With the 2026 NFL Draft now in the rearview mirror, the look ahead to the regular season becomes clearer, with rosters now mostly established.
Last week, the Las Vegas Raiders drafted Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza first overall, as expected — but the remainder of the first round presented a few curveballs.
The Tennessee Titans drafting Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate fourth overall was not predicted in any major mock draft, and made for a stunning selection. Then, some were surprised when the Los Angeles Rams decided to draft Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, a position where they have the league’s reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford.
But, a major story that hung over the NFL this weekend was Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel not attending the third day of the draft to attend counseling for personal issues. While Vrabel seems on track to coach the Patriots when the season begins, I believe this tumultuous offseason is an ominous sign for the team in 2026.
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The Patriots, who have an Over/Under of 9.5 regular season wins, were already going to be up against some obstacles even before the news of Vrabel broke. “The Super Bowl hangover” refers to the team that loses the Super Bowl and often underperforms the following season.
The physical toll of playing an extra month of football, or not recovering from the disappointment of losing the Super Bowl, has proven tough to bounce back from. None of the last three Super Bowl losers (Chiefs, 49ers, and Eagles) have won a playoff game the following year, with two of those teams missing the playoffs altogether.
The Patriots also notably had one of the easier schedules in league history last season, as their opponents had a combined winning percentage of .366, the lowest mark in the NFL since 1999. That will not only change this year, but it will do so in dramatic fashion, as the Patriots will now battle a first-place schedule.
N.E. will have to play the other division winners in the AFC (Steelers, Jaguars, and Broncos), as well as the Seahawks, Chiefs, Bears, Lions, along with two games against the Bills.
When you consider the swing of going from a historically easy schedule to now a very difficult one, the Super Bowl hangover concern, and the offseason issues for Vrabel, it all adds up to a step back for the AFC champions. The Patriots are +165 to miss the playoffs, which I think is a good bet as well, but I’ll place my bet that the team does not win 10 games against that challenging schedule.
PICK: New England Patriots Under 9.5 regular-season wins
