2023 college football odds: How to bet Army-Navy, early bowl games

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

College football bowl season is upon us!

To wager on these games, you must be a roster expert, knowing which players have transferred out or opted not to play.

You must know if a coach is coming or going, as that could affect how a team is prepared for its bowl game.

Lastly, you must know how each program feels about playing in its bowl game.

For example, teams that lose in the Pac-12 championship game are 0-11 in their bowl games.

I’m going to break down the bowl games I like below, but first, let’s take a look at Saturday’s Army–Navy game.

All times ET

Army @ Navy (3 p.m., Saturday, CBS)

The Over/Under on this game 27.5 combined points, a laughably low number. But how do you wager on anything but the Under?

After one of these offenses goes on a 15-play drive that ends with a 27-yard field goal, you will feel excellent with this wager.

When it’s 9-6 in the fourth quarter, this wager will feel like the right side.

Both of these schools lack high-powered offenses. Navy is dead last in the country in plays of 10-plus yards, while Army is just slightly better, ranking 131st out of 133 teams.

On the flip side, both of these defenses are top-15 in allowing plays of more than 10 yards. So just take the Under and live with it.

PICK: Under 27.5 points scored by both teams combined

Birmingham Bowl

Troy vs. Duke (noon, Dec. 23, ABC)

Things like motivation and roster availability weigh heavily toward the Trojans.

Troy appears to have its roster intact for this game, and the Trojans have the motivation of playing a Power 5 team in a game just 140 miles from campus.

The Trojans are the Sun Belt champions, and according to their local beat writers, Troy’s fans will attempt to take over the city for this game.

On the other hand are the Blue Devils, with coach Mike Elko and some staff members leaving for Texas A&M.

Duke’s starting quarterback Riley Leonard is already in the portal, and it’s possible some of the offensive linemen will join him or opt out of the game.

The Blue Devils finished the season losing four of six. I will take Troy to win and cover.

PICK: Troy (-6.5) to win by more than 6.5 points

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Northwestern vs. Utah (7:30 p.m., Dec. 23, ABC)

The Wildcats had a fantastic season, going from one win last season to seven in 2023. Interim coach David Braun was given the full-time gig, and I imagine this will fire up the squad for this bowl game.

Northwestern’s roster is more complete and healthy than Utah, which went 8-4 after losing so many starters to injury — starting quarterbacks, running backs, linebackers, pass rushers, etc. Just no chance to win.

On top of that, the Utes are expecting more opt-outs. Utah’s Bryson Barnes is back from injury, and although he’s entered the transfer portal, is scheduled to start against the Wildcats.

If Barnes is out at all, Utah is going to a fifth-string quarterback (Luke Bottari) who started against Colorado. Any way you cut it, the Utes might outright lose this game.

PICK: Northwestern (+7) to lose by 7 or fewer points (or win outright)

Heisman Trophy Odds: Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and Marvin Harrison Jr.

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame (2 p.m., Dec. 29, CBS)

This is a straight fade of the Beavers.

Oregon State lost head coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State, plus its offensive coordinator, offensive line coach, and another eight coaches in various roles.

Even though the Beavers promoted defensive coordinator Trent Bray to replace Smith, his new coaches can’t be on the field for the bowl game. So the Beavers will be coached by graduate assistants and analysts on offense.

To make it worse for Oregon State, both quarterbacks (including DJ Uiagalelei) entered the portal. The Beavers’ middle linebacker, their two best corners and a safety also entered the portal, plus there could be more opt-outs on the offensive line.

Notre Dame is likely to be without a few key players on offense, but quarterback Sam Hartman is supposed to play.

I like the Fighting Irish to win big.

PICK: Notre Dame (-8.5) to win by more than 8.5 points

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz