MLB Draft 2023: What to know about every first-round pick

SEATTLE — The MLB Draft has begun, and so have the fireworks.

Held at Lumen Field as part of this week’s All-Star festivities, there was nonstop buzz leading up to Sunday evening about what the Pirates would do with the top pick. As our final mock predicted, history, in fact, was made after just two selections.

Here’s what you need to know about all 28 of the 2023 first-round picks.

1. Pittsburgh Pirates — RHP Paul Skenes; LSU

Most evaluators agree that Skenes is the best college pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. After spending his first two college seasons at the Air Force Academy as a two-way player, Skenes transferred to the powerhouse LSU Tigers for his junior draft season. Upon arrival in Baton Rouge, Skenes became a full-time pitcher and embarked on one of the most dominant college pitching seasons in years, one that concluded with two masterful starts in the College World Series and a national championship.

His velocity ticked up into the high 90s and beyond (he had outings this year when he sat at 100 mph), his slider was a devastating bat-misser and he baffled lefties with a legit change-up. Skenes is everything you want in an ace: He works deep into starts, has the body and frame to throw 200 innings a season and is ruthless on the mound. The only thing to nitpick on would be how the non-velocity characteristics of his fastball play at the big-league level.

The industry consensus over the past half decade has skewed away from pitching at the very top of the draft due to the volatility and injury risks associated with pitchers. But Pittsburgh determined that Skenes was truly an unavoidable, generational talent, one who should be on his way to PNC Park by this time next year.

— Jake Mintz

[Related: MLB Draft 2023: Six biggest takeaways from Day 1]

2. Washington Nationals — OF Dylan Crews; LSU

A first-round level talent out of high school, Crews eschewed pro ball because he (1) thought he could make more money in three years and (2) wanted to become an LSU legend. Missions accomplished. The outfielder capped off an unforgettable career with the Golden Spikes Award for the nation’s best amateur player while leading the Tigers to the national title.

Entering the season, Crews was the consensus favorite to go first overall. His “fall” to the Nats at No. 2 has more to do with Skenes’ historic season than anything Crews did wrong. His bat-to-ball skills are freakishly good, and even though he doesn’t have light tower raw juice, scouts believe he could smash 30 homers at the big league level. He is as advanced of a hitter as you’ll see at the college level, and even though he ran a concerningly high ground ball rate this year, evaluators agree that Crews is amenable and talented enough to iron that issue out in pro ball.

Quite simply, the Nats got the best pure hitter in the draft and maybe the best pure amateur hitter of the past five years. He and Skenes going 1 and 2 as teammates is a first in the history of the draft and perfectly exemplifies the outrageous season LSU just had.

— Jake Mintz

3. Detroit Tigers — OF Max Clark; Franklin Community High (Franklin, IN)

Most evaluators believe that this draft had a consensus top 3: Skenes, Crews and Florida college outfielder Wyatt Langford (who went fourth to the Rangers). Clark was a relative lock to go fourth or fifth after the collegiate trio, but his selection by the Tigers is a legit zag, though by no means a reach.

So, why Clark?

The first thing to know about the Indiana high school outfielder is that he has the “it” factor. Clark, who has nearly 350,000 followers on Instagram and a huge YouTube footprint, exhibits all the personality traits of a modern baseball superstar. Some old school scouts were put off by his vibe, but there’s no doubt Clark moves like a big leaguer.

On the field, he’s a jack of all trades, a master of none. Clark’s defense in center field is good, his feel to hit is good, his power potential is, you guessed it, good. Despite his mountain of charisma, Clark is a true sum-of-his-parts player, similar to Cubs prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong (without the elite defense).

— Jake Mintz

4. Texas Rangers — OF Wyatt Langford; Florida

Built more like a linebacker than an outfielder, Langford is a physical specimen with a stacked lower half whose numbers this year (.373/.498/.784) rivaled Golden Spikes winner Crews’. Despite playing just four games his freshman year, Langford developed into a consensus top-three prospect in the draft, who fell to Texas at four just because Detroit really loved Clark. A number of mock drafts had him at 1.

He almost certainly will have to play a corner outfield spot as a big leaguer, but the bat should have more than enough juice to stay there (he hit the longest homer in College World Series history three weeks ago). Langford’s hack doesn’t always look the smoothest, but a 1.282 OPS was enough to make scouts think he’ll rake at the next level. He might have the highest ceiling of any position player in the draft.

