Sixteen teams left. Win or go home. Four wins separate contenders from history.
Welcome to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament, which has already delivered its usual chaos. The ninth-seeded Iowa Hawkeyes sent shockwaves through the bracket by knocking off the defending national champion Florida Gators on Sunday, while Texas arrives as an unlikely Cinderella in a Sweet 16 made up entirely of power-conference teams for the second straight year.
The matchups only get better from here, from Dan Hurley’s UConn squad vs. Tom Izzo’s Michigan State team to a Big Ten clash between Iowa and Nebraska with a long-awaited Elite Eight berth on the line.
FOX Sports’ Casey Jacobsen is here to rank the Sweet 16 matchups, from 8-to-1.
8. Purdue (29-8) vs. Texas (21-14)
Matas Vokietaitis of the Texas Longhorns posts up against Ven-Allen Lubin of NC State. (Photo by Ben Solomon/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
When: Thursday, March 26 at 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: SAP Center at San Jose (West Region)
How to Watch: CBS
Betting Line: Purdue -6.5, OVER/UNDER 148.5
I’m looking forward to this game, but it doesn’t have quite the same draw as the others. Texas has reached this spot after starting in Dayton as a “First Four” entry. Sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis scored 23 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in a win over BYU, then followed that up with 17 points and nine rebounds in an upset victory over Gonzaga. Can the 7-foot big man from Lithuania match that production against Purdue’s Trey Kaufman-Renn, who is playing his best basketball of the season right now? Braden Smith struggled in Purdue’s Round of 32 win over Miami (3-12 FG, eight turnovers), so I expect a bounce-back performance from him. I’ll take Purdue moving on here.
7. Iowa State (29-7) vs. Tennessee (24-11)
Joshua Jefferson #5 of the Iowa State Cyclones attempts a shot as he is guarded by Jalen Celestine #32 of Cincinnati. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
When: Friday, March 27 at 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: United Center, Chicago (Midwest Region)
How to Watch: TBD/tru TV
Betting Line: Iowa State -4.5, OVER/UNDER 138.5
The Cyclones were impressive in Round 2, blowing out Kentucky without their best player in senior forward Joshua Jefferson (ankle). Senior guard Tamin Lipsey had his best game of the season with 26 points, 10 assists, and five steals to fill the void. Jefferson is expected to give his ankle a try against Tennessee, which has the nation’s 14th ranked defense in the land. The Vols have a fun offensive combo of senior guard Ja’Kobi Gillespie and freshman forward Nate Ament. I think this game will be low scoring and close. If the Cyclones shoot average or better from 3, they should win.
6. Michigan (33-3) vs. Alabama (25-9)
Yaxel Lendeborg #23 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates against the Purdue Boilermakers. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
When: Friday, March 27 at 7:35 p.m. ET
Where: United Center, Chicago (Midwest Region)
How to Watch: TBD/tru TV
Betting Line: Michigan -9.5, OVER/UNDER 175.5
Michigan remains my pick to win the national title and the Wolverines’ play against a good St. Louis team only confirmed those feelings. The Wolverines are not a perfect team, but they do not have a glaring weakness. When senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg is hitting 3s and junior center Aday Mara is protecting the rim, opposing teams have to resort to hitting perimeter shots. Well, do you know who the most dangerous 3-point shooting team in the country is? That’s right … The Alabama Crimson Tide. They made 19 3-pointers in a Round of 32 win over Texas Tech, led by senior guard Latrell Wrightsell, who went 6-for-9 from beyond the arc. If Alabama makes 17-plus triples in this game, they’ll probably win. Anything short of that and I’ll take Michigan.
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5. UConn (31-5) vs. Michigan State (27-7)
Jeremy Fears Jr. #1 of the Michigan State Spartans looks on during the first half against Michigan. (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
When: Friday, March 27 at 9:35 p.m. ET
Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC (East Region)
How to Watch: CBS
Betting Line: UConn -1.5, OVER/UNDER 136.5
The Huskies haven’t been very impressive over the last month of the season, but do you want to doubt Dan Hurley’s team in the NCAA Tournament? Me neither. Senior forward Alex Karaban saved the best scoring game of his career (28 points) for the team’s Round of 32 win over UCLA, while senior big man Tarris Reed combined for 40 rebounds in two tournament games. On the other hand, the Spartans have the best passing point guard in the nation in redshirt sophomore Jeremy Fears Jr., who has dished out 27 assists in two tournament games. If junior forward Coen Carr can continue to score in this tournament, Michigan State can win this game. If it’s just the “Jeremy Fears Jr. Show,” it won’t be enough. Give me the Spartans in this one.
