Saints mortgaged future to build around Derek Carr, so what do they do now?

Greg Auman

NFC South Reporter

For an NFL offense, true success is measured in points and not yards, and the Saints were on the wrong side of that again in Sunday’s loss to the Falcons.

New Orleans piled up 444 yards of total offense against Atlanta but converted all of that into just five field goals in a 24-15 loss. Since the start of the 2019 season, there have been 295 times an NFL team has had that many yards, and 15 points represents the worst scoring output of all of them. The last 15 times the Saints had that many yards, they scored at least 30 points in those games.

But Sunday, with first place in the NFC South on the line, they didn’t find the end zone once. Inefficiencies in the red zone — and on Sunday, two turnovers there — have the Saints offense playing their worst football where it matters most.

And they’ve taken a step back there despite investing significant money this offseason in quarterback Derek Carr, who signed a four-year, $150 million contract. The Saints have searched for a quarterback to lead them since Drew Brees’ retirement after the 2020 season, and the hope was that Carr — after nine years with the Raiders — could be that answer.

But 11 games into Carr’s time in New Orleans, the Saints have six fewer passing touchdowns from him than they did from Andy Dalton a year ago. They’re completing a lower percentage of passes and averaging fewer yards per attempt. In the red zone, they’ve dropped from 21st in the league to 29th, getting touchdowns just 42% of the time.

And it could cost them a chance to win a division title, even in a bad NFC South. Pressed about consistent issues in the red zone this week, Carr was a bit defensive.

“Why is it inconsistent? We have answers,” Carr said Tuesday. “Everyone wants to hear the answers, but we keep them in-house.”

It isn’t just Carr, of course. Sunday’s loss included a costly fumble by Taysom Hill inside the 10-yard line, but it was Carr who threw the pass intercepted by Falcons safety Jessie Bates and returned 92 yards for a touchdown. The persistent struggles are frustrating, especially because the Saints can move the ball well between the 20s.

“We’re moving the ball down there,” Carr said. “If we don’t have the two turnovers, or the penalties, we’re running good plays and moving the ball. We don’t have a problem moving it, but when we get down there, we’ve had games where we’ve done really well and we’ve had games where it’s been really bad. The biggest thing is the inconsistency. It’s not that we can’t do it.”

Jessie Bates snags a 92-yard pick-six to give Falcons lead over Saints

This isn’t a new problem for Carr. The Saints are 29th in red-zone efficiency this year, but the Raiders, with him at quarterback, finished 22nd or worse in each of his past five years, including 26th last season. If you look at red-zone passing numbers over the past five years, 20 quarterbacks have thrown at least 200 passes there, and Carr has the second-worst passer rating at 89.1, ahead of only the Giants‘ Daniel Jones.

“This is a team game. I don’t see things like that because I don’t pay attention to things like that,” Carr said. “It’s something that we’re working on. Everyone wants an answer or has an answer for us, but we’re going to keep working on it in here. … It takes all 11 guys doing the right thing at the same time.”

The Saints (5-6) face one of their tougher opponents this season at home against the Lions (8-3), and they’re four-point underdogs against a Detroit team already 3-0 against the NFC South, including matching 20-6 wins over the Falcons and Bucs. If there is a weakness New Orleans could exploit, it’s that the Lions rank 30th in the NFL in red-zone defense, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 69% of their trips inside the 20.

If the Falcons and Bucs win as favored this weekend, they’ll play next week in Atlanta with first place in the division on the line. It’s important for the Saints to keep close, with their final two games of the season against those teams, at the Bucs on Dec. 31 and hosting the Falcons on Jan. 7.

There are many more factors in the Saints’ record than just Carr. New Orleans has the fourth-most penalty yards per game, the second-lowest sack rate in the league on defense, and they’ve missed the second-most field goals as well. They’re just 1-5 against teams that currently have five or more wins, and 4-1 against teams with four wins or fewer. Carr understands that as quarterback, much of the criticism (and praise) will be directed his way.

“Whoever they want to point at, please point at me, because I can handle it,” Carr said.

What if Carr’s numbers don’t improve, and to a larger concern, what if the Saints don’t stay in the hunt for the division title? Head coach Dennis Allen’s job could be in jeopardy, and the team’s salary-cap predicament in recent years — needing to borrow cap space from future seasons to get under the current cap — has set them up with contracts that are difficult to easily move on from.

That includes Carr’s deal, a huge investment for a team with limited cap flexibility. The guaranteed money involved means the Saints are committed to Carr for at least one more season. They could get out after 2024 and pay $70 million for two years, including a $10 million roster bonus in 2025 that would offset if he plays elsewhere. New Orleans could draft a rookie quarterback in April — right now, they would be picking No. 11 overall, likely outside the top three or even four quarterbacks — and could ease him in while keeping Carr as the starter to open next season, then moving on in 2025.

The Saints mortgaged future cap flexibility to try to build a winner around Carr this season, so it’s crucially important to everyone involved to keep that in play for as long as possible. A win Sunday would keep them tied for the division lead, albeit a tiebreaker behind the Falcons, and a loss would set them back, in the standings and in the momentum around the team.

Carr said the locker room remains positive, especially against the context of the questions being asked about the Saints.

“It’s not as sad as it is out here, I can promise you that,” he said to reporters Tuesday. “We are super positive. Practice was great, the meetings have been great. You can feel the frustration, but in a good way: ‘This is what I need to do.’ … It hasn’t been what we want it to be up to this point, but we still have time.”

Greg Auman is FOX Sports’ NFC South reporter, covering the Buccaneers, Falcons, Panthers and Saints. He is in his 10th season covering the Bucs and the NFL full-time, having spent time at the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.