“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
Week 7 of the college football season is here, and I like a couple of underdogs this weekend.
As for betting on college football every week, I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the season in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games this week, I’ve got you covered.
On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.
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Let’s have some fun and, hopefully, make some money.
Here are my favorite wagers for Week 7.
Last week: 3-5 (18-22-1 season)
All times ET Saturday
North Carolina State @ Duke, 8 p.m., ACC Network
I’d be surprised if Duke quarterback Riley Leonard is able to go following that nasty ankle injury suffered two weeks ago against Notre Dame.
The Blue Devils have a trip to Florida State next week, and you have to wonder if they just try to survive a home game with N.C. State with backup Henry Belin to give Leonard more time to be ready for that one.
The move to MJ Morris treated the Wolfpack well against Marshall, as they put up 48 points and gained 400 yards vs. an FBS opponent for the first time this year. I’ll take the points here.
PICK: North Carolina State (+3.5) to lose by fewer than 3.5 points, or win outright
No. 25 Miami @ No. 12 North Carolina, 7:30 p.m., ABC
Oh, where to begin? I could write at least 10,000 words on last week’s debacle against Georgia Tech, but I’ll spare everyone the time and myself the angst.
I will say this: The Hurricanes have had a lot of difficulty rebounding from their initial loss in recent years — it hasn’t mattered who the coach was. And UNC has owned the Hurricanes in recent seasons.
Is this a new Miami? We shall see, but I’ll grab the points here, as there wouldn’t be a more “because college football” result this season than the Canes going to UNC, snapping the four-game losing streak to the Tar Heels, rebounding from last week’s debacle and handling UNC its first loss of the year.
PICK: Miami (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points, or win outright
Auburn @ No. 22 LSU, 7 p.m., ESPN
LSU’s defense is horrific. But its offense has been nearly unstoppable, with Jayden Daniels really deserving more mention in the Heisman race.
But back to LSU’s defense. It gets the perfect elixir this week: an Auburn offense that has thrown for a total of 238 yards in three games against Power 5 opponents this year.
Despite the efforts of Auburn’s defense, there’s little reason to believe it will be able to keep its offense within range to hang in this one.
PICK: LSU (-11) to win by 11 points or more
The Trojans have ripped off three straight wins since a 2-point loss to James Madison and Troy’s defense is incredibly tough to run on, as it is allowing 84.3 yards per game, just ahead of Clemson and Michigan.
The Black Knights hung around against Syracuse and Boston College the past couple of weeks, but I’m not sure if they will put many points on the board against an underrated Trojans team, especially due to the lack of a consistent running or passing game.
PICK: Troy (-4.5) to win by more than 4.5 points
Wyoming @ Air Force, 7 p.m., CBSSN
The Cowboys have won two games outright as an underdog of at least six points. So either the market is off on the Pokes, or what they are doing is a little unsustainable.
I do think Wyoming is a good team, but I don’t like the matchup going to Colorado Springs against an Air Force team that has been drilling people. The Cowboys gave up more than seven yards a carry to New Mexico and 217 yards on the ground to Appalachian State.
Fresh off an idle week following a 49-10 blowout of San Diego State, the Flyboys should take care of business comfortably here and head into the trip to Navy 6-0 and with a ton of confidence.
PICK: Air Force (-10.5) to win by more than 10.5 points
Syracuse @ No. 4 Florida State, Noon, ABC
I lost badly — 40-7 — with the Orange last week at UNC, so of course I’m coming back with them this week. Since a second-half explosion vs. LSU, FSU hasn’t exactly been a cinch vs. Power 5 opponents. The Noles nearly gave one away at Boston College (holding on for a 31-29 win), Clemson imploded with late-game coaching decisions to help the Noles along to a 31-24 win, and even last week vs. Virginia Tech, after getting up three scores on the Hokies, you look up in the third quarter, and it’s a 5-point game before the Noles pulled away again. Maybe the Noles will roll this week, but coming off a clunker last week, it’s a good chance for Syracuse to bounce back and play a top-five team tough.
