If the 2026 FIFA World Cup were played not once but 100,000 times, who would lift the trophy most often?
That’s the question Sportradar put to an AI simulation engine, which ran the entire 48-team tournament across one hundred thousand universes. Sportradar is a sports technology company that provides real-time sports data and stats to media companies, betting services and professional leagues.
The results of the simulation reveal the favorites, the dark horses worth backing to advance, and how the host nations performed.
Let’s take a look:
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The 12 Group Winners
There were no surprises when it came to which teams won each of the 12 groups in the sims, as all the betting favorites had the highest probability of winning their respective groups and did so at least 40% of the time.
The 12 Group Runners-Up
There were some surprises, however, when it came to group runners-up.
For instance, in Group A, South Korea has qualified for the last 11 World Cups but finished behind Czechia—a team that hasn’t participated in a World Cup in 20 years.
Similarly, in Group B, Canada, which is 0-0-6 (W-D-L) all-time at the World Cup, finished ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the team that knocked Italy out of this year’s tournament.
Last Eight Teams
Below are the eight third-place teams that had the highest probability of making the knockout stage based on the sims.
Three African teams are expected to be in this group, along with two European teams, two Asian teams, and one South American squad.
Analyzing the Final
France vs. Spain was the most common matchup in the final, occurring nearly 7,000 times (7%); both teams won the tournament 16% of the time.
Brazil vs. Spain was the second-most common matchup in the final, occurring nearly 5,000 times (5%); Brazil won the tournament 10% of the time.
England vs. Portugal was the “least common” final matchup, occurring 2,494 times (2.5%).
The usual suspects won the tournament the most, as Spain, France, England, Brazil, and Argentina won the title a combined 63,000 times out of the 100,000 sims.
Portugal won the tournament in 8,000 simulations, which was the highest total of any team without a title.
There were also only 5,443 simulations (5.4%) in which a team outside of Europe or South America won the tournament; Japan had the most instances of winning under these parameters at 1,415 (1.4%).
Host Nations
The U.S. reached the semifinal in 9,794 simulations (9.8%) and the final in 3,913 (3.9%); there were also 1,297 simulations (1.3%) in which the U.S. won the title.
Mexico reached the semifinal in 7,272 simulations (7.3%) and the final in 2,555 (2.6%); there were also 936 simulations (0.9%) in which Mexico won the title.
Canada reached the semifinal in 4,174 simulations (4.2%) and the final in 1,158 (1.2%); there were no simulations in which Canada won the title.
Golden Boot Results
Kylian Mbappé scored the most goals in more than 13,000 simulations (13%).
Harry Kane won the Golden Boot the second-most times, doing so in 12,000 simulations (12%).
The number of goals required to win the award is expected to be eight; the winner scored eight goals in 26,000 simulations while scoring seven came in second at 22,000.
