Even before the 12-team College Football Playoff format, the Group of Five (now Group of Six) programs had their shot at competing with the top teams in the nation.
However, none of them have been successful in the postseason.
In 2021, the Cincinnati Bearcats were the first and only Group of Five team to make the four-team Playoff format. Then the format expanded to 12 teams in 2024. Boise State was awarded a No. 3 ranking in the inaugural expansion Playoff year, while Tulane and James Madison had their turn in the Playoff in 2025.
From Cincinnati’s chance in 2021, to JMU and Tulane’s opportunity last season, the teams in the G6 have a 21.5-point average margin of defeat.
Eventually, a non-Power 4 program has to be the one to make history. Is this the year when a Group of Six team can finally break through and win a Playoff game, or even make a run at the title?
Each week, we’ll see which Group of Six contenders has the best chance of making the playoffs and being the first G6 program to win a Playoff game.
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G6 Teams With the Best Chance of Making CFP
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
As mentioned earlier, Boise State made its CFP debut in 2024 when it went 11-1 in the regular season. After an 8-4 campaign in 2025, the Broncos return the third-most starters for the 2026 season, bringing back their quarterback, leading rusher and sack leader. Even with a move to a new conference, Boise State is the favorite to win the Pac-12. The reigning Mountain West champions face a tough test in Week 1 against No. 2 Oregon, but if they can keep it competitive, it could boost their résumé in the long run. Don’t be surprised when the Boise State Broncos make their return to this CFP this winter.
Odds To Make CFP: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
With all the top teams losing their coaches in the American Conference, Navy was one of the few top teams to keep its coach. Coming off a 10-2 regular-season campaign in 2025, the Midshipmen are primed for a big 2026 season. Even with Blake Horvath no longer with the program, expect the AAC favorites to have one of the best running games in the country with four returning offensive linemen. With a lot of new coaches in the conference, this is the year Brian Newberry and the Midshipmen can make a run at the CFP.
Odds To Make CFP: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
Welcome to the big leagues, North Dakota State. One of the most dominant programs at the FCS level will play in the Mountain West, the same conference in which Boise State made its CFP debut. Now, it’s the Bisons’ turn to stake their claim. Over the last 10 years, NDSU has a 123-18 record at the FCS level. FOX Sports CFB writer RJ Young has them ranked 26th out of 168.
Odds To Make CFP: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
South Florida had to find a new head coach and players after Alex Golesh took over the Auburn head coaching job. It struck gold with Brian Hartline from Ohio State. In his first offseason as the man in charge, he brought in the top transfer class in the AAC. His offensive expertise, paired with the easiest strength of schedule in the conference (No. 127 in the country), gives the Bulls a chance to make their case for the CFP in Hartline’s first year.
Odds To Make CFP: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
If Dan Mullen brings anything to the table, it’s a high-powered offense that can score points in bunches. The sixth-best offense in terms of total yards and the top offense in the Mountain West last season now adds Jackson Arnold. The former five-star has had his struggles, but if there’s anybody who can get him to play his best, it’s Mullen. Alongside their leading rusher returning, Jai’den Thomas, expect the Rebels to build off their 10-2 regular season in 2025.
Odds To Make CFP: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
The Dukes have their eyes set on returning to the CFP stage, but it’ll be with somebody new leading the charge. Billy Napier is back coaching in the Sun Belt Conference, where he once dominated. He spent four seasons at Louisiana from 2017-2021, winning two conference titles. With one of the easiest schedules in the Sun Belt, one of the top transfer classes in the conference, and Napier back where he dominated, the SBC favorites have a real chance to make back-to-back CFP appearances.
Odds To Make CFP: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
Jason Eck is back for his second season coaching the Lobos, and he returns the second-most starters in college football (14). Two of the most important returning players are quarterback Jack Lyne and leading tackler Jaxton Eck. Yes, Jaxton is his son, and the Lobos could be for real this year.
Odds To Make CFP: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
This is Fresno State’s first season in the new-look Pac-12 under second-year head coach Matt Entz. The Bulldogs went 9-4 in 2025, including a win over Boise State in Mountain West play. Fresno State also boasted one of the nation’s top defenses, leading the Mountain West and ranking 10th in the FBS in total defense at 285.7 yards allowed per game. The Bulldogs will open the 2026 season at USC in Week 1, a matchup that should provide an early indication of what this team is capable of in its new conference and could prove invaluable down the line.
Odds To Make CFP: +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
Hawaii will open its 2026 campaign at Stanford in Week 0 with expectations high after a 9-4 season in 2025. Micah Alejandro will take over as the Rainbow Warriors’ starting quarterback after throwing for 3,106 yards and 24 touchdowns as a freshman despite battling injuries throughout the season. With a new-look Mountain West ahead, Timmy Chang enters his fifth season with the program trending in the right direction. Can Hawaii take the next step in 2026?
Odds To Make CFP: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)
Record: 0-0
Previous ranking: N/A
In 2025, the Aztecs allowed the fifth-fewest points in the country, and they return 43% of that production in 2026. Entering their first season in the Pac-12, San Diego State will look to build on a 9-4 campaign that included a 34-0 win over a 7-6 Cal team and a late-season victory over the No. 1 team in these rankings, Boise State, showing the Aztecs’ ceiling when they are at their best. Now in Year 3 under Sean Lewis, Jayden Denegal will take over as the starting quarterback after battling multiple injuries last season.
Odds To Make CFP: +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total)
