The NFL kickoff is officially one week out, triggering the annual wave of hot takes, hot seats, and high expectations. From chaotic division battles to dark-horse contenders, no outcome is off the table for this season.
With two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes returning from a season-ending injury, all eyes shift to a wide-open AFC West. The Denver Broncos came within a game of the Super Bowl, but was their breakout season a real power shift in the division or was it just fool’s gold?
During Tuesday’s segment on FOX Sports’ show First Things First, hosts Nick Wright, Chris Broussard and Danny Parkins made their predictions. Here’s how they see the division unfolding.
Nick Wright’s AFC West Prediction
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To no one’s surprise, Wright has the Chiefs reclaiming the AFC West title, with the Broncos hot on their heels. However, his Chargers’ third-place analysis stood out, as he predicted them for third place, largely due to a brutal Week 3 through 10 schedule.
“I don’t think they’re gonna be terrible,” Wright said. “Weeks three through 10…how’s this work for you? Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans, Ravens. Around week nine is when we’re gonna start hearing, guys year eight is the year Justin Herbert pops.”
Wright’s doubt regarding Herbert is nothing new, but his Broncos take relies on simple regression. Denver and Chicago were incredibly clutch in the fourth quarter last year, but Wright foresees those close-game bounces leveling off this season.
“They played 17 games in the regular season last like everyone, but they trailed in 15 of them,” Wright said. “They had a historically good record in one-score games. John Franklin Meyers is gone and Jonathan Cooper’s on the exempt list.”
Despite the adversity facing the Broncos this season, Wright still sees them as a playoff team. He projected them to finish 11-6 and finish second in the AFC West, driven largely by his confidence in head coach Sean Payton.
As a self-proclaimed Chiefs fan, Wright’s division pick comes as no surprise, but his logic is sound. The Chiefs have dominated the AFC West with nine titles in the last decade, and their defense looks noticeably stronger heading into this season.
“My pick for defensive player of the year was going to be Chris Jones because all of a sudden he has someone next to him,” Wright said. “Yeah, Peter Woods, who was projected to go top-five in the draft 14 months ago.”
Wright’s praise of the young Chiefs defense didn’t slow down.
“They’ve got R. Mason Thomas as another edge coming around and then Mansoor Delane, a top-six pick at cornerback,” Wright said. “So you’re going to have three months for this young defense, young secondary to learn [Steve] Spagnuolo’s scheme.”
Chris Broussard’s AFC West Prediction
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Broussard saw things entirely differently, dropping Kansas City to third place in his division standings. Unlike Wright, Broussard is buying into Los Angeles, picking the Chargers to dethrone the Chiefs and take the AFC West title.
“The schedule is kind of light for them [Chiefs],” Broussard said. “So I got them sneaking in [the playoffs]. I really am high on the Chargers. I think [Jim] Harbaugh is excellent. [Jesse] Minter is a big loss, but Harbaugh has always had good defenses in the NFL himself.”
Not only is Broussard picking the Chargers to win the AFC West, but he is fully sold on the new pairing of offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel and quarterback Justin Herbert. In fact, he even expects Herbert to finish as an MVP finalist this season.
“So look, [Mike] McDaniel, maybe I’m giving him too much credit,” Broussard said. “But Tua [Tagovailoa] led the league in passing with Mike McDaniel. Herbert’s got talent. I think McDaniel and Herbert are going to be great together. I expect Herbert to be in the MVP conversation.”
Danny Parkins’ AFC West Prediction
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Unlike Wright and Broussard, Parkins has the Chiefs missing the playoffs as they finish in third place in his AFC West predictions.
“Lotta questions for the Chiefs,” Parkins said before unveiling 10 reasons why they won’t make the playoffs, including their young roster, stars like Travis Kelce and Chris Jones aging and he believes that they’re no longer invincible. Parkins added that Kansas City’s schedule is tough (it ranks fifth in opponents’ winning percentage from last season) and that wide receiver Rashee Rice isn’t trustworthy.
As for the rest of the division, Parkins said that the Raiders have a “pretty solid foundation for a last-place team” before calling on them to trade star edge rusher Maxx Crosby. For the Broncos, Parkins said that he thinks this year’s team is better than the squad that went 14-3 a year ago and likes their addition of wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. However, he doesn’t think they’ll have the same luck they had in one-score games last season.
Finally, Parkins picked the Chargers to finish in first for a “simple” reason.
“You have Justin Herbert. You have Jim Harbaugh. You have Mike McDaniel. You have the inevitability of Herbert’s talents,” Parkins said.
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