With the NFL Draft just a few weeks away, scouting departments across the league are spending countless hours zeroing in on their favorite prospects in the Class of 2026.
The purpose of this article is quite the opposite — we aimed to look back and provide some perspective on Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He’s the consensus top quarterback of this class, but how does he stack up against recent top-rated prospects at the position?
Quarterbacks have been selected No. 1 overall in four of the past five drafts, while Caleb Williams (2024), Bryce Young (2023) and Trevor Lawrence (2021) were also ranked as the top prospects of their respective classes on my annual Big Board.
I ranked C.J. Stroud No. 2 overall in my 2023 Big Board. Maye checked in at No. 6 on my 2024 Big Board, albeit amid an elite class with only fellow top-10 picks Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Brock Bowers and Rome Odunze ranked ahead of him.
This year’s class isn’t as rich at the top, and Mendoza checks in at No. 4 overall on my latest 2026 Big Board.
Fernando Mendoza is the Raiders’ presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. But how many recent top QB prospects would be taken ahead of him if available today? (L.E. Baskow/Las Vegas Review-Journal/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
But back to that 2024 board, for a moment. I had Daniels ranked two spots lower than Maye, with J.J. McCarthy ranked 23rd, Michael Penix Jr. 25th and Bo Nix 40th overall.
Nix and Jaxson Dart (ranked 46th on my 2025 Big Board) were the only first-round quarterbacks since 2021 who I did not rank among the top 32 prospects in their respective draft classes. Clearly, I did not give either enough credit for how well their mobility and grit would transfer into immediate success in the NFL.
Each has outplayed my expectations. But again, the purpose of this article is to rank Mendoza with regard to where I had the top quarterback prospects entering their respective drafts, and I can’t alter their pre-draft rankings now.
As such, I’ll fess up and share the fact that, like many, I was intrigued by the upside offered by Anthony Richardson and Will Levis in 2023. I ranked them as the ninth and 13th best prospects, respectively, that year.
And while Trevor Lawrence was the top prospect on my 2021 Big Board, Justin Fields was the second quarterback and ranked ninth overall, with Zach Wilson (10th), Trey Lance (13th) and Mac Jones (15th) also earning first-round grades.
Ty Simpson spent four years at Alabama but was the starter for just one. Has he shown enough to warrant a first-round selection? (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Playing quarterback at a high level in the NFL is just as much about poise and leadership as arm talent, and rarely are QBs equipped to handle the pressure after only starting a year or two at the college level.
That fact led to several undeniably gifted quarterbacks with obvious first-round traits falling on my Big Boards. Not every year, after all, does a single quarterback even make my top 10. There wasn’t one in either of my 2022 or 2025 final rankings.
I was stunned when Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round of last year’s draft, as he was my top-rated quarterback, ahead of Cam Ward. I had Sanders ranked as the No. 12 player in the 2025 class (with Ward No. 14), even when it was clear that Ward was going to be the Tennessee Titans’ choice with the first pick.
The rankings of others — including by NFL teams — don’t impact the way I grade prospects. And that is nothing new.
Back in 2022, I had Malik Willis ranked No. 19 overall and Kenny Pickett — the only quarterback drafted in the first round that year — listed 32nd.
Malik Willis fell to the third round of the 2022 draft. But he was Rob Rang’s top QB prospect in that class. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
I feel confident that I’m evaluating Mendoza fairly without recency bias toward him or any of the quarterbacks who have since played in the NFL.
Despite what you might have heard or read elsewhere, Mendoza’s rise to No. 1 overall this year was more steady than surprising.
I listed him as a first-round candidate before the year began, and he personified his Hoosiers all year long, silencing critics throughout a magical season that culminated with the national championship and Heisman Trophy.
Mendoza is far and away the top quarterback of this class and warrants being ranked among the top overall prospects of this draft. He offers an exciting blend of polish and untapped potential, with a skill set that projects well for the offense Klint Kubiak figures to employ with the Las Vegas Raiders. Along with physical traits like his prototypical frame, quick release and precision passing — including while on the move — Mendoza enters the NFL with above-average pre-snap awareness and proven poise.
He projects as a Day 1 starter with the physical tools and intangibles to develop into a true franchise-changer. So, how does he rank among the best QB prospects from the previous five drafts? Here’s my list.
My pre-draft ranking of the top QB prospects since 2021 …
22. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss (No. 25 overall pick in 2025 by New York Giants)
21. Bo Nix, Oregon (No. 12 overall pick in 2024 by Denver Broncos)
20. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (No. 20 overall pick in 2022 by Pittsburgh Steelers)
19. Ty Simpson, Alabama (2026 draft prospect)
18. Will Levis, Kentucky (No. 33 overall pick in 2023 by Tennessee Titans)
17. Michael Penix Jr., Washington (No. 8 overall pick in 2024 by Atlanta Falcons)
16. Mac Jones, Alabama (No. 15 overall pick in 2021 by New England Patriots)
15. Malik Willis, Liberty (No. 86 overall pick in 2022 by Tennessee Titans)
14. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (No. 10 overall pick in 2024 by Minnesota Vikings)
13. Trey Lance, North Dakota State (No. 3 overall pick in 2021 by San Francisco 49ers)
12. Cam Ward, Miami (No. 1 overall pick in 2025 by Tennessee Titans)
11. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (No. 144 overall pick in 2025 by Cleveland Browns)
Shedeur Sanders’ fifth-round selection was drastically later than projected heading into the 2025 draft. Will he prove the whole league wrong? (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
10. Anthony Richardson Sr., Florida (No. 4 overall pick in 2023 by Indianapolis Colts)
9. Zach Wilson, BYU (No. 2 overall pick in 2021 by New York Jets)
8. Justin Fields, Ohio State (No. 11 overall pick in 2021 by Chicago Bears)
7. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (2026 draft prospect)
6. Jayden Daniels, LSU (No. 2 overall pick in 2024 by Washington Commanders)
5. Drake Maye, North Carolina (No. 3 overall pick in 2024 by New England Patriots)
4. C.J. Stroud, Ohio State (No. 2 overall pick in 2023 by Houston Texans)
3. Bryce Young, Alabama (No. 1 overall pick in 2023 by Carolina Panthers)
2. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (No. 1 overall pick in 2021 by Jacksonville Jaguars)
1. Caleb Williams, USC (No. 1 overall pick in 2025 by Chicago Bears)
How I’d rank them as of today …
22. Trey Lance, Chargers
21. Zach Wilson, free agent
20. Kenny Pickett, Panthers
19. Will Levis, Titans
18. Anthony Richardson Sr., Colts
17. Justin Fields, Chiefs
16. Ty Simpson
15. Shedeur Sanders, Browns
14. Mac Jones, 49ers
13. J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
12. Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
11. Jaxson Dart, Giants
Jaxson Dart exceeded expectations as a rookie last year, even as a first-round pick. It was a deciding factor in John Harbaugh taking the Giants’ head coaching job in January. (Photo by Ishika Samant/Getty Images)
10. Malik Willis, Dolphins
9. Cam Ward, Titans
8. Fernando Mendoza
7. Bryce Young, Panthers
6. C.J. Stroud, Texans
5. Jayden Daniels, Commanders
4. Bo Nix, Broncos
3. Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars
2. Caleb Williams, Bears
1. Drake Maye, Patriots
