This is not at all what bookmakers – and most bettors – anticipated in the World Series odds market: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers.
When Caesars Sports first opened the 2023 World Series odds market last November, Arizona was a +12500 long shot – 125/1 – to lift the trophy. Texas was +8000. Yet here they are, while countless tickets on the Braves, Phillies and Dodgers are ripped up, along with all of Mattress Mack’s big-dollar Astros bets.
Easily the best part of a Diamondbacks-Rangers matchup, though, is all the low-dollar long-shot flier tickets that either cashed in the NLCS/ALCS, or have a chance to cash in the World Series. And there are a lot of them.
Eric Biggio, lead MLB trader for Caesars Sports, helps dive into World Series odds and action for this most unexpected Fall Classic.
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Make-a-Fortune Teller
Way back in late April/early May, a New York bettor decided to place a couple of two-team futures parlays on the D-backs and the Rangers:
- $285 on Diamondbacks +6500 to win the NLCS/Rangers +1800 to win the ALCS
- $107 on Diamondbacks +5000 to win the NLCS/Rangers again +1800 to win the ALCS
Potential profit on the first ticket was a massive $357,105, and on the second ticket $103,576. After the Rangers took Game 7 from Houston in the ALCS on Monday, and the Diamondbacks topped the Phillies in Game 7 of the NLCS on Tuesday, potential became reality.
A mere $392 in bets turned into $460,681 in profit.
“I’m always happy to get tickets like that,” Biggio said. “It gives the little bettors hope. Whenever something like that happens, it’s usually good for business.”
Excellent Exactas
That pair of two-team LCS parlays is just scratching the lottery ticket surface. Countless bettors on X – or as I like to call it, Twitter – posted their live World Series exacta tickets. That is, bets on Arizona to beat Texas in the World Series or Texas to beat Arizona in the World Series.
Many of these bets were made months ago, at quite long odds. Even as the playoffs began in early October, one could still get great prices on a Diamondbacks-beat-Rangers/Rangers-beat-Diamondbacks exacta bet.
“There are some big live tickets on the World Series exactas,” Biggio said. “The odds were 400/1 either way. To start the playoffs, you could still get those prices.”
Just since the playoffs began, Biggio said Caesars took 365 such bets – 200 on Texas to beat Arizona, 165 on Arizona to beat Texas. And there are many hundreds more Arizona/Texas World Series exacta tickets on bets made throughout the regular season.
“Even at $10 or $20 or $50, it doesn’t take much to stack up some liability,” Biggio said.
For example, on Oct. 4, a Caesars customer put $200 on the Rangers to beat the D-backs in the Fall Classic, at +40000 (400/1). If that bet cashes, the bettor profits $80,000.
As the postseason unfolded, another Caesars bettor covered both sides of the World Series exacta:
- $150 on Diamondbacks to beat the Rangers, at +17500 (175/1). Potential profit of $26,250
- $95.43 on Rangers to beat the Diamondbacks, at +15000 (150/1). Potential profit of $14,314.
So, for less than $250, the worst-case scenario for this bettor is a $14,000 win. Pretty nice ROI, if you can get it.
2023 World Series Preview: Texas Rangers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Built for the Futures
There are some excellent standard World Series futures tickets still out there, too. A FanDuel customer put $10,000 on Diamondbacks +10000 (100/1). That bettor is now four wins away from a $1 million cashout.
At DraftKings, way back on March 30, a customer put $500 on Diamondbacks +18000 (180/1). That $500 investment becomes $90,000 in profit if Arizona raises the trophy.
Biggio said Caesars has plenty of live fliers heading into the Fall Classic, including at the D-backs’ +12500 opener and the Rangers’ +8000 opener. So even though Caesars retained $4.9 million in Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale wagers – guaranteeing a sizable win in the World Series market – the book has concerns.
“While we dodged the Mattress Mack bullet, we still have accumulated liability with these two long shots in there,” Biggio said. “A Diamondbacks-Rangers World Series created its own set of liabilities. We’ll do OK, that’s the best way to put it.
“We’re in a better position with the Diamondbacks, and we’d do OK with the Rangers.”
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas and enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
