For several years, the public betting masses took the Over on the Chiefs in NFL season win totals.
And why not, with Patrick Mahomes at the helm and Kansas City a constant Super Bowl contender?
However, Mahomes suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 15 last season. And that has bettors skeptical of taking Over 10.5 wins this year, even with Mahomes expected back in Week 1.
“The number has stayed at 10.5, but there’s far more action on the Under,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “That’s not normally what you see with the Chiefs.”
Feazel serves up his insights on 2026 NFL win totals, highlighting the most notable Over and Under action.
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Bettors love the Minnesota Vikings over 8.5 wins in 2026 (Bailey Hillesheim/Getty Images).
Going Over-Board
For a third straight season, the Vikings will have a new starting quarterback.
Two years ago, Sam Darnold had a breakout campaign, then left for the Seahawks. Last year, J.J. McCarthy ascended to starter. Then this past offseason, Minnesota nabbed ex-Cardinals QB Kyler Murray in free agency. Murray subsequently beat out McCarthy to become the starter.
Bettors engaging in NFL season win totals seemed to like that outcome.
“The Vikings are one team that has been trending positive the entire offseason. Bettors are expecting Kyler Murray to be a difference maker,” Feazel said. “We’ve gone from 7.5 wins to 8.5 wins, and they’re still betting the Over.”
In fact, Over 8.5 is now a -140 favorite, with Under 8.5 at +115.
“The Vikings action is the most surprising to me. There was a good portion of months where it was extraordinary Over action,” Feazel said.
The Cowboys are always popular with the betting public, and that’s again the case this year, with Dallas trending much like Minnesota.
“It’s the same thing with the Cowboys. We’ve gone from 8.5 to 9.5, and they’re still betting the Over,” Feazel said.
Dallas Over 9.5 is a slight favorite at -115, with Under 9.5 at -105.
The Rams are the favorite in Super Bowl odds, at Caesars and everywhere else. So Los Angeles is drawing Over bets, as well.
“There’s a lot of action for the Rams to win the Super Bowl. There’s not as much [with] in-season wins, but we still went from 10.5 to 11.5,” Feazel said. “And they’re still betting the Over.”
Indeed, the Rams are the only team favored to surpass 11.5 wins. Caesars has Over 11.5 at -140 and Under 11.5 at +118.
The Ravens are also at 11.5 wins, but Under is -160 and Over +120.
Bettors are fading the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026 (Ryan Kang/Getty Images).
Overwhelming Under Action
As noted above, the Chiefs are projected to reach double-digit wins. But getting 11 or more is another story.
Kansas City Under 10.5 wins is a -150 favorite at Caesars, with Over 10.5 a +120 underdog. And as Feazel said, the heavier action is on the Under.
Ditto for another perennial contender, the 49ers. San Francisco went 12-5 in the regular season last year but continued to be plagued by injuries.
This year, Caesars has San Francisco at 10.5 in NFL regular-season win totals, with the Under a substantial -160 favorite and Over at +130.
Early bettors just aren’t seeing 11 wins from San Fran.
“The 49ers seem to struggle with injuries year in and year out,” Feazel said. “But the 49ers are always popular in [Super Bowl] futures, so it’s a little surprising to see Under money there.”
Less surprising is seeing the Dolphins take Under action. Miami is in full rebuild mode, with new coach Jeff Hafley and new QB Malik Willis, among other notable changes.
The Dolphins opened at 4.5 wins, and as of Wednesday afternoon, the Under was a hefty -180 favorite, with the Over at +150. By Friday morning, Caesars dropped the Dolphins’ win total to 3.5, with Over -150 and Under +126.
“There’s an expectation that this team is not going to be good at all,” Feazel said. “It’s been all one-way traffic toward the Under.”
Bettors also aren’t expecting the Buccaneers to surpass 8.5 wins, with the Under now -145 and the Over +122.
“The Bucs have some problems, with Baker Mayfield negotiations and with losing Mike Evans,” Feazel said, alluding to the star wideout leaving to join the 49ers. “So Tampa is another team that they’re betting to the Under.”
