament game — four did so against Memphis and Kansas State. There is true offensive versatility with this team, and it’s because of the depth of options on the perimeter. Four players have knocked down 54-or-more-triples this season, while six have connected on at least 40. As great as Davis and Martin have been, it speaks volumes about FAU that Brandon Weatherspoon, who is eighth on the stat sheet in the scoring column, hit the dagger triple against Kansas State.
This group is unselfish but tough, as heard by Martin on Saturday night after the Owls won the East Regional championship inside Madison Square Garden — all the more reason why this run has been so special!
Beyond their balance, FAU joins UConn as the only two teams left that rank inside the top 30 of KenPom on both offense (24th) and defense (30th). The Owls are truly well-rounded and have the unflappable nature that it takes to win this time of year. They are a great story, showing that if you have the right mix of players, you can do more than just win a game in the NCAA Tournament in today’s climate. You can get to the biggest stage.
Predictions:
FAU over San Diego State
UConn over Miami
Championship game:
UConn over FAU
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
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