Week 3 of the 2023 NFL season wraps up Monday night with a pair of games as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to town.
What can we expect from a betting standpoint for Monday night’s games?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Erin Dolan, Seth Walder, Anita Marks and Al Zeidenfeld are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.
DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown make up 79% of the Eagles’ receiving yards (highest percentage of team’s receiving yards by a duo this season). Does that make the OVER look appealing for the receiving yards props on Smith (61.5) and Brown (67.5)?
Zeidenfeld: Brown was visibly upset on the sidelines last week and this is a solid make-good spot for the squeaky wheel in the receiver room against a Tampa Bay pass funnel defense.
Moody: I also have Brown with OVER 67.5 receiving yards. He has averaged 82.6 receiving yards per game with Jalen Hurts in his career. So far this season, he has caught only 11 of 16 targets for 108 yards. With cornerback Carlton Davis still limited at practice due to a toe injury, Brown should have a monster game on Monday, especially since the Buccaneers’ defense gave up more than 100 yards to Justin Jefferson and DJ Moore in Weeks 1 and 2. The Buccaneers’ defense could prioritize trying to shut down the Eagles’ robust ground game, which could open things up even more for Hurts and Brown through the air.
Are you sold on Tampa Bay after their surprising 2-0 start?
Walder: Not even remotely. Baker Mayfield has faced the lowest rate of light boxes, which are harder to throw against, on his dropbacks. I think if and when the Eagles get out ahead and know the pass is coming, Mayfield’s old errors are going to come flying back.
Dolan: No, I am not, based on the competition that they beat. The Week 1 win vs. the Vikings was more impressive than a Week 2 win over the lowly Chicago Bears. The Bucs’ defense is their strong point, but that will be tested against Philadelphia’s offense. While the Bucs started off 2-0 SU and ATS, I don’t think they are suddenly a good team.
Zeidenfeld: They’re clearly better than anyone wanted to give them credit for being with the Tom Brady-to-Mayfield downgrade at quarterback, but we do need to pump the brakes here a little bit. They’ve beaten the Vikings and the Bears. If they compete with the Eagles, I’ll be pleasantly surprised, but we don’t know if they’re anything more than a schoolyard bully at this point.
How would Bengals QB Joe Burrow‘s absence against the Rams impact the way you approach this game?
Walder: If you’re reading this and the Rams are still +3 and Burrow’s status is still uncertain, I’d jump on Los Angeles. Just reading the situation, I think it seems unlikely Burrow plays, and if he is ruled out, this line will move in the Rams’ direction.
Dolan: This will be my “Erin on the side of caution” game. The line opened Bengals -6.5 and was bet down to -2 at one point this week. More information is needed to make a wager on this game. I don’t like to bet on backup QBs. If anything, this is a game to live bet or focus on player props.
Marks: Rams (+2) two-team, six-point teaser (+8). Even if Burrow does play, he is 29th in completion rate (56.9%) and 31st in yards per pass attempt (4.2). The Bengals are last in the league in yardage differential (-341), and the Rams are first (+267). Despite the loss of Cooper Kupp, Stafford is playing with new toys — Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell, and Kyren Williams — who are giving this offense a boost. Jump on this line before the possibility of Burrow being ruled out.
Is there anything else you’re playing on Monday night?
Dolan: Eagles -5. The Bucs’ exciting start to the season comes to an end in Week 3. There are no two ways about it. I don’t think the Bucs’ offense will put up enough points with Baker Mayfield set to face Jordan Davis, Jalen Carter, Haason Reddick, Josh Sweat and more. Meanwhile, the Bucs’ defense will be tested with Jalen Hurts and his dynamic duo of receivers in Smith and Brown. The Birds are 1-0-1 ATS this season, but cover against the Bucs on the road.
Walder: Josh Sweat over 0.75 sacks (+165 at DraftKings). Sacks haven’t been an issue for Mayfield this year, but they have been in the past (9% sack rate last season, for example) and I’m guessing that weakness hasn’t actually gone anywhere, particularly if the Bucs fall behind in this one. Sweat has 12.5 sacks since the start of last season and his 21% pass rush win rate at edge ranks eighth in that span. I make the fair price +142.
Moody: Matthew Stafford over 252.5 passing yards. In two consecutive games, Stafford has thrown for 300 or more yards without Cooper Kupp, thanks to Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell’s emergence. Stafford is healthy and has regained the aggressiveness he displayed during his time with the Lions and the Rams in 2021. With only one sack, Stafford has been adequately protected by the Rams’ offensive line. This trend should continue against a Bengals’ defensive front that ranks near the bottom of the league in pass rush win rate. While Cincinnati’s secondary has allowed only 381 passing yards this season, the Rams could negate this with adequate pass protection. Over the course of his career, Stafford has averaged 257.0 passing yards on Monday night games.
Marks: Bucs +5 two-team, six-point teaser (+11). Mayfield has been impressive this season with a 132 passer rating on third down and an over 70% completion percentage under pressure. The Eagles’ defense allowed over 300 passing yards to the Vikings and Patriots. Their defense is dealing with injuries, specifically to their front seven. The Bucs have been great against the run — teams are averaging only 3.3 YPC — and have been solid against mobile QBs.
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