— Jake Mintz

5. Minnesota Twins — OF Walker Jenkins; South Brunswick High (Southport, NC)

Anybody with eyeballs and a stopwatch agreed that Clark and Jenkins were the top two prep players in the draft. So, even though Jenkins is significantly less “famous” than his Indiana counterpart, he’s definitely just as good. From a relatively small town outside of Wilmington in Eastern North Carolina, Jenkins projects as a potential All-Star corner outfielder who boasts a sweet left-handed swing with effortless power.

Jenkins was known to teams for years before his pre-draft summer a year ago. A broken hamate bone robbed him of the opportunity to vault over Clark, but he cemented his status as a top-five pick over the past few months with a monster spring.

— Jake Mintz

6. Oakland Athletics — SS Jacob Wilson; Grand Canyon University

The son of longtime big-league glovesmith Jack Wilson, Jacob Wilson has some similarities to his papa as a slick-fielding shortstop with plus makeup who has some legitimate doubts about his offensive impact at the big-league level. Even though Wilson practically never strikes out (2.3% K rate this spring) his exit velocity numbers are underwhelming and his .412/.461/.635 slash is more a product of the supersonic offensive environment and bad competition at Grand Canyon University.

Wilson smells like a big leaguer, one with a relatively high floor considering his mastery of the glove, but … I feel comfortable calling this a reach considering how punchless Wilson may prove to be with the stick.

— Jake Mintz

7. Cincinnati Reds — RHP Rhett Lowder; Wake Forest University

The long-locked right-handed hurler had a magnificent career at Wake Forest where he baffled ACC hitters with elite command of a 92-94 mph heater and a roll-off-the-kitchen-table changeup. He’s remarkably athletic, with the coordination, fluidity and quick-twitch movement of a professional dancer. In a winner-take-all College World Series against LSU and Paul Skenes, Lowder lived up to the moment, tossing seven scoreless frames to keep the Demon Deacons in the mix.

He’s a personal favorite of mine, a super personable, intelligent dude who is phenomenally entertaining on the mound. Oh, Lowder is also a brilliant pitching mind who comes from perhaps the most progressive pitching development system in the world (MLB teams included) at Wake Forest. He could be a major-league pitching development coach right now.

There were some late rumblings of a bad medical with Lowder, which either (1) are fugazi, (2) didn’t concern the Reds, or (3) allowed the Reds to make an underslot agreement with Lowder. (REMINDER: Going under-slot is not a simple money-saving maneuver, but rather a strategy that allows a team to sprinkle its bonus pool allotment to other players later in the draft).

— Jake Mintz

8. Kansas City Royals — C Blake Mitchell; Sinton High (Sinton, TX)

Death, taxes, and the Royals doing risky stuff at the top of the draft. Even though longtime general manager Dayton Moore was let go halfway through last season, much of the scouting apparatus is still in place in Kansas City (a point of contention for Royals fans considering the team’s recent run of misery). There is no more terrifying demographic than high school catching (the track-record is super iffy). So, even though Mitchell is a highly regarded prep backstop who many outlets had ranked or even mocked this high, there’s inherent risk with taking a catcher all the way up here.

Mitchell is projected as at least a solid defender behind the plate (soft hands and a rocket arm) and has one of the better all-around offensive profiles in his high school class. And while his overall athleticism (he was up to 97 mph on the bump) gives some confidence to any future move off the position, high school catchers just makes me queasy.

— Jake Mintz

9. Colorado Rockies — RHP Chase Dollander; University of Tennessee

Heading into the year, Dollander was in the mix to go first overall after a sensational sophomore season at Tennessee in which he punched out 108 hitters in 79 frames with a 2.39 ERA. But the 6-foot-2 right-hander took a big step back this year, despite avoiding injury while making 17 starts for the Omaha-bound Volunteers (4.75 ERA). Because while Dollander’s fastball is special — it sits above 95 with tons of ride — his slider looked much worse this year.

— Jake Mintz

Evaluators believe that a smart to average pitching development organization could remedy some of Dollander’s breaking ball issues in short order. Unfortunately, the Rockies are … not that. The club’s track record of drafting and incubating great pitchers is just flat-out bad. There was a legit sigh or two coming from the media section of the draft upon the realization that Dollander might not get the developmental assistance he needs. Hopefully, he can rise above it, and maybe the Rockies have made some strides we don’t know about, but there’s more relief risk now with Dollander than there was 24 hours ago.