PICK: Syracuse (+17.5) to lose by fewer than 17.5 points (or win outright)
Michigan State @ Rutgers, Noon, BTN
I hate myself so much for this pick. I blame Will Hill if I lose, and he gets no credit if it wins. Why did he have to bring it up on the Bear Bets Pod? A Rutgers win puts the Scarlet Knights in position to reach a bowl game with a game remaining against Indiana. This still isn’t an offense that’s going to go crazy on anyone, and while the Spartans are no great shakes, they did show some fight and improvement two weeks back against Iowa. This has tight, one-possession game written all over it.
PICK: Michigan State (+4.5) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)
UNDERDOGS TO PLAY ON THE MONEYLINE
Florida Atlantic +110
Oregon +120
NC State +145
Miami +155
Michigan State +165
Georgia Southern +205
UAB +300
Will true freshman Dante Moore lead UCLA to an upset win over Oregon State?
BEAR BYTES
Now it’s time to have some fun with my “Bear Bytes.”
These little “bytes,” as I call them, are just nuggets that give you some entertaining talking points to pull from as you watch the football festivities with friends and family or banter with your co-workers at the water cooler.
Here are the biggest nuggets that stuck out to me while doing my research:
Notre Dame vs. USC
Dating back to 2015, there have been 14 pre-bowl instances of a team 6-0 or better being an underdog vs. a two-loss team. Eleven of the 14 lost outright, including USC last year at Utah, when the 6-0 Trojans lost 43-42 as a 3.5-point underdog to the 4-2 Utes.
Since 1978, 49 teams have gone off favored the week after upsetting Notre Dame. Only 12 of the 49 covered the spread and nine of those 12 were a double-digit favorite. Fifteen of the 49 lost outright and 11 of the last 13 have failed to cover dating back to 2011.
Three times in the regular season, Pat Narduzzi has faced a team 6-0 or better. Twice the Panthers won outright — in 2016 when the 5-4 Panthers beat 9-0 Clemson 43-42 as a 21-point ‘dog, and in 2017 when 4-7 Pitt beat 10-0 Miami 24-14 as a 12-point ’dog. In 2018, the 3-3 Panthers nearly beat 6-0 Notre Dame, losing 19-14 as a 21-point ‘dog.
Since the start of 2021, Oregon State has covered all 10 of its Pac-12 home games, with its only loss coming to USC last year (17-14) as a 3.5-point ‘dog. Six of the nine wins came by at least 14 points.
In 16 games as an underdog at Texas A&M, Jimbo Fisher has pulled three upsets. Two came as double-digit dogs vs. LSU and Alabama.
Oregon @ Washington
In the last 19 meetings, favorites have won and covered 16. The spread hasn’t mattered in the last 22 games — either the underdog has won outright (four times) or the favorite has covered (18 times).
The Ducks have lost and failed to cover each of their last five games as an underdog. On average, the Ducks were a 6-point dog and lost by an average of 24.8 PPG.
Iowa @ Wisconsin
This meeting has gone under the total each of the last three years, including each of the last two years with a total of 35.5 in both games.
This is just the fourth time — and first time since 2017 — South Carolina is favored over Florida. The Gamecocks beat the Gators in each of the three previous instances (2011, 2013, 2017).
Michigan State @ Rutgers
Michigan State is 2-10 in its last 12 games vs. Power 5 opponents, covering just two times. Nine of the 10 losses came by double-digits.
Miami @ North Carolina
Mario Cristobal’s last eight games as an underdog have been wild. Seven of the eight have been decided by at least 15 points, including two outright wins. That also means there are six losses, with five coming by 26, 30, 42, 28 and 31 points.
Dating back to 2017, Ohio State has not had any issues “looking ahead” to Penn State. In the six games prior to facing Penn State, Ohio State scored at least 49 points in every game, winning the six by a combined 321-75. The Buckeyes covered all but one game, the one in which they were a 52-point favorite over Rutgers.
Saturday will be nearly five years to the day of Ohio State’s last trip to West Lafayette. On October 20, 2018, the 12.5-point favorite Buckeyes were upset by Purdue 49-20 on an emotionally charged night with Tyler Trent in attendance.
Chris “The Bear” Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an “occasional” wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, “The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!” Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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