That NFL itch has been there, but now it’s starting to get scratched.
With the preseason underway, and the regular season kicking off in a matter of weeks, I’m making bets.
Here are two of my favorite bets in the NFC North.
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Lions’ Win Total, Lions’ NFC North Finish
The Lions finished 9-8 last season, which was good for a fourth-place record in the NFC North. That gives the Lions three games against other fourth-place seeds from the three other NFC divisions.
Detroit will face the Giants, Saints and Cardinals, while the rest of the division has a tougher schedule, and that alone gives the Lions a leg up in their race to win the division.
The 2025 Lions were third in total DVOA, but I’m not sure they played like that team for a good chunk of the season. The offense was slightly uneven after offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left for the Bears in the offseason. Detroit missed his play sequencing and steady guiding hand, and head coach Dan Campbell eventually took over the play calling.
This offseason, the Lions hired Drew Petzing, and they hope he can help them return to that game-to-game, drive-to-drive offensive efficiency. What will surely help the offense is the offensive line returning to being one of the best in the sport. It has been retooled a bit, and even though it’s taken an early hit with center Cade Mays out for a stint, it should be good again.
The Lions have above-average skill position players, highlighted by Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown. And of course, quarterback Jared Goff can still spin it well.
Jahmyr Gibbs received a new record-breaking contract from Detroit this offseason. (Getty Images)
Defensively, Detroit needs more pass rush outside of Aidan Hutchinson. It is hopeful young players can fill that role — Alim McNeill and Tyleik Williams inside, with rookie draft pick Derrick Moore on the edge. The Lions’ linebackers are solid and some returning pieces in the secondary, like a healthy Brian Branch, will be important for their success. The Lions just need an average defense if their offense plays well.
Picking the Lions to win the division means that I’m “down” on the other three teams.
The Packers just don’t scare me. What about them is scary? Micah Parsons? Sure, but he’s not starting the season healthy. I always find it difficult to pick a division winner without players that I fear.
I believe the Bears will be a better team this season with a worse record. Weird, yes, but plausible. They won six games last season in which they were trailing with under two minutes left and that just won’t happen this season. Teams that win a ton of one-score games tend to see that number flip in the other direction the next season.
I’m intrigued by the Vikings with Kyler Murray. It’s an uber-talented team, but I’m not sure I fully trust Murray right now.
Schwartz’s Pick: Lions Over 10.5 Wins (-115), Lions to Win NFC North (+170)
This is my favorite prop of the NFL season.
Colston Loveland is going to have over 1,000 yards receiving this season in his second NFL campaign. In 16 games last season, Loveland had 58 catches on 82 targets for 713 yards. He’s going to explode this year, as Caleb Williams improves his game and offensive coordinator/head coach Ben Johnson figures out ways to get Loveland the ball more often.
Also, DJ Moore has left the roster and his 85 targets have to go somewhere. Some of those might find their way to Luther Burden, but he’s already hurt in camp. It’s not serious enough to hold him out of the regular season, but I don’t like muscle strains in the preseason. They tend to stay with the player the entire year.
