It’s time for this week’s Sportsbook Whispers.
Alabama is a fascinating case study this year because it is ranked outside the preseason AP Top 10 for the first time since 2008. That was Nick Saban’s second season in Tuscaloosa and the Tide exceeded expectations, finishing 12-2 after a Sugar Bowl loss to undefeated Utah.
Time flies, eh?
Last year, Alabama finished 11-4, but the lasting image of its season was a 38-3 dismantling at the hands of eventual champion Indiana.
“Alabama could not run the ball last season,” newly retired bookmaker Ed Salmons told me from Las Vegas. “That was never an issue at the height of their powers under Nick Saban. I like Kalen DeBoer and there’s always going to be talent there, but they must get back to running the ball.”
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Most wise guys I know who make power ratings have Bama just outside the top 10 with room to grow. I frequently share notes with handicappers, like Motoi Pearson and Brad Powers, who rank the Tide 11th and 13th respectively.
One former bookmaker turned bettor is higher.
“I have Alabama eighth,” he admitted. “I have Ohio State one, Notre Dame and Oregon tied at two, Texas four, Georgia and Indiana tied at five. Miami seven.
“Alabama acquired a ton of talent in the transfer portal, and they added five transfers in the offensive line room. So DeBoer clearly addressed their weaknesses. And the quarterback is young, but he’s a five-star recruit.
“I admit I’m probably a little high, mostly because I believe in team pedigree and I like their coaching staff. That said, the market took 28.5 and 28 with East Carolina over the last few days, so that was interesting.”
What else?
“One big disagreement I have is Houston-Oregon State,” he continued. “I think the market is almost a touchdown light. I make Houston -27. Maybe I’m missing something.
“We bet Florida State +3 against SMU, too. There’s only one way to bet that game. It’s Florida State or pass. My preseason number was pick ‘em, and you can’t over adjust to one result. This number shouldn’t be 3.
“The books are going to write all SMU tickets, though, so I get it.”
Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel expects an avalanche of tickets on Kevin Jennings and the Mustangs in Monday night’s standalone.
“[Florida State] left a lot to be desired against New Mexico State,” Feazel said. “They’ve struggled for a couple years now, and it looks like it’s going to be one-way action. The line is holding steady around 3, but we were at 1.5 and 2 before Week 0.
“It’ll be one of our biggest handled college games of the year because it’s the only game Monday night and the NFL isn’t back yet.”
If you’ve been around this racket as long as I have, you know every sportsbook has an uncomfortable liability on a player to win the Heisman. Obviously, customers tend to bet players near the top, but there’s always a code-red long shot that would clean a book’s clock if he won the award.
“For us, it’s Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz,” Feazel reported. “We wrote a sizable bet on him at 80/1 for a big number. So that’s the easy answer. There are a lot more tickets on John Mateer and Arch Manning, but Kienholz would be the worst result for us at this point in time.”
Finally, we must give Bill Belichick his flowers.
North Carolina was as high as 9.5-point dogs last week against TCU and pulled the outright upset at Dublin’s Aviva Stadium.
Or maybe the market was just too high on the Horned Frogs, who ironically lost outright as a 20.5-point favorite three years ago to Colorado in Deion Sanders’ first game as head coach in Boulder.
Quarterback Josh Hoover ain’t walking through that door. He left TCU to be the new starter for Curt Cignetti as Indiana tries to win back-to-back titles.
“I downgraded TCU 2.5 points,” professional bettor Corbie Craig told me. Craig did have a bet on UNC plus the points. “It is worth noting TCU’s No. 1 wide receiver didn’t play Saturday, but I still moved my number nicely.”
