College football’s Week 11 odds market is brimming with big games.
The NFL’s Week 10 odds market isn’t quite as appealing, but there are a few notable matchups.
And in both cases, FOX Sports will be your go-to for several of those games.
That includes Saturday’s Big Noon Kickoff between No. 3 Michigan and No. 10 Penn State (FOX and the FOX Sports App) and Sunday’s San Francisco 49ers–Jacksonville Jaguars clash, arguably the best game on the NFL slate.
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Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on those matchups and more as we dive into this week’s NFL and college football betting nuggets.
College Football Rocks on FOX
Michigan (9-0) is looking to firm up its place among the top four in the College Football Playoff rankings. Penn State (8-1) is on the outside looking in, but an upset win Saturday at home would provide a huge boost. And as if that’s not enough drama, you’ve got the sign-stealing allegations swirling around the Wolverines.
All that should make for some lively discussion between Gus Johnson, Joel Klatt and Jenny Taft. And it’s certainly amping up the betting market, too. In fact, it’s a Pros vs. Joes scenario, with sharp bettors on the home ‘dog and the public supporting the favorite.
Michigan opened -5.5 at BetMGM and fell back to -4.5 within a few hours Sunday night. The line is still Wolverines -4.5 midweek.
“It seems the public is all Michigan, and we’ve seen some sharp bets on Penn State. But make no mistake, we will be rooting hard for the Nittany Lions on Saturday,” BetMGM senior trader Cameron Drucker said.
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RELATED: How to bet USC-Oregon, other Week 11 picks
Following Michigan-Penn State, No. 5 Washington (9-0) looks to boost its CFP credentials when it hosts No. 18 Utah (7-2) at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports App. The Huskies climbed from -8.5 to -9.5 on Tuesday at BetMGM.
“The public is all over Washington here, and I would expect that to continue come Saturday. We will definitely be rooting for Utah,” Drucker said.
Late Saturday night, the FOX and the FOX Sports App comes back with No. 6 Oregon (8-1) hosting Caleb Williams and struggling USC (7-3) in a 10:30 p.m. ET kickoff. The Ducks are painted to -15.5, with no movement through Wednesday night at BetMGM.
“It’s decent two-way action so far,” Drucker said. “It will be interesting to see where the dominoes fall Saturday night. The public loves Caleb Williams, but they also love Oregon.”
Drucker provided insights on two more notable college contests:
– No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia: This line is pinned to Bulldogs -10.5. “Pretty decent sharp action both ways here. I would expect we will be rooting for Ole Miss to win outright, as Georgia will be a popular moneyline parlay leg.” Kickoff is at 7 p.m. ET.
– No. 21 Arizona at Colorado: The Wildcats are double-digit road favorites, moving from -10 to -10.5 on Monday. “We will once again be rooting against CU on Saturday. The public is already on the Buffs, and I would expect that to continue come Saturday. We have seen a few sharp bets on Arizona -10 early in the week.” Kickoff is at 2 p.m. ET.
On-Campus Sharp Side College football betting expert Paul Stone hit both of his plays in this space last week: Alabama -3 vs. LSU and Oklahoma State +6 vs. Oklahoma.
He’s steering clear of Michigan-Penn State and Ole Miss-Georgia, the two biggest games. But he’s back for more with the Crimson Tide (8-1). The Texas-based handicapper is on Alabama -10.5 on the road against backsliding Kentucky in a noon ET kickoff
The Wildcats are 6-3, which Stone labels “a mild disappointment” to this point of the season.
“Kentucky has been beaten by the top three teams on its schedule: Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee. And two of those losses came in Lexington,” Stone said. “Alabama is improving each week, and every game is a playoff game at this point for the Tide.”
In addition, for the first time since early in the season, Stone is interested in Coach Prime and the Buffaloes (4-5). After a rousing start that captured the betting public’s attention, Colorado has dropped five of its last six games. A once-promising season has turned south.
Meanwhile, Arizona (6-3) has three straight wins, all as an underdog and all against ranked opponents, behind the play of redshirt freshman quarterback Noah Fifita. The Wildcats are also tied with UNLV for the best spread-covering record in college football at 8-1.
Arizona is favored by 10.5 on Saturday in Boulder, and Stone likes the Buffs to cover the double-digit spread.
“Three weeks ago, this line would have been around a pick ’em. So I think there’s value in taking Colorado and the points,” Stone said. “Plus, the Buffaloes have scored a touchdown in the final three minutes in each of their last two games to cover the number.”
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FOX NFL Smorgasbord
Two of the most compelling matchups in the NFL Week 10 odds market air on FOX. And a third has a massive spread and a popular public team, so that will get plenty of attention, as well.
