We grinded away a small profit last weekend (2-1-1) and it could’ve been sweeter if the stumbling Buffalo Bills got one more fourth-quarter stop against those Undertaker-esque Philadelphia Eagles.
Oh well.
As for this weekend, I’ve got four college football bets and two NFL plays. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
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Georgia Bulldogs (-5.5, O/U 55.5) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Nick Saban is 10-1 in SEC Championships.
If you don’t believe me, look it up.
Saban’s Tide fell to Tim Tebow’s Florida team in 2008, and aside from that game, it’s been pure dominance on this stage. Saban has also won 16 straight games in the city of Atlanta per Peter Burns of the SEC Network.
Alabama is playing much better football than it was in September, which shouldn’t be a surprise given how the last 25 years have played out. Georgia is legit, but Alabama’s defense is the best unit the Dawgs will see to date.
This feels like a 27-24 final either way.
PICK: Alabama (+5.5) to lose by fewer than 5.5 points (or win outright)
PICK: Under 55.5 points scored by both teams combined
Florida State Seminoles (-1, O/U 46.5) vs. Louisville Cardinals
It’s time to buy low on the ‘Noles.
If you listen to “Bear Bets” with Chris and Geoff, you’ll know I’m not high on Florida State in the big picture, especially when you compare it to Michigan, Georgia and Oregon. But Louisville isn’t anywhere close to those powerhouses. Anywhere I say.
For me, it’s about the number. This line was nearly a touchdown when the ACC Championship market first opened, and now we’re at Florida State -1 and -1.5. That’s way, way too much of an overcorrection.
FSU has three defensive studs in the front seven that you’ll see playing on Sundays soon, and it shouldn’t matter if Tate Rodemaker or Brock Glenn starts at quarterback. The Seminoles are the better team from top to bottom.
Period.
PICK: Florida State (-1) to win by more than a point
Michigan vs. Iowa: Big Ten Championship best bets, predictions and odds
Michigan Wolverines (-21.5, O/U 35) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
This’ll be a fun wager.
Iowa struggled to move the ball against Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois and Nebraska. Those defenses are stingy, but they’re far from great. So how many points will the Hawkeyes muster in the first half against mighty Michigan’s elite D?
Probably zero.
DraftKings is dealing Iowa’s first-half team total at O/U 2.5. So if you’re betting the “Over,” you need the Hawks to kick a field goal or score a touchdown in the first 30 minutes.
Not so fast.
I’ll bite the bait and take the “Under,” because I envision Michigan getting to the 40-yard line first, then punting it inside Iowa’s 10. And remember, Iowa is without top return man Cooper DeJean. Their field flipper can’t help them and that’s a very big deal.
PICK: Iowa 1H TT Under 2.5 points
San Francisco 49ers (-3, O/U 48) @ Philadelphia Eagles
I wrote about this matchup earlier this week for FOX.
Las Vegas bookmaker Chris Andrews told me the Niners are the best team in football when healthy and boy, are they ever. Since they hit the bye week on a three-game losing streak, San Francisco has demolished Jacksonville by 31, Tampa Bay by 13 and Seattle by 18.
The games haven’t been close.
Meanwhile, the Eagles continue to squeak by in games in which they’re outplayed. Kansas City and Buffalo were both better for three quarters the last two weeks. It’s a testament to how tough an out the Eagles will be in the playoffs should they find their “A” game, but I’ve got the Niners by seven.
PICK: 49ers (-3) to win by more than 3 points
49ers or Eagles have more to prove in Sunday matchup?
Detroit Lions (-4, O/U 47) at New Orleans Saints
Most people will bet the Lions here and that’s fine.
Detroit is shaping up to be one of the most lopsided sides of the entire weekend and while that doesn’t mean New Orleans is going to cover by any means, it makes me happy knowing I’ll be betting with the house. Endless parlays will have Lions -4 and Lions moneyline.
The Saints have been an offensive mess, but star receiver Chris Olave was a full go at practice Friday, and he should be rippin’ and roarin’ to go against a Detroit secondary that gave up 94 yards and a touchdown to Packers wideout Christian Watson.
I’m also very curious to see how the Lions handle adversity just a week after their crushing loss on Thanksgiving that basically nobody saw coming. Let’s see what you’ve got Dan Campbell.
PICK: Saints (+4) to lose by fewer than 4 points (or win outright)
2023 Record: (29-30-2, -4.2)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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