— Jake Mintz

10. Miami Marlins — RHP Noble Meyer; Jesuit High (Beaverton, OR)

There’s a running debate in the industry surrounding whether teams who are exceptional at drafting and developing a particular position or skill should continue leaning into their bread and butter or should try to diversify the types of talents in their farm system. With this pick, the Marlins are arguing the former.

This club has been so remarkably bad at developing homegrown hitters but so good at developing homegrown pitchers. In the way that the Rockies taking Dollander makes me feel worse about him moving forward, the Marlins taking Meyer makes me feel better about his.

The Oregon righty was the consensus best prep pitcher available thanks to a high-90s heater with awesome metrics, a high-spin slider and a promising change-up. Every year there’s a high school pitcher like Meyer. Sometimes they turn into all-stars, sometimes they never make the big leagues. It’s a long road, but folks feel pretty good about Meyer’s chances.

— Jake Mintz

11. Los Angeles Angels — 1B/OF Nolan Schanuel; Florida Atlantic University

Schanuel was the only college player in the country whose offensive numbers (.447/.615/.868, no that’s not a typo) could rival those of Crews and Langford. But the Florida Atlantic first baseman goes here because (1) the competition at Florida Atlantic is well below the SEC, and (2) as a first base-only guy, the offensive bar is much higher.

The doubts on Schanuel are really simple: He’s barely faced elite pitching, and in his only opportunity to prove himself over a long stretch in the Cape Cod League last summer he fell on his face with a .272 OPS. The Angels have fast-tracked their high picks to the big leagues, and if Schanuel shows he can hit pro-level pitching, expect him to be in Anaheim by next summer.

— Jake Mintz

12. Arizona Diamondbacks — INF Tommy Troy; Stanford University

Troy, an All-American infielder out of Stanford, signifies a shift in Arizona’s draft and development strategy. They’ve taken a high schooler in the first round in four of the past five drafts (shout out to Corbin Carroll). But now that they’ve entered a window of contention, this front office clearly wants to get their talent matriculating towards the bigs at a faster rate.

Even though Troy played more second and third base at Stanford, the D-Backs drafted him as a shortstop and he has a good shot to stick there defensively. As a hitter, Troy has a compact swing that limits his swing and miss, but still features at least average power. He played in the College World Series in all three seasons at Stanford, an incredibly rare accomplishment, facing the best competition in college. He also improved offensively each season, something scouts and evaluators like to see.

— Jake Mintz

13. Chicago Cubs — SS Matt Shaw; University of Maryland

A super-athletic shortstop from Massachusets who shined in three seasons at the University of Maryland, Shaw has gotten some Alex Bregman-lite comps from evaluators. Like Bregman, there’s some doubt about his ability to stay at shortstop as he goes up the chain, but folks think Shaw has the potential to be a really special hitter as a pro.

In his junior season, the 5-foot-11 Shaw walked more than he struck out, stole 18 bags and ripped 24 dingers. There are some concerns about his high-effort swing (which features a big ol’ leg kick), but the frame, athleticism, track record and swing decisions were enough for the Cubs to snag Shaw all the way up at 13.

— Jake Mintz

14. Boston Red Sox — C Kyle Teel; University of Virginia

The ACC Player of the Year, Teel was comfortably the best college backstop in this draft class — he’s an athletic, strong receiver with a rocket arm who hit .407 for a team that just went to the College World Series. He’s really good. Teel was projected by nearly every industry outlet to go somewhere in the back half of the top 10. Falling to 14 isn’t a massive stunner considering the usual machinations of the draft, but it did likely change Boston’s strategy with its first pick. 

The Red Sox have done awfully well drafting and developing high school bats in recent years and were rumored to once again be targeting some of the high upside high school infielders, or at least one of the college infielders expected to be in range at this pick. Instead, Teel was too good to pass up once he fell into their lap. He joins 2021 fifth-round pick Nathan Hickey — another college catcher who’s currently in Double-A — in the Red Sox’s system and immediately gives them some of the strongest catching prospect depth of any farm system in baseball.

— Jordan Shusterman

15. Chicago White Sox — SS Jacob Gonzalez; University of Mississippi

Gonzalez had some top-pick buzz last spring when he helped carry Ole Miss to a national championship, but a relatively underwhelming junior season for him and the Rebels pushed the lanky shortstop down draft boards a bit. The skeptics knock Gonzalez’s wonky swing and lack of elite glove at the most important infield spot. 

