Just over two weeks ago, the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament started with a field of 68 teams, all trying to make a run in what we affectionately call “March Madness.” Now as we approach April 1st, it has come down to the national semifinals, better known to most as the Final Four.
This tournament has been one for the ages and has provided us with one of the most surprising results we’ve seen in its rich history.
Had anyone mentioned the Florida Atlantic Owls, the Miami Hurricanes, the San Diego State Aztecs or even the UConn Huskies as potential Final Four candidates entering the tournament, very few would have taken them seriously.
As we turn our attention to the Final Four, FOX Sports Research wanted to take a deep dive into the best betting trends for the two big games, as well as overview how historic this tournament was from a betting perspective — both against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU).
Let’s jump into the fun and, hopefully, make you a few dollars along the way.
Underdogs barely cover in the Final Four
No matter what time frame you look at, underdogs cover the spread in the Final Four — but just barely. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, they are 38-35-1 ATS (52.1%) and eclipsed the 50% barrier in more recent time frames, as shown below.
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- Since 2017, underdogs are 6-4 ATS (60%) in the Final Four
- Since 2011, underdogs are 12-9-1 ATS (57.1%) in the Final Four
- Since 2006, underdogs are 16-15-1 ATS (51.6%) in the Final Four
- Since 2001, underdogs are 21-20-1 ATS (51.2%) in the Final Four
- Since 1995, underdogs are 28-25-1 ATS (52.8%) in the Final Four
Bet on either of the two Final Four favorites to win it all
Connecticut and San Diego State are both favored in their respective Final Four matchups, and the recent data says that one of them will win the national championship. In 17 of the last 18 Final Fours, one of the two favorites entering the semifinals went on to win the national title.
Coincidentally, the lone team not to be the favorite in their Final Four matchup and still win the title in that span was UConn in 2014. They were 6.5-point underdogs against the Florida Gators and went on to win the whole dance.
Currently, the Huskies are -125 to win it all, while the Aztecs’ title odds sit at +390 at FOX Bet.
History says UConn should win, but Miami is a cover machine
Despite the miraculous run Miami has made, all the historical data points towards UConn winning the game on Saturday. The Huskies are currently 5.5-point favorites at FOX Bet. Favorites of four to six points are 15-11 ATS (57.7%) and 16-10 SU (61.5%) in the Final Four since 1985.
However, not all hope is lost for the Hurricanes. Jim Larrañaga’s squad is a whopping 9-2 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog this season, 20-5 ATS (80%) as one over the last two seasons, and a staggering 33-12 ATS (73.3%) as an underdog in the last three years.
Dan Hurley’s squad will be ready for the competition, as they are 14-1 ATS (93.3%) and 15-0 SU against non-Big East teams this season. But even though the Huskies might win, it could definitely be worth wagering on the Hurricanes to cover the 5.5-point spread.
Coaching experience matters, or does it?
In the San Diego State vs. Florida Atlantic matchup, both Brian Dutcher and Dusty May will be making their coaching debuts in the Final Four. However, in the other matchup, this will be Jim Larrañaga’s second trip to the Final Four, having taken the George Mason Patriots there in 2006. On the other side, this will be Dan Hurley’s first Final Four appearance.
Forty-five head coaches have made their Final Four debut against a coach who has been there before since seeding began. The coach making his debut is surprisingly 24-20-1 ATS (54.5%) and 20-25 SU (44.4%). Overall, however, coaches with more Final Four experience against a coach with less experience in the semifinals are 37-34-1 ATS (51.1%) and 42-30 SU (58.3%) since 1979.
Appreciate how historic this Final Four is
Not so much of a betting perspective here, but this Final Four is so novel and unique that we wanted to inform you of all the historical tidbits which make it so special:
- For the first time in the seeding era (since 1979), three teams will play in the Final Four in their first-ever appearance (Miami, Florida Atlantic, San Diego State)
- For the first time since 1970, three teams will make their Final Four debut in a single year; In 1970, the St. Bonaventure Bonnies, the Jacksonville Dolphins, and the New Mexico State Aggies each made their Final Four debuts
- For the first time in the seeding era, there is no 1, 2 or 3-seed in the Final Four
- This will be just the fourth Final Four with no 1-seed; the previous three Final Fours without a 1-seed were won by 2011 UConn, 2006 Florida, and the 1980 Louisville Cardinals
- A 5-seed (San Diego State) and 9-seed (Florida Atlantic) have never met in the Final Four, and this will be the first time ever since seeding began in 1979
- At 23, this is the second-highest seed total of any Final Four dating back to when seeding began in 1979; In 2011, (3) UConn, the (4) Kentucky Wildcats, the (8) Butler Bulldogs and the (11) VCU Rams had a seed total of 26
- This will be the second Final Four to feature two 5-seeds since seeding began in 1979; The first came in 2010, with the Michigan State Spartans and Butler both making the Final Four as 5-seeds
- San Diego State is the first Mountain West team to ever appear in the Final Four (UNLV Rebels were in the Big West/independent in their appearances)
- Florida Atlantic is the first Conference USA school to make the Final Four since the Memphis Tigers in 2008 (now in the AAC) and just the fourth C-USA member ever to do so
- This is the first time ever that two teams from Florida have made the Final Four in the same tournament
So what are you waiting for? Head over to FOX Bet and place some wagers on the Final Four!
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