Buzz around the 2023 NFL draft is picking up steam, as we’re officially inside three weeks until Round 1 kicks off. NFL insider Jeremy Fowler and draft experts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid are here to break down all the latest rumors, risers and quarterback intrigue.
When will the quarterbacks be selected in Round 1? Which teams could be on the move up or down the board? Which prospects could get drafted earlier than expected, and who could be a late-round sleeper? We get into all that and then empty the scouting notebooks with what Jeremy, Matt and Jordan are hearing as we race toward the 2023 draft. Let’s jump in, starting with intel on how the top five QBs could come off the board.
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Round 1 QBs | Teams on move | Sleepers
Pro day risers | Buzz, rumors and notes
What’s the latest on which QB will go No. 1 overall?
Fowler: I asked at least 20 NFL personnel people on this, and the votes are essentially split between Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. There might be a slight edge to Young, but it’s still too close to decipher who the true favorite is right now. The Carolina Panthers have done a stealth job holding the suspense, and only a few people in their building truly know the name that’s going on the draft card.
Many scouts and execs believe Stroud’s stature (6-foot-3, 214 pounds) and status as one of the safest prospects in the class will help him secure the No. 1 spot. But the Panthers’ evaluation process is not done. Carolina will host several of the quarterbacks as part of their top-30 visits. Owner David Tepper values analytics, so it will be interesting to see if that plays a role here, too.
What are the chances one of the top four quarterbacks slides out of the top 10?
Reid: There’s always a chance. We saw something similar in 2021, when Justin Fields fell to No. 11 before the Chicago Bears traded up to take him. Who could it be this year?
Kentucky’s Will Levis seems to be the most likely candidate. I’m still of the belief that he will be selected inside the top 10, but a minor slide beyond the No. 10 spot wouldn’t come as a surprise. Ultimately, I think a team will trade up for Levis because of his excellent physical traits and mobility, along with the high-end moments we saw from him during his breakout 2021 season. The loss of his offensive coordinator and multiple midround offensive linemen — as well as nagging injuries — hampered him last season. He ended up throwing 10 interceptions over 11 starts.
“He looked much better [in 2021] because he was healthy and the offensive coordinator helped him out a ton,” said a pro scout. “It was completely different [last season] because he was banged up, but the talent is easy to see.”
Could Hendon Hooker really go in Round 1?
Miller: Absolutely! With the top four quarterbacks expected to come off the board within the first 10 selections, the door is open for quarterback-needy teams to use a late-Round 1 pick on Hooker. That includes teams that could look to trade up from the second round to get him.
I’ve often said that if it were not for the left ACL injury he suffered in mid-November, Hooker would have been a first-round prospect. I love his ability to throw the deep ball and layer his passes over coverage to spots where his receivers can make a play. And given the positive news we’ve heard regarding his recovery and likely availability sometime this season, it shouldn’t be scoffed at that he could be a legitimate option for, say, the Minnesota Vikings at pick No. 23 overall or even the Baltimore Ravens at No. 22 if Lamar Jackson is traded. Hooker also met with the New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans early this week and has a visit with the Green Bay Packers as part of 13 total pre-draft visits he’ll take, per a source.
Which teams are you hearing could trade up in Round 1?
Reid: I have my eye on the Kansas City Chiefs. We saw them trade up for cornerback Trent McDuffie last year (No. 29 to No. 21), and I could see general manager Brett Veach moving up again this year. With 10 draft picks and a roster that doesn’t have many open spots, it makes sense if the team sees an opportunity to land an impact player. Kansas City has holes at offensive tackle and edge rusher, two positions that are plentiful in the first round. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs move up from No. 31 into the early 20s for a top-tier prospect at one of those spots.
Miller: The Buffalo Bills are another AFC title contender with eyes on moving up, based on what I’ve heard from sources around the league. The Bills will play the board and see who is falling, but with the No. 27 selection, it’s very possible general manager Brandon Beane gets anxious and moves up for an interior offensive lineman or offensive skill player. That said, Buffalo has six total selections in this draft, so trading up very far wouldn’t be possible without mortgaging future draft classes.
Name a prospect who will be drafted higher than we think.