The advocates point to his three years of success in the country’s best conference (.988 OPS) and say, “he’s a potential plus-hitting shortstop, don’t over think this.” If he hits, Gonzalez could be a fast mover for Chicago considering the high level of pitching he saw in school.

— Jake Mintz

16. San Francisco Giants — 1B/RHP Bryce Eldridge; James Madison High (Vienna, VA)

For the second year in a row, the Giants’ 1st rounder was announced as a two-way player, with Eldridge following the 2022 selection of Reggie Crawford from the University of Connecticut.  Eldridge, a 6-foot-7 behemoth from northern Virginia whose stock rose steadily all spring, was revered more for his bat than his skills on the mound but it seems like San Francisco is willing to let him continue his two-way dreams into pro ball. Crawford has continued to hit and pitch in A-ball this season but on a very limited schedule; we’re eager to hear what the plan is for Eldridge.

— Jordan Shusterman

17. Baltimore Orioles — OF Enrique Bradfield Jr.; Vanderbilt University

Bradfield falls somewhere on the Billy Hamilton/Kenny Lofton spectrum of baseball speedster. If that sounds like a big continuum, then you understand why a number of organizations had concerns about the Vanderbilt outfielder’s ability to be an impact hitter in the bigs.

But the speed, oh boy, the speed. Bradfield is a menace on the bases, a legitimate game-changer capable of swiping 50-plus bags a year. He glides around the diamond like he’s riding a jet-powered segway. That elite pace also helps him run down balls in the outfield where he’s easily the best defensive center fielder in recent college history. That skill set raises the floor and makes Bradfield a no-doubt fifth outfielder at the very worst.

That the Orioles, who have by far the game’s most respected hitting development operation, believed in Bradfield’s bat enough to spend a first-round pick on him immediately increases my confidence in the stolen base merchant. This dude is electric, go watch his highlights.

— Jake Mintz

18. Milwaukee Brewers — 3B Brock Wilken; Wake Forest University

The most important thing to know about Wilken is that he has enough raw juice to supply an elementary school lunchroom for three years. This is a powerful individual, who produced eye-popping exit velocities during his time at Wake Forest, despite a very quiet and streamlined hack. Even though Wilken could be in the Home Run Derby on Monday, there are some swing-and-miss issues that could limit his overall production. 

Defensively, it’s a work in progress in the Alec Bohm variety, and Wilken is less graceful than the Phillies third baseman (though he did make a remarkable, game-saving play against LSU in the CWS). An eventual move to first is likely, so the 2021 Cape Cod League MVP will have to rake his way up.

— Jake Mintz

19. Tampa Bay Rays — SS/3B Brayden Taylor; TCU

Before the year, Taylor had some top-five buzz, but slid all the way out of the first round after a rough offensive start to the year. A late season, surface of the sun power surge send him rocketing back up boards, and he lands here at 19 to Tampa. Some folks would call Taylor’s offensive game “well-rounded;” others say “milquetoast.” Either way, he’s a high-likelihood big leaguer that should flourish in Tampa’s juggernaut player development system. It’s worth noting that at TCU, Taylor played third base but was announced as a shortstop.

— Jake Mintz

20. Toronto Blue Jays — SS Arjun Nimmala; Strawberry Crest High (Dover, FL)

One of the themes to watch coming into Round 1 was what order the ridiculously deep group of high school shortstops would go over the course of the evening. Nimmala was the first to go, albeit later than many expected, with the tremendously talented shortstop from Tampa rumored to be in play as high as 10th overall to Miami. 

Toronto will be thrilled to add a player in Nimmala, whose upside at the plate is nearly unmatched across this year’s high school class as a likely shortstop with preposterous bat speed capable of producing 30-plus homers a year if it all clicks.

— Jordan Shusterman

21. St. Louis Cardinals — OF Chase Davis; University of Arizona

Davis was probably the only hitter in college whose swing decision and exit velocity data matched up with the likes of Crews and Langford. The University of Arizona outfielder, who was the only player ranked above Crews in their class headed into college, led the Pac-12 in taters and also walked more than he struck out. And while he’s a likely corner outfielder, Davis has the juice, makeup, intelligence and athleticism to develop into an impact bat. I really like this pick. It’s probably the best part of the Cardinals’ season.

— Jake Mintz

22. Seattle Mariners — SS/3B Colt Emerson; Glenn High (New Concord, OH)

The many Mariners fans in attendance at Lumen Field were going to cheer the team’s first of four Day-1 selections no matter what, but Emerson’s track record with the bat as one of the more polished hitters in the prep class was plenty worthy of applause at pick No. 22. It sure looked like the Mariners went back to the same well as last year when they took Cole Young, a prep middle infielder from the Pittsburgh area known for his bat-to-ball skills, with their first pick. 

