2023 NFL passing title odds, best bets, expert pick

With mandatory minicamps underway and the NFL season just a little more than two months away, fans and bettors are already digging into quarterbacks’ passing props. And one of the most notable betting markets for QB props is the regular season total passing yards.

With 5,250 passing yards, Patrick Mahomes led this category in 2022. Showtime punctuated his passing yard title by leading the Kansas City Chiefs to their second Super Bowl win in four years. But he entered the season with only the third-best odds to be crowned king of passing at most sportsbooks. It doesn’t look like books are making that mistake again, as Mahomes opened as the odds-on favorite to lead the league in passing yards.

And then you have the case of Seattle’s Geno Smith. He wasn’t even in the passing leader conversation heading into 2022 because he was busy battling teammate Drew Lock for the starting position. By the end of the season, though, he had the fifth-most passing yards in the league with 4,282. He enters this season 13th on the odds board. Can he surprise again? Or will another contender have a big year to dethrone the favorite?

Without further ado, let’s dive into the odds.

MOST REGULAR SEASON TOTAL PASSING YARDS*

Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs): +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals): +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers): +700 (bet $10 to win $80 total)
Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings): +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins): +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills): +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total)
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars): +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Jared Goff (Detroit Lions): +1800 (bet $10 to win $190 total)
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys): +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Derek Carr (New Orleans Saints): +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Aaron Rodgers (New York Jets): +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Matt Stafford (Los Angeles Rams): +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks): +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles): +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos): +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns): +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Jimmy Garoppolo (Las Vegas Raiders): +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens): +4000 (bet $10 to win $410 total)
Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers): +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total)

*odds as of 6/16/2023

If you’re looking for some help on who to place your NFL passing leader wagers on, we’ve got you covered with help from our expert, FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz.

Here are the QBs he thinks are worth sprinkling some money on.

Justin Herbert +700

In Herbert’s sophomore season in the league — his first as QB1 — he threw for over 5,000 yards. Last season, he took a “step back” and only threw for 4,739 yards, good for second behind Mahomes. Keep in mind, the Chargers QB has thrown for all these yards with a poor offensive design that failed to highlight his physical abilities.

That should change now that LAC hired Kellen Moore as OC, giving Herbert a real NFL offense. One tailored toward his cannon and ability to make throws that only a few in the NFL can dream about. The Chargers also added receiver Derius Davis in the NFL Draft, and they should bounce back from the bad-luck injuries they’ve had all over the field, including at wide receiver.

All of this leads me to believe Herbert will win this title.

PICK: Justin Herbert (+700) for NFL passing leader

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Dak Prescott +2000

Dak Prescott is my long shot to win the passing title because he’s been close to throwing for 5,000 yards the last two full seasons he has played (4902 yards in 2019, 4449 yards in 2021).

He is still young and vibrant, so he’s ahead of a quarterback like Matthew Stafford. Staffy has the arm strength but does not have the stamina, or Rams personnel, to make this happen. On the other hand, the Cowboys have an offense full of possible targets for Prescott (including the addition of Brandin Cooks) and an offensive line that can block long enough for the QB to make defenses pay.

There is one caveat, however. The Cowboys said they will look to run the ball more next season, which obviously isn’t ideal for this wager. But hear me when I say this: teams always claim they’d like to run the ball more, but they never do.

At this price, Prescott is definitely worth taking a flier on.

PICK: Dak Prescott (+2000) for NFL passing leader

Stay tuned to FOX Sports as the NFL passing leader race unfolds next season!

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