NASCAR enters its last regular-season race with three playoff spots on the line and a new rules package.
Here are my thoughts on a few questions going into the event:
Who Gets The Last Few Playoff Spots?
Bubba Wallace should capture one of the final three spots for The Chase at Daytona.
There are five drivers vying for three spots — Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric, Shane van Gisbergen, Ryan Preece and Brad Keselowski.
Preece and Keselowski are the two drivers on the outside looking in at the moment.
The standings: Wallace (+75 on the cutoff), Cindric (+44), van Gisbergen (+31), Preece (-31) and Keselowski (-66). SVG actually has another point as a buffer, as he would own the tiebreaker with his two wins this year.
A driver can earn at most 76 points in a race — 55 points for the win, 10 points for winning each stage (where points are awarded on a 10-to-1 scale to the top 10) and one point for posting the fastest lap.
That makes Keselowski’s chance very, very slim, as he needs to win and earn stage points. And Preece most likely needs to win. Second place is worth only 35 points.
Wallace is in. For him not to get in, Preece would have to sweep the stages, win the race and have the fastest lap in the race, while Wallace would have to finish 36th or worse.
Cindric also should feel good. Keselowski can’t catch him and Preece has earned 44 or more points only once this year. The only question for Cindric is whether to try to earn stage points and potentially clinch a spot by the end of the second stage.
SVG could eliminate Keselowski with some stage points, and truly it comes down to him and Preece.
Does SVG ride in the back and hope that Preece doesn’t make it close by earning stage points? Or does he try to stay in the mix and get stage points to make it tougher on Preece at the end while also risking getting into an accident himself?
His best bet is to play offense (at least for the first stage). He would kick himself if he went into conservative mode and Preece closed the gap to 15 at the end of the second stage.
Preece and Keselowski are long shots. Expect no changes to the top 16 as far as drivers vying for the title.
Will New Rule Changes Make A Difference?
Will aero changes impact racing at Daytona this weekend?
After talking to people this week, I realized that there are a variety of views on whether NASCAR’s aero changes will allow drivers more ability to make moves. With those changes, drivers can’t get as close nose-to-tail and therefore will have less incentive to save gas and keep track position.
The rear spoiler is now four inches instead of seven. Horsepower will be reduced to 465 from 515-520.
It is difficult to simulate Daytona racing for these teams in the wind tunnel because of the draft. It is also difficult to predict how the tires will react in this scenario.
At least NASCAR is trying something. And maybe at least for this race, drivers will experiment, especially since many already know their postseason fate.
Sure, points could matter in the reset and for those outside the top 16 vying for spots in the standings, but drivers hate just racing in line.
So will it work?
Not sure. But the race should give a good indication of whether it will, as plenty of drivers should be willing to at least try to make a move and see if more drivers would go with them than in the past.
Why Won’t Denny Hamlin Get A Trophy?
Denny Hamlin’s regular-season title is coming with very little fanfare this season.
Hamlin will finish as the points leader after Daytona and will earn the top seed going into the Chase.
But as part of the league getting rid of the term “playoffs” and trying to be more true to its roots, NASCAR isn’t recognizing a champion for its regular season.
Boooooo.
Hamlin earning the most points over the first 26 races should be celebrated. The team has accomplished a great feat. Hamlin and his team deserve a trophy. And a banner. And hats. And t-shirts.
It’s just like winning a division in other sports. It isn’t the main goal but consistent performance should be rewarded and celebrated in a meaningful way. Get Hamlin a trophy.
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