Miller: Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee. Hyatt has been a top-32 player for me since the 2022 season ended, but that’s more of an outlier than a consensus take. I’m standing firm, though — and I think Hyatt could be a top-25 selection. Wide receivers with high-end speed to stretch the field seemingly always rise on draft day, and Hyatt’s production in the SEC should turn heads once coaches get involved in the process of stacking team boards. Hyatt averaged 18.9 yards per reception last year and scored 15 touchdowns en route to a Biletnikoff Award trophy for the nation’s best receiver. He also couldn’t be stopped by Nick Saban’s Alabama defense; multiple scouts are still talking about his six catches for 207 yards and five touchdowns against the Crimson Tide.
Fowler: Nolan Smith, OLB, Georgia. Some scouts are giving off top-10 vibes for Smith, nothing that the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 17 could be his floor. The Detroit Lions, who have the sixth and 18th picks, have done their homework on Smith, who has improved his stock through the process. Fit will be key for Smith. Given he’s 6-foot-2 and 238 pounds, playing every down as a defensive end could wear him down. Some scouts say he’s best served in a 3-4 defense as a speedy pass-rusher who can also drop into coverage.
Reid: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee. If there’s one player who has aced the pre-draft process, it’s Wright. He displayed an improved skill set at the Senior Bowl and then stood out at the combine. And now it seems Wright could be selected in the early teens. At 6-foot-5 and 333 pounds, he has experience at both guard and tackle, and many teams feel like he can play on either the right or left side. A run on offensive tackles could start as early as No. 7 overall with the Las Vegas Raiders, and Wright might be in the early stages of that run, perhaps inside the top 15.
“There wasn’t an offensive tackle that went through a worse gauntlet of pass-rushers, and he passed the test with flying colors,” a scout told me. “He limited [Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr.] during their matchup, [LSU’s BJ] Ojulari couldn’t do anything against him, and he battled hard against [Clemson’s Bryan] Bresee in the bowl game — which most players would’ve opted out of anyway.”
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Darnell Wright’s NFL draft profile
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Name a Day 2 prospect who is getting buzz from scouts and evaluators.
Fowler: Blake Freeland, OT, BYU. Mobile, versatile offensive tackles usually get pushed up the board, and Freeland could be the latest case. One veteran scout had a good comp for him: Kolton Miller. “That checks out for me when I watch him,” the scout said. Freeland has played a lot of football, starting 41 games for the Cougars over four seasons. At 6-foot-8 and 302 pounds, he also only allowed one sack in 2022. While he’s not a lock to go in the second round, he’s a threat to do so given how many teams need tackle help and prioritize the position.
Reid: Jartavius Martin, CB, Illinois. He’s repeatedly mentioned when talking to scouts. “We thought he was going to stay hidden after he suffered the injury during the first day of practices at the Senior Bowl, but the combine completely changed that,” an area scout said to me. Martin has spent time at both safety spots, outside corner and nickelback — and he’s a mainstay on special teams. His instincts stand out, as he trusts what he sees and isn’t shy about attacking downhill once he diagnoses. Martin picked off three passes, broke up 12 more and forced a pair of fumbles last season. After a really good combine showing, it would be surprising if he made it out of the top 75 picks.
Miller: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss. The buzz started at the Senior Bowl, when scouts and coaches were talking about Mingo’s build looking like A.J. Brown‘s. At 6-2 and 220 pounds, he does resemble Brown or Alshon Jeffery when watching him in person. And like those big-bodied wideouts, Mingo has the power to box out defenders and is a menace on breaking routes, helping him to 16.9 yards per catch last season. He ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash at the combine and elevated his status to Round 2 target. Teams such as the Dallas Cowboys, Bills and Chiefs all make sense for him at the end of the second round.
Name a Day 3 prospect who is getting buzz from scouts and evaluators.
Reid: Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas. Even though he was No. 2 running back at Texas behind Bijan Robinson, Johnson caught the eye of scouts. He carried the ball only 93 times last season but averaged six yards per tote. And while he lacks an A-level trait, he’s very well-rounded. Johnson is a natural tackle-breaker who runs with power and vision, and he has also contributed on special teams, which is repeatedly brought up by scouts on what separates him from the rest of a deep running back class. The most common projection for Johnson from people in the league is the third or fourth round.
