Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles: Prediction, odds, picks

The Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) will be aiming to continue a three-game winning run against the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2). Despite that, the Chiefs are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3). 

Both of these teams are coming off a Week 10 bye. The Eagles won 28-23 against the Dallas Cowboys in their last game, while the Chiefs handled the Miami Dolphins 21-14.

Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between the Eagles and Chiefs — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert picks from Will Hill and Chris “The Bear” Fallica. 

Chiefs vs. Eagles Prediction & Pick

• Pick ATS: Kansas City (-3) 
• Pick OU: Under (45.5) 
• Prediction: Kansas City 24 – Philadelphia 20

Pick via FOX Sports Betting Expert Will Hill

The holidays are almost here and football fans have an early gift to unwrap on Monday night, as we get a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl. 

If this game is nearly as fun as last February’s 38-35 thriller, we are in for a treat. I’m thinking we will get a result similar to the one we got nine months ago. 

The Chiefs are off of a bye, and their head coach Andy Reid has won 28 out of 32 career games following the week off. With the line under a field goal, the Chiefs basically just need to win the game, which is good news considering Patrick Mahomes has a 71-18 record for his career. 

Revenge is a dish best served cold, as the saying goes, but revenge will have to wait. Expect another Chiefs victory. 

PICK: Chiefs (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

I just have to trust Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes here off the bye — yes, the Eagles are off a bye, too. 

The Chiefs are healthy, and I like their defense against an Eagles offense that has turned it over a bit this year. Plus, the Eagles have flirted with a few losses this season, and you have to think it catches up with them at some point.

PICK: Chiefs (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points

Can Jalen Hurts OR Patrick Mahomes sway the MVP race in Eagles vs. Chiefs matchup?

How to Watch Kansas City vs. Philadelphia

• Game Date: Monday, November 20, 2023
• Time: 8:15 PM ET
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• Location: Kansas City, Missouri
• TV: Watch on ABC/ESPN

Chiefs vs. Eagles Recent Matchups

• Kansas City holds a 3-2 record against Philadelphia in their last five matchups.
• Over their last five head-to-head contests, Philadelphia has racked up 142 points, while Kansas City has posted 136.

Kansas City Betting Info

• Kansas City is 6-3-0 against the spread this season.
• The Chiefs have been favored by 3 points or more eight times this season, and covered the spread in five of those games.
• Kansas City games this year have gone over the point total two times in nine opportunities (22.2%).
• The Chiefs have won 77.8% of the time they have played as moneyline favorites (7-2).
• Kansas City has a 6-2 record (winning 75% of its games) when it has played as a moneyline favorite of -148 or shorter.
• Looking at this matchup’s moneyline, the Chiefs’ implied win probability is 59.7%.

Chiefs Stats

Kansas City’s Key Players

Offense

• Patrick Mahomes II ranks sixth in the NFL with 2,442 passing yards in nine games this year, averaging 271.3 per game with a 68.6% completion percentage and 17 touchdowns (fifth in the NFL) against eight interceptions.
• To go along with his passing statistics, Mahomes has 258 rushing yards (second on the Chiefs), but no touchdowns.
• Isiah Pacheco’s rushing output this season includes 525 yards and three TDs. He is averaging 58.3 yards per game and 4.2 per attempt (17th in the NFL).
• He’s also hauled in 24 passes (on 28 targets) for 160 receiving yards with one touchdown. He’s averaging 17.8 receiving yards and 2.7 catches per game.
• In eight games played, Travis Kelce is averaging 74.6 yards and 7.1 receptions per game to total 597 receiving yards and 57 catches. He’s been targeted 72 times, and has four receiving touchdowns.
• Rashee Rice has 32 catches for 378 yards and four touchdowns. He’s been targeted 41 times in the passing game, and averages 3.6 receptions and 42 yards in nine games played.

Defense

• On defense, Drue Tranquill has 55 tackles, three TFL, 3.5 sacks, and one pass defended in 2023.
• Trent McDuffie has 51 tackles this season.
• George Karlaftis has recorded 29 tackles, four TFL, and six sacks this year.
• Justin Reid has one interception with 42 tackles, one TFL, one sack, and six passes defended.

Philadelphia Betting Info

• Philadelphia is 5-2-2 against the spread this season.
• Philadelphia’s games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under five times this season.
• This is the first time the Eagles will play as underdogs this season.
• Philadelphia has not entered a game this season with longer moneyline odds than +124.
• The implied probability of a win by the Eagles based on the moneyline is 44.6%.

Eagles Stats

Philadelphia’s Key Players

Offense

• In nine games played this year, Jalen Hurts has amassed 2,347 passing yards (ninth-best in the NFL), while throwing 15 touchdowns (ninth in the NFL) against eight interceptions and completing 68.9% of his attempts.
• On the ground, Hurts has added seven rushing touchdowns and 316 rushing yards (second on the Eagles).
• A.J. Brown has 67 catches (eighth in the NFL) for 1,005 yards (second in the NFL) and six receiving touchdowns (fifth in the NFL). He has been targeted 92 times and averages 7.4 receptions per game through nine games played.
• D’Andre Swift has rushed for three touchdowns this year, and has totaled 614 rushing yards (68.2 per game and 4.5 per carry).
• Swift has helped out in the passing game, amassing 166 receiving yards (18.4 per game) on 30 catches (3.3 per game), while being targeted 35 times. He has one receiving touchdown.
• DeVonta Smith has been targeted 60 times, resulting in 42 catches for 533 yards .

Defense

• So far in 2023, Reed Blankenship has recorded two TFL, 53 tackles, and two interceptions through seven games.
• Josh Sweat’s stat sheet includes 24 tackles, six TFL, 6.5 sacks, and one pass defended.
• Haason Reddick has 19 tackles, eight TFL, 7.5 sacks, and one pass defended during the 2023 campaign.
• Nicholas Morrow’s season stats include 30 tackles, eight TFL, and three sacks through seven games.

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