We earned a banana split last week, but a slightly profitable one thanks to the Dolphins cashing a +140 moneyline bet against the forever-overrated Chargers.
Fast-forward to this weekend and the five bets I’ve circled.
Remember, this place isn’t the space for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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No. 19 Oklahoma (-28.5, O/U 60) at Tulsa (3:30 p.m., TV ESPN 2)
I missed at 28 as some bad quarterback news at Tulsa entered the market late Thursday night and the line crossed through that key number. I hate when bad news doesn’t wait until Friday or Saturday.
In all reality, Oklahoma either wins this game by 17 or 40, so I’m not too worried about the hook in this specific exercise.
The Sooners are a damn wagon and their offense is good enough to finish most drives with touchdowns. And it’s far from a secret that OU head coach Brent Venables has a lot to prove in year two after a disappointing year one. Oklahoma will have no qualms running up the score against inferior opponents.
Boomer.
PICK: Oklahoma (-28.5) to win by more than 28.5 points
CFB Week 3 Best Bets: Illinois vs. Penn State and Colorado State vs. Colorado
Gambling expert Chris “The Bear” Fallica and former NFL offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz break down their best bets of CFB Week 3.
No. 7 Penn State (-15, O/U 48.5) at Illinois (noon, FOX and FOX Sports App)
I’m higher on Penn State than most, but this is a weird spot.
After feasting on West Virginia and Delaware in two straight games at Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions hit the road for the first time. And they’ll finally face a team that has somewhat of a pulse.
Dual-threat Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has been a pleasant surprise and Isaiah Williams is probably the best wide receiver to don orange and blue since Geronimo Allison. Expect those two to connect for some big plays downfield.
It’s all about the line here, as anything north of two touchdowns is a fair bet on the dog. I wouldn’t take +10 or +13, but I’m happy to take +15.
If the Illini can score 17, we should be fine.
PICK: Illinois (+15) to lose by fewer than 15 points (or win outright)
Colorado State at No. 18 Colorado (-24, O/U 60) (10 p.m., ESPN)
Here we go again.
I didn’t pick against Colorado last week, but did fade the Buffaloes in their season opener at TCU. Big mistake. Deion Sanders’ squad was catching three touchdowns, and they famously won outright to jump start the insane hype in Boulder.
Now Colorado is laying 24.
This won’t be a popular bet, but I’m taking all those points with Colorado State. Colorado has bigger fish to fry with Oregon and USC on the horizon, and you would think two-way star Travis Hunter won’t play 100+ snaps and Shedeur Sanders won’t be on the field in the fourth quarter.
The backdoor should be wide open late – if we need it.
PICK: Colorado State (+24) to lose by fewer than 24 points (or win outright)
Deion Sanders says Jay Norvell ‘made it personal’ ahead of Colorado vs. Colorado St.
Skip Bayless, Keyshawn Johnson and Michael Irvin discuss Deion Sanders’ reaction to Colorado St.
Ravens at Bengals (-3, O/U 46.5)(1 p.m., CBS)
Cincinnati’s offensive line is a serious work in progress.
The Bengals big boys got dominated by Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith last Sunday and life won’t be much easier against a Baltimore defense that’s ranked top-10 in points allowed in seven of the last eight seasons.
Sheesh.
Also, multiple Vegas sportsbook sources are telling me bettors are lining up to lay “only a field goal” with the always-popular Bengals. This game will be far from a layup for Cincinnati and I believe the line still sitting at “3” despite the big-time Bengals infatuation is a great sign for the underdog.
PICK: Ravens (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
Bears at Buccaneers (-2.5, O/U 41) (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Raiders at Bills (-8, O/U 47) (1 p.m., CBS)
Teaser time!
I have a strong affinity for the Bears and Bills this Sunday, but I want the extra protection. Let’s move both sides through the 3 and 7. Kick Chicago up from +2.5 to +8.5 and bring Buffalo down from -8 to -2. Voila.
The Bears can’t possibly be worse than they were in their home opener against Green Bay and Buffalo goes from facing one of the NFL’s best defenses to a unit that resembles one of those turnstiles at your local music hall.
PICK: 6-point teaser — Bears +8.5 to Bills -2
2023 Record: (3-5, -2.1)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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