Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Prediction, odds, picks

The Buffalo Bills (4-3) are favored by 7.5 points against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) on October 26, starting at 8:15 PM ET, airing on Amazon Prime Video. 

Both of these squads were defeated in Week 6. The Bills were upset by the New England Patriots 29-25 in a divisional matchup, while the Buccaneers were taken down by the Atlanta Falcons 16-13. 

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Buccaneers and Bills — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and an expert pick from Sam Panayotovich. 

Bills vs. Buccaneers Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Buffalo (-7.5) 
• Pick OU: Under (42.5) 
• Prediction: Buffalo 26 – Tampa Bay 14

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Sam Panayotovich

I haven’t bitten the Buffalo betting bait lately.

…that changes Thursday night.

The Bills might be the most overrated team in the NFL, but they’re still good enough to beat a banged-up Buccaneers team with quarterback Baker Mayfield nursing a knee injury. Mayfield told reporters it’s “not too bad,” but we’ll see.

Tampa Bay has dropped three of its last four games and the Bucs don’t have the depth to withstand the injury bug. They’re already down two starters on the offensive line and now defensive tackle Vita Vea is a gametime decision.

Give me Buffalo by double digits.

PICK: Bills (-8.5) to win by more than 8.5 points

How to Watch Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay

• Game Date: Thursday, October 26, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: Highmark Stadium
• Location: Orchard Park, New York
• TV: Watch on Amazon Prime Video

Bills vs. Buccaneers Recent Matchups

• Over their last five meetings, Tampa Bay has tallied three wins versus Buffalo.
• Buffalo has been outpaced by 35 points in its last five tilts against Tampa Bay.

Buffalo Betting Info

• Buffalo has played seven games, posting three wins against the spread.
• The Bills have been favored by 7.5 points or more three times this season, and covered the spread in one of those matchups.
• Buffalo has combined with its opponent to eclipsed the over/under in 42.9% of its contests this year (three times over seven games with a set point total).
• When playing as the moneyline favorite, the Bills have won 57.1% of the time (4-3).
• Buffalo has gone 2-1 when it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -355 or shorter (66.7%).
• The implied probability for this matchup, considering the moneyline, gives the Bills a 78.0% chance to win.

Bills Stats

Buffalo’s Key Players

Offense

• Josh Allen ranks fifth in the NFL with 1,841 passing yards in seven games this year, averaging 263.0 per game with a 70.7% completion percentage and 15 touchdowns (first in the NFL) against seven interceptions.
• In addition to his passing statistics, Allen has 148 rushing yards (second on the Bills), with four rushing touchdowns.
• Stefon Diggs has 55 receptions (second in the NFL) for 678 yards (third in the NFL) and six TDs. In seven games, he is averaging 7.9 catches and 96.9 yards per game.
• James Cook’s output on the ground this season includes 419 yards and one TD. He is averaging 59.9 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt (12th in the NFL).
• Cook has been on the receiving end of 21 targets in the passing game and has 17 catches (2.4 per game) for 186 yards (26.6 per game) and one TD.
• Gabriel Davis has 347 receiving yards and four touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) with 22 catches on 35 targets. He’s averaging 3.1 receptions and 49.6 yards per game.

Defense

• On defense, Terrel Bernard has 2.0 sacks to go with 6.0 TFL, 68 tackles, and two interceptions in 2023.
• Ed Oliver has 4.0 sacks (second on the Bills) in addition to his 9.0 TFL and 24 tackles.
• Leonard Floyd has totaled 14 tackles, 4.0 TFL, and 6.5 sacks this year.
• So far this season, A.J. Epenesa has 11 tackles, 4.0 TFL, four sacks, and one interception.

Tampa Bay Betting Info

• Tampa Bay has covered the spread three times this year (3-3-0).
• Tampa Bay games have gone over the total once this year.
• This season, the Buccaneers have won two out of the four games in which they’ve been the underdog.
• Tampa Bay has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +280.
• The moneyline for this contest implies a 26.3% chance of a victory for the Buccaneers.

Buccaneers Stats

Tampa Bay’s Key Players

Offense

• Through six games played this year, Baker Mayfield has totaled 1,363 passing yards, while throwing eight touchdowns against four interceptions and completing 65.2% of his passes.
• On the ground, Mayfield has added 99 rushing yards (second on the Buccaneers).
• Mike Evans has 30 catches for 468 yards and four receiving touchdowns (seventh in the NFL). He has been targeted 49 times and averages 5.0 receptions per game through six games played.
• Rachaad White is averaging 44.3 rushing yards per game this season (266 total yards), while scoring one rushing touchdown.
• In addition to his ground game, White has hauled in 22 passes (on 23 targets) for 163 yards (third on the Buccaneers). He averages 27.2 yards per game.
• Chris Godwin has 33 catches for 398 yards without a receiving touchdown. He averages 5.5 yards per game through six games and has been targeted 49 times.

Defense

• Antoine Winfield Jr. has 42 tackles, 2.0 TFL, two sacks, and five passes defended in 2023.
• Lavonte David’s stat sheet includes 53 tackles, 6.0 TFL, two sacks, and two passes defended.
• Vita Vea has 3.5 sacks (first on the Buccaneers) in addition to his 4.0 TFL and 21 tackles.
• Joe Tryon’s season stats include 20 tackles, 5.0 TFL, and three sacks in six games.

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