Only two months of the Major League Baseball season remain until the playoffs get underway. That means the races for MLB awards get more intense and interesting — specifically an award that has been neither in several years.
The National League MVP has been a runaway in the two years Shohei Ohtani has been a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and it was looking to be that way again until just recently. The two-way star was having a dominant season on the mound, and a productive (even if slightly subpar by his standards) year at the plate.
Early in the summer, the odds for Ohtani to win a fourth straight MVP, (third straight in the National League and fifth overall) were so astronomical that it was nearly off the betting menu, having to risk $100 to win $1 on the Dodgers’ superstar at some sportsbooks. Ohtani entered June with a sub-1 era as a pitcher, making him a strong Cy Young candidate in addition to seemingly being a lock for MVP.
But since then, Ohtani gave up multiple runs in each of his next four starts, and has not pitched since July 3, as he battles knee discomfort.
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The betting odds now reflect what is thought to be a coin flip between Ohtani and Chicago Cubs centerfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Crow-Armstrong leads Ohtani — and the rest of baseball — in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) with 6.5, with Ohtani currently at 6.0. Ohtani is still the slight favorite to win MVP at -130 odds (a $13 bet wins $10), while Crow-Armstrong is +100 (a $10 bet wins $10).
It might be boring, but I still think, given the current odds, Ohtani is the bet to make. Maybe a couple of weeks ago, taking Crow-Armstrong at long odds was the right wager, but now I think the price has gotten low enough to back Ohtani to win once again.
You will hear the case be made that “voter fatigue” favors someone new winning, that writers prefer not to vote for the same person year after year. However, in baseball, that doesn’t seem as prevalent as it might be in other sports.
PCA is firmly in the running to put an end to Ohtani’s MVP streak (Getty Images).
Baseball writers have not only continued to give Ohtani the MVP, but Aaron Judge won a close MVP race in the American League over Cal Raleigh last fall, despite Judge having already won the award multiple times. Last year’s AL and NL Managers of the Year were Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians and Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers, both repeat winners after also winning the award in 2024.
Again, baseball writers have proven they will most likely vote for who they simply feel deserves the award and not punish candidates for prior accomplishments.
Ohtani has left the door open for someone else to win since he has not thrown a pitch in nearly a month. But he is 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA as a pitcher, and has a .289 batting average with 23 home runs with the bat in his hands.
Any return to the mound for Ohtani this season will make it hard for voters to ignore his two-way production, who, unlike PCA, is on a first-place team.
