By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst
A couple of days ago, it looked like we could be headed for a long layoff between the LCS and the World Series.
The Phillies led 2-0 in the NLCS, and the Rangers were up 2-0 in the ALCS as they headed home, needing to win just two out of three in their home ballpark to advance to their first World Series in a dozen years.
Things can change quickly in sports, and here we are headed to Game 5 of the ALCS, tied at 2-2, while the Diamondbacks have a chance to even the NLCS against the Phillies.
The Rangers and Astros being tied in the ALCS is fitting. They had identical regular-season records at 90-72, and after all of these games, it is now down to a best-of-3 series.
Will the home team ever win a game?
The Astros were 39-42 at home this year while 51-30 on the road. That strange trend has carried into the playoffs, where they are 1-4 at home but 4-0 on the road.
As these series heat up, let’s try to find a winning bet for Game 5.
Astros continue road success with a 10-3 ALCS Game 4 win
It’s a rematch of Game 1, as Justin Verlander squares off against Jordan Montgomery for the second time in six days, with the Rangers winning the last matchup 2-0.
Verlander was solid in Game 1, going 6.2 innings and allowing two runs, but Montgomery was even better, shutting out the Astros over 6.1 innings.
Montgomery has made three starts this postseason and, in two of the three, has not allowed a run. The reason I like the Over here is Montgomery has earned the chance to pitch fairly deep into this game. Mostly gone are the days when pitchers throw complete games, especially in the playoffs, but Rangers manager Bruce Bochy is more of a throwback and will likely give his starter some rope here to pitch into the sixth inning, assuming he’s having a decent outing.
In Game 1, Montgomery had six strikeouts against the Astros, and he’s gone over this 3.5 total in five out of his last six starts overall.
For the season, he’s slightly under a strikeout per inning, and I think a reasonable projection here is Montgomery goes 5-plus innings, which likely gets him the four or more strikeouts needed to cash this bet.
PICK: Jordan Montgomery OVER 3.5 Strikeouts recorded ($15 bet wins $10)
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear’s Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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