4. Arizona (34-2) vs. Arkansas (28-8)
Darius Acuff Jr. of the Arkansas Razorbacks drives to the basket against Latrell Wrightsell Jr. of Alabama. (Photo by Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images)
When: Thursday, March 26 at 9:45 p.m. ET
Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC (East Region)
How to Watch: CBS
Betting Line: Arizona -7.5, OVER/UNDER 166.5
Arizona has been the most consistent team in the country this season, while Arkansas has been up and down. But, make no mistake about it, the Razorbacks are extremely dangerous. Most of that danger is supplied by their lead guard, freshman Darius Acuff Jr. He has scored 60 points in the first two rounds of the tournament, but Arizona has two perimeter defenders that might be up to the task in senior Jaden Bradley and freshman Ivan Kharchenkov. This is the key to the game: Can Acuff be special? If he can’t, it’s hard for me to imagine any other scenario resulting in an Arkansas win. Arizona is the smart choice here.
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3. Nebraska (28-6) vs. Iowa (23-12)
Pryce Sandfort of the Nebraska Cornhuskers attempts a shot over Aday Mara of the Michigan Wolverines. (Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images)
When: Thursday, March 26 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Toyota Center, Houston (South Region)
How to Watch: TBS/truTV
Betting Line: Nebraska -1.5, OVER/UNDER 132.5
This is the most surprising of the Sweet 16 matchups, and that’s what makes it so special. Both fan bases are just happy to be here. Nebraska is the better defensive team (sixth nationally), but Iowa is better on offense (25th nationally). The X-Factor? The Hawkeyes have senior guard Bennett Stirtz. He is the best player in this game and will have the ball in his hands for the majority of Iowa’s possessions. Stirtz went 0-for-9 from 3-point range, and the Hawkeyes still beat No. 1 Florida on Sunday night. Nebraska’s defense will try to keep Stirtz out of the middle and if the Cornhuskers get hot from 3 (especially Pryce Sandfort), I think Nebraska prevails.
2. Duke (34-2) vs. St. John’s (30-6)
Dylan Darling #0 and Zuby Ejiofor #24 of St. John’s celebrate after Darling scored the game-winning basket against Kansas. (Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
When: Friday, March 27 at 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC (East Region)
How to Watch: CBS
Betting Line: Duke -6.5, OVER/UNDER 141.5
St. John’s head coach Rick Pitino is 73 years old, while Duke head coach Jon Scheyer is just 38. Let that sink in for a second. Both of these teams are well coached and St. John’s is coming in with a swagger after the team’s buzzer-beating win over Kansas. But Duke’s defense is a lot better than anything the Johnnies have seen all season, especially with center Patrick Ngongba back in the fold. The matchup to watch in this game is at the power forward spot: St. John’s Zuby Ejiofor vs Duke’s Cameron Boozer. They are both asked to do a bit of everything for their respective teams. Fun fact of the day: Duke has won five national titles. In every single one of those seasons, the Blue Devils beat St. John’s either in the regular season or the NCAA Tournament. I’ll take Duke to win here, but I don’t think the Blue Devils will cut down the nets next week.
1. Houston (30-6) vs. Illinois (26-8)
Keaton Wagler #23 of the Illinois Fighting Illini dribbles during the second half against Nebraska. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)
When: Thursday, March 26 at 10:05 p.m. ET
Where: Toyota Center, Houston (South Region)
How to Watch: TBS/truTV
Betting Line: Houston -3.5, OVER/UNDER 140.5
This is a home game for Houston after the Cougars looked dominant in their two blowout victories in Oklahoma City. The Cougars are appearing in their seventh straight Sweet 16 and looking for their eighth Final Four appearance, the most of any team without a national title. Standing in their way is the tallest team in the nation. Illinois has the second-most efficient offense in the country going against Houston’s fourth-ranked defense. Both teams have plenty of experience, but the two best players will be freshman guards: Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler. Flemings is a driver and mid-range pull-up shooter, while Wagler is shooting 40% from 3 and loves to finish around the rim. Houston is my pick.
