It’s week 10 of the NFL, and we are more than halfway through the season.
As we inch towards the postseason, the pressure only increases as teams jockey for playoff positioning over the next eight weeks.
And for bettors, that makes the games even more exciting!
Will the Seattle Seahawks bounce back from their demoralizing loss to Baltimore by taking down a scrappy Washington Commanders squad?
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Or how about the NFC South-leading New Orleans Saints? Can they hold off the surprising Minnesota Vikings, who are currently holding a wild-card slot?
And what should we make of America’s Team? Can they assert dominance against a hapless New York Giants group trying to regain their footing?
I’ve got all those games covered, plus a teaser that I’m eager about.
I’m 30-22 on the season, so let’s keep the good times rolling as the games get tougher.
Here are my best bets for Week 10.
All times ET
Commanders @ Seahawks (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
After going against Seattle last week in Baltimore, I’m back on them this week as they step down in class from facing two of the best defensive teams in the league — the Cleveland Browns are first in defense; the Baltimore Ravens rank second — to Washington, which is 29th in DVOA.
Washington’s defense held up against the New England Patriots, but they’ll struggle to contain Seattle’s offense, which is coming off a pathetic 151-yard performance vs. the Ravens.
I like this under the key number of 7, and yes, there’s concern that Sam Howell could come with a late backdoor.
Seattle let the Carolina Panthers and Arizona Cardinals hang around before ultimately getting the cover.
PICK: Seattle (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Can Joshua Dobbs, Vikings shock the league again vs. Derek Carr, Saints?
Saints @ Vikings (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Yes, the Saints were a backbreaking non-cover last week. They won the turnover battle 5-0 and had the ball in Chicago Bears territory three times in the fourth quarter but failed to score.
And yet here we are again, going against America’s favorite third-string QB, Josh Dobbs.
Sure, Dobbs was incredible scrambling (66 yards, TD), but it’s as if the Atlanta Falcons weren’t ready for his improvisation — well, after the first two possessions when he took a safety and fumbled.
QB scrambles have been a problem for the Saints, as Trevor Lawrence rushed for 59 yards, Tyson Bagent 70, and Jordan Love 39.
This can’t possibly continue, right? They’ll put a spy on Dobbs, right?
This is also a fade of the Vikings, who are nursing injuries to TE1 (TJ Hockenson), WR2 (KJ Osborn), RB2 (Cam Akers) and LT (Christian Darrisaw).
They’ll return to earth after last week’s thrilling win.
PICK: Saints moneyline (-153)
Giants @ Cowboys (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
No, you can’t get rich betting double-digit favorites in the long run, but yes, you can find value in them occasionally.
When these two met in the season opener, and both teams were healthy, Dallas won 40-0. The Dallas offense didn’t play well, but they didn’t have to.
The Giants defense, meanwhile, has improved over the last month, but that fell apart in Vegas against a bad Raiders team.
I can’t find an edge for the Giants. Special teams? The Giants are 31st; Dallas is third.
When the Cowboys step down in class, they destroy bad teams, beating the New York Jets by 20, the Patriots by 35, and the Los Angeles Rams by 23.
I don’t see how New York keeps up unless you can convince me that Tommy Devito is somehow getting the Giants to 17 points. He’ll do better than 2-for-7 for -1 yards (vs. the Jets), but probably not by much.
A word of caution: The biggest favorite to lose outright this season? Dallas (-17) in Arizona. The biggest underdog to cover this season? The Giants (+15) in Buffalo.
I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t remind you of that.
PICK: Dallas (-17) to win by more than 17 points
Bills hold a players only meeting, trouble brewing in Buffalo?
3-team, 7-point teaser (+120)
Cardinals +9, Jets +7, Buffalo -.5
Cardinals +2 to +9
The Falcons don’t blow anyone out because their coach is ultra–conservative, and the defense struggles to get timely stops.
I have no clue what to expect from Kyler Murray (will he even want to run much?), but if I can get Arizona catching over a touchdown against an average QB, I’ll take it.
Jets pick em to +7
It’s a gross spot for the Jets, off of Monday Night football flying across the country.
The Raiders have taken money all week because they looked like a rejuvenated team after firing Josh McDaniels and dismantling the Giants.
The best unit on the field will be the Jets defense, which should eat up the rookie QB.
This feels like a low-scoring game with a field goal deciding it — unless one of the QBs gives the game away, which is very possible!
Bills -7.5 to .5
The Broncos will be frisky here, as evidenced by their good defensive showings against Kansas City.
The full–season metrics are skewed by the 70 points and 700 yards given up to the Miami Dolphins.
Expect Patrick Surtain to shadow Stefon Diggs and make the Bills win elsewhere.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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