Miller: Dorian Thompson-Robinson, QB, UCLA. The quarterback class has a sizable drop-off in talent after Hendon Hooker, but scouts are starting to buzz about Thompson-Robinson, likely the QB6 in this class. DTR is a former top prep recruit who started 48 times in college and was highly productive as both a passer and runner, finishing 11th last season in QBR (82.1) and also rushing for 12 touchdowns. With 4.56 speed and experience in a pro-style system, Thompson-Robinson isn’t the project many are expecting him to be in the NFL. An early Day 3 selection wouldn’t surprise me.
Fowler: Scott Matlock, DT, Boise State. He was an All-Mountain West second-teamer who didn’t participate in the combine, but he showed at his pro day that he can move at 6-foot-4 and 296 pounds, and scouts see value in the later rounds. “I like his athleticism, body type, lower-body strength and flexibility,” a veteran scout said. “I think he will develop into a starter.”
As a bonus, TCU running back Kendre Miller has had a quiet pre-draft process while recovering from an MCL injury, but he still has plenty of fans in NFL circles because of his toughness and explosion.
Who is rising based on his pro day workout?
Miller: Trenton Simpson, ILB, Clemson. First, Simpson impressed at the combine with a 4.43-second run in the 40-yard-dash. Then he wowed at his pro day workout on March 14. At 6-foot-3 and 234 pounds, Simpson ran a 4.22-second short shuttle and a 6.89-second three-cone drill. He also jumped an impressive 40.5 inches. The 2023 class isn’t seen as particularly strong at linebacker, but Simpson is the best off-ball LB in the class and should be a top-40 selection.
Reid: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan. After only participating in the bench press at the combine (34 reps), Smith had a lot of questions to answer at the Wolverines’ pro day on March 17. His numbers didn’t reach some of the expectations of scouts, but he did show off his nimbleness, endurance and strength during the on-field workout portion of the day. In a down year for interior defensive linemen, Smith is a player that teams continue to value highly because of his ability to anchor at the point of attack and how he progressively improved over the course of last season. At 6-foot-3 and 323 pounds, he’s a plugger in the middle of the defense. Scouts I’ve talked to say Smith is likely to go in the Nos. 25-31 range at the back end of the first round. All of the teams in that range have needs along the interior defensive front.
News, notes and nuggets we heard this week
Miller: ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported this week that Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter would not take visits with teams selecting outside the top 10. Scouts and executives around the league weren’t surprised. “More players should do this, honestly,” said one college scouting director. When asked to predict Carter’s landing spot, more than 10 scouts and execs polled believed he would be drafted at No. 5 (Seattle Seahawks) or No. 9 (Chicago Bears). And no one polled thought he would slip out of the top 10 picks.
Fowler: Yeah, and a lot of folks I’ve spoken to think Carter won’t fall out of the top 10 because the Philadelphia Eagles hold the 10th spot. “That feels like a Howie Roseman pick,” said an AFC scout. Roseman does love drafting linemen, but part of the potential connection here is the Eagles have strong leadership along the defensive line with Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and others. Plus, Carter’s former Georgia teammate, Jordan Davis, enters his second year with the Eagles. Most agree that Carter would be best-served going to a team with a well-established culture of winning and accountability. He could of course go earlier than No. 10, but the Eagles might serve as a backstop.
Reid: Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon had his personal pro day in front of scouts and evaluators for 23 teams on Wednesday. He recorded 40-yard dash times in the 4.41-4.43 range, according to two sources in attendance. Witherspoon opted out of agility drills because of his previous hamstring injury, but he did positional drills. “I thought he looked really, really good,” said a scout I spoke with afterward. “We just needed to see that he was past the hamstring injury. The film is solid, but there were some questions about his long speed, and he answered that today.” Witherspoon is a contender to be the first cornerback off the board. The Lions have been a popular projected landing spot for him, and their first pick at No. 6 is likely where the CB run could start on draft day.
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Devon Witherspoon’s NFL draft profile
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Fowler: I recently caught up with Kentucky coach Mark Stoops, who said several teams picking in the top 10 have done their homework on Will Levis. The Indianapolis Colts, who hold the No. 4 overall pick, worked out Levis on Thursday in Lexington. I’ve spoken to multiple teams that are linking the Colts to Levis as a good fit, considering he’s a sturdy pocket passer who fits the mold of past Colts quarterbacks. Stoops calls Levis a “very likable young man” who never goes through the motions with his work ethic. “I truly believe in Will being a franchise quarterback, a guy you can build a team around,” Stoops told me. While some teams are divided on whether Levis belongs in the highest tier of quarterbacks in the class, many believe he’s too talented to slip out of the top 10.