But one key difference stands out: Young was nearly 19 years old when selected a year ago, while Emerson doesn’t turn 18 for another couple weeks. The age of high school players matters a ton to certain teams in the draft, but it’s intriguing to see the Mariners go in both directions in back-to-back years.

— Jordan Shusterman

23. Cleveland Guardians — C/1B Ralphy Velazquez; Huntington Beach High (Huntington Beach, CA)

The Guardians are known as a model-driven team, which means they tend to rely more on data and draft history than other clubs. That often draws them toward young-for-their-level hitters with better track records than their counterparts. Velazquez fits that mold.

The SoCal product, who went to a powerhouse program in Huntington Beach, is one of the best hitters in this high school class, but might not be able to stick behind the plate as he gets older. Velazquez raked on the showcase circuit the entire time, which gives evaluators a lot of confidence in his bat. If robo umps get implemented in the bigs, that could lower the defensive bar for Ralphy, who struggles more right now with receiving than throwing out runners. 

— Jake Mintz

24. Atlanta Braves — RHP Hurston Waldrep; University of Florida

Waldrup transferred to the Florida from Southern Mississippi for his junior season and helped carry the Gators to the CWS title game with two beastly Omaha performances. The moneymaker here is Waldrup’s splitter, the most underrated pitch in the bigs (it’s thrown just 1.5% of the time). His slider is sick, too. Even though it’s in the high 90s, Waldrup’s fastball is his worst pitch, which plays down because of below-average command and sub-optimal metrics.

— Jake Mintz

25. San Diego Padres — OF Dillon Head; Homewood-Flossmoor High (Chicago, IL)

Here’s an oversimplified overview of Head: He’s a prep version of Enrique Bradfield Jr., with a touch less speed and a touch more pop than Bradfield had coming out of high school. San Diego hasn’t taken a college player in the first round since 2016, a telling streak that continues with Head. There’s a superstar ceiling here, but it’ll take some time for the Chicago-area kid to get there.

— Jake Mintz

26. New York Yankees — SS/3B George Lombard Jr.; Gulliver Prep (Miami FL)

The son of a former big-league outfielder and the Tigers’ current bench coach, Lombard Jr. is a polished shortstop prospect who’s committed to Vanderbilt. He presently doesn’t have a great deal of strength, but as the child of an MLBer, teams love the makeup and feel confident he’s a future everyday player, even if there’s a lot of developmental runway between now and then.

— Jake Mintz

27. Philadelphia Phillies — 3B Aidan Miller; J.W. Mitchell High (New Port Richey, FL)

For years, the Phillies’ hitting development system consistently under-delivered, failing to turn first-round picks like Mickey Moniak and Cornelius Randolph into contributing big leaguers. The relative success of Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott has bucked that trend a bit, but there are still doubts around the industry about whether Philly’s organization really knows what it’s doing with hitters. 

The Miller pick shows that at the very least, this front office believes in its own group enough to give it a very raw but very talented piece of clay to mold. Miller, a third baseman from a Florida high school, has absurd bat speed, but has some mechanical flaws that don’t always allow him to utilize it in game. The power is real, but time will reveal its utility.

— Jake Mintz

28. Houston Astros — SS Brice Matthews; University of Nebraska

I felt a bit ambitious with my ranking of Matthews at No. 27 in the class, so it was quite validating to see a team that knows a little something about drafting and developing hitters select Matthews with its first pick. Matthews is an explosive athlete who might just be scratching the surface of his all-around potential, and made notable strides with his approach at the plate in his junior year with the Cornhuskers. 

His defensive home was already something of a question mark considering his lack of polish at shortstop. It now becomes even more intriguing considering the organization he is joining, where Bregman, Jeremy Peña and José Altuve would seem to have the infield spots locked up for the considerable future. He was announced as a shortstop, but I could see a smooth transition to the outfield — perhaps even center field — at some point during his development if a positional logjam calls for it.

— Jordan Shusterman

Jake Mintz, the louder half of @CespedesBBQ is a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He played college baseball, poorly at first, then very well, very briefly. Jake lives in New York City where he coaches Little League and rides his bike, sometimes at the same time. Follow him on Twitter at @Jake_Mintz.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He’s a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.

---

---