Week 1 is in the books which means we know basically everything about how the NFL season is going to play out, right?
The AFC West went 1-3 while the NFC South went 3-1 — exactly as we all expected! Might as well anoint the NFC South as the toughest division in football (please hear my sarcasm in that statement).
Let’s get real though, a bunch of stuff happened last week that we weren’t expecting and now we need to sift through all of the overreactions to figure out how to approach this week. But fear not, that’s why we are here!
We went 4 of 6 in with our props last week, keeping you in the black, so let’s keep that money train rolling with a few more big brain plays here in Week 2.
QB Props
Justin Fields OVER 61.5 rushing yards (at Tampa Bay)
Daniel: The Bears offense looked not good in Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers — especially the Fields to DJ Moore connection. There’s some work that needs to be done in that passing game and I actually think they address that this week. You can’t give Moore just two targets a game. So instead, we’re looking at Fields’ rushing props this week. If Fields played all 17 games this season, and rushed for 60 yards in every game, he’d hit 1020 rushing yards by the end of the season. So you’re basically betting that Fields maintains an average that’ll help him hit 1,000 rushing yards for a second consecutive season. Here’s the thing, I kinda like it. In 15 games last season, Fields had 1,143 rushing yards, which is insane. Only one other QB in the history of the NFL has had back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing seasons: Lamar Jackson. And it would make sense for Justin Fields to be the second guy to do it. I know that the Buccaneers have a pretty nice defense; that’s part of the reason I’m thinking Fields gets out of the pocket and runs a little more. Call me crazy if you want, but give me the OVER on 61.5 rushing yards this week.
Daniel Jones OVER 208.5 passing yards (at Arizona)
Liz: Daniel, I am thrilled to hear you take the OVER on any Chicago Bears prop. Last week was… well, as you brilliantly articulated “not good.” The Fields to Moore connection must be prioritized. That said, a few designed runs certainly wouldn’t hurt either. So, I’m here for it!
I’m also here for a Daniel Jones bounce back. There’s no debating how awful the G-Men looked in primetime. Dallas, however, is shaping up to be one of the league’s stingiest defenses. Arizona’s defense, on the other hand, seems wonderfully generous. The Cardinals gave up 202 passing yards (and at top-14 fantasy QB finish) to Sam Howell in the opener. Jones can manage 210 passing yards in this offense, especially if Darren Waller is healthier. Even as 4-point favorites, I have to believe that Brian Daboll will encourage his franchise QB to air it out in an attempt to restore his confidence. A statement victory is what the Giants need. I’m betting on Jones to deliver in a ripe rebound spot.
RB Props
Isiah Pacheco OVER 40.5 rushing yards (at Jacksonville)
Liz: I’m sticking with a bounce back theme. Pacheco delivered top-40 fantasy running back numbers largely due to his work in the receiving game. On the ground, however, he was less than efficient, managing 2.9 true yards per carry (RB44). With Travis Kelce back on the field, Pacheco is unlikely to see as much aerial action at Jacksonville. That field though should be stretched for the hasty rusher, opening up holes against a green defensive unit. Even 12 carries at a paltry 4.0 YPC would put Pacheco OVER this week’s prop. I believe.
Bijan Robinson OVER 17.5 receiving yards (vs. Green Bay)
Daniel: Am I missing something here? Didn’t Bijan just see six targets in Week 1? Haven’t we been told he’s going to catch passes in this offense? The Falcons aren’t just going to use him as a runner, our Falcons reporter Mike Rothstein has reiterated over and over much they want to use Bijan as a pass-catcher. In fact, they want to use both running backs this year. And if I’m Arthur Smith, I’m finding ways to get the ball to Bijan in space in the passing game. They get the Green Bay Packers this week, a team that just allowed both Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert to hit over 35 receiving yards. Give me the OVER for Bijan!
WR Props
Calvin Ridley OVER 70.5 receiving yards (vs. Kansas City)
Daniel: Oh shoot, Liz, I just realized I took the OVER three times this week! Sue me for being optimistic. There are a couple of reasons I really like this line. One: Ridley dominated in Week 1 against the Colts and looked like a true WR1. No more questions about what he’ll look like when it’s go-time. Two: The Chiefs could only muster 20 points against the Lions last Thursday and I guarantee you they want to get that 0-1 taste out of their mouth as quickly as possible. I’m expecting this offense to come out humming, putting Jacksonville on their heels and forcing the Jaguars throw to keep up. Especially after a stellar Week 1, give me the OVER here.
Nico Collins OVER 47.5 receiving yards (vs. Indianapolis)
Liz: It seems your optimism is contagious, Daniel! I’m going OVER on all three of my props as well. Remember Nico Collins? You know the X receiver that was supposed to break out in his sophomore campaign last year? Well, he’s still the same guy only this go-around he’s drawing more looks from a better QB. Collins led all Texans pass-catchers in targets (11), catches (6) and yards (80) in the opener (closing out the week as fantasy football’s WR30). That sort of volume is encouraging, especially facing a Colts secondary that was roasted by Jacksonville’s wideouts last Sunday. This game isn’t projected to be high-scoring but I think both QBs will air it out more than anticipated, leading to at least 50 yards from Collins (and maybe close to that from Robert Woods, as well).
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