Team USA is well behind the favorites on the World Cup futures oddsboard and trails a dozen teams in all.
But with the U.S. competing on home soil, there’s some patriotic play coming from the public betting masses.
“In terms of the response that we’ve seen so far, the USA is our biggest liability,” Caesars Sports head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike.
That liability will likely grow heading into the tournament, which opens Thursday, June 11.
Bickerdike helps break down 2026 World Cup championship odds, with the English bookmaker adding plenty of informed opinions, as well.
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Big Price, Big Liability
The U.S. men’s national team is getting decent action in World Cup futures, though not boatloads of tickets or money. Several teams are ahead of the U.S. in both categories.
But with odds of +5000 — meaning a $100 wager would profit $5,000 — it doesn’t take nearly as many bets and dollars for liability to start stacking up.
“The U.S. isn’t our most-wagered selection. That would be France and Spain,” Bickerdike said, alluding to the two favorites in World Cup odds, at +450. “But with the USA being a sizable price, that’s why they’re our biggest liability.”
That said, Caesars and other U.S. sportsbooks in the same boat aren’t particularly concerned. There’s a reason that Team USA is 50/1: It is not expected to win nor even come close to doing so.
However, a decent run in the knockout round is certainly within reach.
“I’m optimistic that the USA has an excellent chance of getting to the Round of 16,” Bickerdike said.
That would mean advancing from Group D — the Americans are +140 favorites to win the group — and winning a Round of 32 knockout match.
“The U.S. has a really good manager in Mauricio Pochettino. Christian Pulisic is the main man and a high-quality player,” Bickerdike said. “I think 16 is a sizable possibility.”
Take Us To Your Leaders
As noted above, France and Spain are the +450 co-favorites in Caesars’ World Cup futures odds. That’s no surprise to knowledgeable bettors and fans, and, of course, oddsmakers.
“France and Spain are our most-wagered-on teams, and understandably so,” Bickerdike said. “Spain won the Euro 2024 and is finding its form coming into the tournament. They’re a really sound squad.
“And it’s similar with France. They made the last two World Cup finals, winning in 2018. France has great depth and has Kylian Mbappé.”
In the 2022 World Cup final, France overcame a 2-0 deficit thanks to Mbappé, who scored two goals in speedy succession, in the 80th and 81st minutes. The match went to extra time tied at two, and both teams scored in those 30 minutes — with Mbappé completing a hat trick — but Argentina won the penalty-kick shootout 4-2.
This year, Mbappé is the +600 favorite in odds to win the Golden Boot, given to the tournament’s top goalscorer.
“The only downside for France is that they’ve drawn Norway,” Bickerdike said, alluding to a potential challenger in Group I, which also includes Senegal and Iraq. “But given that two teams make it through from each group, France is still primed to advance.”
Bickerdike said the championship odds tell the story for France and Spain.
“I struggle to split them — lots of good players and lots of depth,” he said. “Depth is really key in the World Cup, especially in the heat.”
England Angle
England hasn’t won the World Cup since 1966, when it hosted the tournament. The Three Lions bowed out in the semifinals in 1990 and 2018. In 2022, England lost to France 2-1 in the quarterfinals.
Despite the title drought, the English side is always popular in World Cup futures, and this year is no exception. Caesars has England as the +725 third choice.
“England is our fourth-most-wagered team in terms of tickets and is sixth in money. But it would be a good result for us,” Bickerdike said. “Money on England is significantly less than France and Spain.”
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“It’s mixed chances. Too hard to tell at the moment. Manager Thomas Tuchel needs to do something a little different in order to beat France and Spain,” Bickerdike said, noting England’s roster composition might help – or not.
“England could bomb out very early in the knockout stages or have a really good run.”
Messi and Ronaldo
Defending champion Argentina is the +900 co-fourth choice to lift the trophy, joined by Portugal. Which is interesting, since it ties at the hip two generational talents in Argentina’s Lionel Messi and Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo.
It could be the last World Cup for both players, and bettors are intrigued by both squads.
“There’s a lot of money on Argentina and Portugal, just because of the Messi and Ronaldo aspect,” Bickerdike said. “Personally, I like Argentina. Their balance is good, with a really nice mix of youth and experience, and that squad is really talented.
“Argentina would be my pick for the tournament, at the current prices.”
Dark Horses
Bickerdike pointed to a trio of teams that he likes to potentially win their respective groups: Mexico in Group A, and Egypt and Iran, both in Group G.
Mexico plays in the first match of the World Cup, hosting South Africa at 3 p.m. ET Thursday in Mexico City. Mexico is -110 to win the group, followed by Czech Republic at +300, South Korea at +325 and South Africa at +800.
“In terms of other teams to have decent runs, I quite like Mexico, particularly to win that group,” Bickerdike said. “Playing in Mexico City at altitude is a benefit. And in seven of the last eight World Cups, Mexico has made it to the Round of 16.”
In Group G, Belgium is the -250 favorite to win. But Bickerdike senses the possibility of an upset.
“I think Belgium can be opposed in this market. It is an aging team. I think Egypt or Iran could win that group,” Bickerdike said. “Egypt, with Mo Salah, can cause an upset here and get a favorable draw in the knockout stages.”
Then there’s one real outlier curiously drawing action to lift the trophy: Haiti, which, along with Curacao, is the longest shot in the 48-team field, at a huge +250000 (2500/1).
“One of our biggest liabilities of the tournament is Haiti. They’re bizarrely popular with some of our customers,” Bickerdike said.