Miller: Alabama defensive back Brian Branch didn’t help his stock with a 4.58-second run in the 40-yard dash at the combine, but scouts I spoke to this week believe he’s still the best safety in the class and a firm Round 1 talent. “He’ll fall a little because of the speed like Kyle Hamilton did [in 2022], but he’s too smart and too versatile to fall far,” is how one AFC scout put it. Branch was a leader for the Alabama defense and had 12 tackles for loss, 3 sacks, 2 interceptions and 7 pass breakups in 2022. Teams such as the Cincinnati Bengals, Bills and Eagles all make sense from a value and need standpoint.
Fowler: The Ravens being in the quarterback market during draft week can’t be discounted. GM Eric DeCosta told local media that Baltimore has quarterbacks ranked in its top 31, and I have talked to multiple scouts who believe Baltimore is doing its pre-draft homework on passers. Sources say Baltimore pursued both Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett in free agency, a clear sign that the team is looking for alternatives in case Lamar Jackson gets traded or doesn’t sign his franchise tag. And while the top-four passers will likely be long gone by Baltimore’s pick at No. 22, Hendon Hooker could squeeze into the first round even though many teams consider him an early-second-rounder. It’s also worth pointing out that new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken just won back-to-back national championships with Georgia’s Stetson Bennett, a late-round option.
Reid: After nursing a hamstring injury that kept him out of the combine, Clemson edge rusher Myles Murphy had his own personal pro day in front of scouts and evaluators. Measuring at 6-foot-4 and 268 pounds, he ran a 4.51 40-yard dash time while also impressing during the on-field drills. One scout suggested, “He solidified his status as a first-round-caliber player. I was really impressed with the way he moved around.” There are mixed opinions about who the second edge rusher after Will Anderson Jr. will be, but Murphy’s workout put him in contention to be selected inside the top 15.
Fowler: Teams I’ve talked to believe two tight ends — most likely Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and Utah’s Dalton Kincaid — have a pretty good chance to go in the first round. A tight end at No. 15 might be rich for the Green Bay Packers, but they desperately need a capable pass-catcher over the middle for Jordan Love (assuming Aaron Rodgers is indeed traded). Also in pass-catching buzz, don’t be shocked if Boston College’s Zay Flowers is the first wide receiver off the board. His stock is surging.
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Michael Mayer’s NFL draft profile
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Miller: One player flying up boards as teams set their rankings is Penn State tight end Brenton Strange. He’s a hot name right now in what’s seen as a historically deep tight end class. Strange had a solid all-around combine workout, running a 4.70 at 6-foot-4 and 253 pounds, and teams see him firmly in the position’s second tier. Three scouts I spoke with this week — two in the NFC, one in the AFC — believed Strange would be a late-second-round pick.
Fowler: Here’s a pretty telling quote from an AFC exec on Texas running back Bijan Robinson: “He might be the best player in the entire class.” If Robinson’s position had more draft value, he’d be a lock for the top 10. But regardless, he won’t slip too far. Robinson rushed for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns last season.
Miller: Northwestern defensive lineman Adetomiwa Adebawore was the talk of the town following his impressive combine performance, which included a 4.49 in the 40-yard dash at 282 pounds. But his stock has come back down to earth in recent weeks, according to some scouts around the league. One NFC scout said Adebawore had a Round 3 grade on his team’s board but believed the versatile defensive lineman would be “overdrafted in the early second” following his workout. With no clear-cut position and spotty college production — he had 9.5 sacks the past two seasons combined — teams are preaching caution with Adebawore.
Fowler: The Bears (No. 9), Titans (No. 11) and New York Jets (No. 13) are among teams that scouts believe will strongly consider offensive line help with their top picks. These teams met with Georgia’s Broderick Jones this week. Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski — whom one NFC scout says has the ability to become a Hall of Fame-type guard — is an option for the top 10, and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. and Tennessee’s Darnell Wright are also well-positioned for high picks. Once one offensive lineman comes off the board, a run on tackles could follow.
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