Those three matchups: The aforementioned Niners-Jags contest at 1 p.m. ET (FOX Sports App); Browns at Ravens, also at 1 p.m. ET (FOX Sports App); and Giants at Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX Sports App).
Chris Fargis, senior director of trading risk at Fanatics Sportsbook, shed some light on the San Fran-Jacksonville contest.
“Handle is split so far on this marquee matchup of the week. There’s a slight preference for the Niners from our customers,” Fargis said, noting the 49ers opened -2.5 but didn’t stick there long. “Right now, we are hanging Niners -3. This is the kind of game where smart customers will look to find a -2.5 or a +3.5 throughout the week, depending on which side they like.”
Baltimore is on a four-game win streak, covering the spread in three of those games, and bettors are taking notice of Lamar Jackson & Co.
“A clear preference for the Ravens side from Fanatics bettors in the other big game of the week,” Fargis said, adding that customers are hitting Ravens moneyline -275 (bet $10 to win $13.64 total), as well. “We’re taking three Ravens moneyline bets for every Browns bet we book.”
On the spread, Baltimore opened -4 and got as high as -6.5 early Wednesday. The Ravens stood at -6 late Wednesday night, with a 38.5 Over/Under total.
“We’re looking toward a lower-scoring affair,” Fargis said.
And in Giants-Cowboys, Dallas moneyline is making its way into all those public parlays this week.
“Customers are absolutely piling into the Cowboys moneyline on this one, showing no faith at all in Tommy DeVito to lead the G-Men to the upset,” Fargis said. “This is the game that people are tacking onto all their parlays to get a little extra payout on the ticket if it wins. Not much action one way or the other on the spread market, with 16.5 feeling like a fair number to our customers.”
Dallas opened at -15 and got as high as -17 late Monday night. The line settled in at Cowboys -16.5 on Wednesday afternoon.
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Not-So-Marquee Matchup
This week’s Thursday night game is about as lackluster as it gets, with the 1-7 Carolina Panthers traveling to face the 2-7 Chicago Bears. That’s dampened early betting enthusiasm, though Fargis still expects things to pick up as the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff approaches.
“Quiet start to the betting action, [with] not much happening ahead of the Thursday night game. It’s not the most compelling matchup, with only three wins between the two teams,” Fargis said. “We typically see that volume pick up Thursday afternoon and early evening into the game, even when it’s not between contending teams.
“We took several sharp bets [Wednesday] on Unders for [Bears QB] Tyson Bagent and had to move those prop lines lower. We also had a flurry of action midday on Panthers +3.5, with Fanatics customers thinking the game is closer to a toss-up.”
Fanatics opened the Bears at -2.5 on Sunday and got to -3.5 by Monday morning. But Wednesday’s Panthers +3.5 action pulled Chicago back down to -3 (-115, bet $10 to win $18.70 total).
NFL Sharp Side Professional bettor Randy McKay has already made a couple of plays in the NFL Week 10 odds market. First up: Steelers -3 at home against the Packers.
“Pittsburgh -3 was getting ahead of the number. I thought it would move to -3.5,” McKay said, and he was right, as the line is up to -3.5 at a couple of sportsbooks and is leaning that way at several others. “Green Bay is on the road, and its bad offensive line doesn’t bode well against Pittsburgh’s defense. For a history side note: Green Bay hasn’t won in Pittsburgh since Bart Starr was QB.”
McKay also likes the Broncos +7.5 at the Bills on Monday night.
“I’m picking against the injured Bills again. I’m getting over a touchdown with a well-rested and improving Broncos team,” he said, noting Denver is coming off its bye week and beat visiting Kansas City 24-9 in Week 8. “The Broncos’ run game could control the clock against a poor Bills run defense.”
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There’s not much yet in the way of reported major wagers on the upcoming weekend’s college football and NFL slate. But there will be plenty, I assure you.
In the meantime, here are a few leftovers from Caesars Sports and DraftKings sportsbooks on Week 8 Monday Night Football:
– $70,000 Chargers -3 vs. Jets at Caesars. L.A. wins 27-6, bettor profits $58,333, for a $128,333 total payout.
– $55,000 Chargers-Jets Over 40 at Caesars. That’s a loss. And just FYI, the Under is 10-1 in Monday night games this season, and the Under is 22-7 across all prime-time games.
– $27,700 Jets +3.5 (-112) at DraftKings. Loss.
– $18,200 Chargers -3.5 (-108) at DraftKings. Bettor profits $16,852 for a $35,052 total payout.
I can’t imagine high rollers will want to drop big money on either the Panthers or Bears on Thursday night. But you never know. Regardless, if you must get involved in such an awful matchup, remember to keep it reasonable. Enjoy the football wagering weekend!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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