Is No. 7 Penn State ready for its ‘tremendous’ opportunity?

Joel Klatt breaks down Penn State’s defensive success Can the Nittany Lions pull off the upset?

Laken Litman

College Football & Soccer Analyst

James Franklin wasn’t using “coach speak” when he said that this week’s matchup of unbeatens — No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 7 Penn State — is a “tremendous challenge, but also a tremendous opportunity.”

That’s because this Big Ten East showdown, which will take place on Saturday in Columbus (coverage begins at 10 a.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app), marks a massive moment for the Nittany Lions, who have lost six straight and nine of the last 10 to the Buckeyes.

With the ever-changing landscape of college football — next year will be the last time these two teams play each other annually — this is a chance for Franklin’s program to change the narrative. Is the conference (as it looks today before expanding to 18 teams next season) truly a three-headed competition between Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State? The Nittany Lions have the pieces. But if they can’t win the Big Ten or make it to the College Football Playoff at the end of this year, what do they really have to show for themselves?

“We’re trying to find a way to get a win this week,” Franklin said. “This is a really important game. Why? Because of how we handled the previous six.”

This series has a flair for the dramatic, and Saturday’s edition promises to keep the trend going. While Penn State is winless over its division rival in the last six tries, the average margin of victory for Ohio State has been only eight points.

In 2014, Franklin’s first season in State College, the Nittany Lions recovered from a 17-0 halftime deficit but ended up losing 31-24 in double overtime after J.T. Barrett scored two touchdowns and Joey Bosa notched a walk-off sack.

[Penn State is still looking to build on that 2016 magic]

In 2016, Penn State scored 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter and won 24-21 after Grant Haley returned a blocked field goal 60 yards for a game-winning touchdown.

Joel Klatt breaks down Penn State’s defensive success

In 2017 and 2018, the Buckeyes trailed in the fourth quarter by 10 points or more and won by a point both times. In 2019, Ohio State won by 11.

Then last year at Beaver Stadium, the Buckeyes narrowly led 16-14 heading into the fourth. The teams combined to score 45 points in the final minutes, but it was over for the Nittany Lions after a jaw-dropping performance by JT Tuimoloau. The Ohio State defensive end had a strip-sack and a pick-six in the fourth quarter to help OSU pull away, 44-31.

“I think last year’s experience was a learning tool for our entire team,” Franklin said in response to a question on whether last year’s result influenced Penn State’s offseason preparation. Franklin also gave a shout-out to Tuimoloau in his news conference, saying he has “a ton of respect” for the lineman.

“We played really well for three quarters and didn’t finish,” Franklin continued. “That’s a combination of a lot of things. But there are opportunities to grow and get better as long as you approach them that way.”

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The Buckeyes have been to the CFP five times, including last season, when they lost to Georgia in the semifinal on a missed field goal with less than a minute to go. And while Ryan Day’s team is ranked higher than Penn State and has more overall cachet, Penn State might be the more talented team this time.

For starters, the Nittany Lions boast the nation’s best defense, holding opponents to 193.7 total yards per game on 3.42 yards per play. They’ve allowed just five rushing touchdowns through six games. They’re also ranked second in the country in turnover margin (+10), and first in sacks per game (4.5). Their edge rushers in particular — Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson — are maniacal in the way they get pressure on the quarterback. The two veterans have combined to lead the team with eight sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss and seven QB hurries so far this season, and will be a load for Ohio State’s offensive line to handle.

Can the Nittany Lions pull off the upset?

“This will be the biggest challenge to date,” Day said this week. “They’re very twitchy, very quick, they get after the quarterback at a high level. On both ends, there are NFL players for sure. They’ve been very productive, disruptive and our tackles in particular are going to have to do a great job.

“They’re creative about where they align guys. They do a lot of moving and blitzing, so we’ve gotta be on our game. It’s been like that against Penn State for a long time.”

Then there’s Nittany Lions’ first-year starting quarterback Drew Allar, who was an under-the-radar prospect who grew up right under Ohio State’s nose in Medina, Ohio, which is less than a two-hour drive from Columbus. The 6-foot-5, 242-pounder committed to Penn State as a three-star quarterback, but his status was later changed to a five-star, and he was eventually deemed the No. 1 overall quarterback in the 2022 recruiting class.

The sophomore signal-caller, whom Franklin describes as “steady,” has yet to throw an interception this year and has 12 touchdowns. While his size and arm strength alone speak for themselves, Allar is still young and can’t possibly know what to expect in what is sure to be a hostile and raucous environment at The Shoe.

Asked if this week of preparation was unique in any way, Allar was modest in his reply.

“I mean, it feels a little bit different,” Allar said. “But nothing too crazy.”

Meanwhile, Ohio State’s first-year starting QB Kyle McCord grew up in Philadelphia and wasn’t heavily recruited by Penn State. A lot could be asked of him on Saturday given how many of his playmakers are recovering from injuries, including receiver Emeka Egbuka and running backs TreVeyon Henderson, Miyan Williams and Chip Trayanum. He’ll be looking for wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. early and often.

Like Allar, McCord is young, but at least he’s battle-tested after leading a game-winning 65-yard drive in 66 seconds to beat Notre Dame on the road earlier this season.

Allar hasn’t had a moment like that, nor has this Penn State team been in a situation where it’s needed to pull off some kind of late magic.

There’s nothing Franklin can do about that, other than work on various two-minute scenarios in practice, etc.

“Yeah, there are some things that are just going to have to organically happen,” Franklin said.

“We expect this to be one of those types of games. We’ve played these guys for a long time as well as anybody in the conference. But we’ve got to find a way to be able to win in the fourth quarter and these one-possession games.”

If this clash is anything like recent history, it will come down to the fourth quarter. If it does, and if Penn State can take advantage, this could be the start of a hugely important shift for the program.

Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of “Strong Like a Woman,” published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.