2023 NFL odds: Can wins, historical numbers help Brock Purdy win MVP?

The San Francisco 49ers are 10-3, tied with the Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens for the best record in the NFL — and each team is led by star quarterbacks.

However, only Brock Purdy is doing something the NFL hasn’t seen since the glory days of Joe Montana.

Purdy has completed at least 70% of his passes in seven consecutive games, the longest streak since Montana did it an NFL-record eight games in a row back in 1989.

Purdy — the first quarterback in NFL history to have five games with a passer rating of 140 or higher in his first two seasons — is the second betting favorite behind Cowboys QB Dak Prescott to win NFL MVP (+200, bet $10 to win $30 total).

In addition, Purdy currently has the second-shortest odds to finish the season with the most passing touchdowns (+425) and is tied for the third-shortest odds to lead the league in passing yards (+500).

Currently, Purdy leads the NFL in completion percentage (70.2% among QBs with at least 10 games), yards per pass attempt (9.9), total quarterback rating (74.7) and passer rating (116.9).

In addition, the Niners’ Over/Under on wins is currently 13.5, tied for the highest in the league with the Eagles.

For context, last year’s MVP Patrick Mahomes led the league in passing yards, touchdowns and QBR. His Chiefs also notched 14 wins, tied for a league high.

In 2021, Aaron Rodgers’ Packers tied for the league-lead in wins with 13. He also led the league in QBR and passer rating.

While FOX Sports Cowboys Insider David Helman said Purdy’s performance might get downgraded because of San Francisco’s explosive playmakers, he did point out that there is one element that can’t be overlooked: Ws.

“The most polarizing topic of the NFL season, I think, is Brock Purdy’s MVP candidacy. How much of it is Purdy, how much of it is the talent around him?” Helman said. ” … It might not be fair, it might not be right, but let’s just get down to brass tacks. I do think there is one compelling element of this conversation to keep in mind with Dak and Brock Purdy, and that’s typically voters [reward] wins.”

Here’s a look at Purdy’s passing stats during his streak of seven games completing at least 70% of his passes:

Sunday vs. Seahawks: 19-for-27, 70.4%, 368 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 122.1 passer rating
Dec. 3 @ Eagles: 19-for-27, 70.4%, 314 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, 148.8 passer rating
Nov. 23 @ Seahawks: 21-for-30, 70.0%, 209 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 86.7 passer rating
Nov. 19 vs. Buccaneers: 21-for-25, 84.0%, 333 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 158.3 passer rating
Nov. 12 @ Jaguars: 19-for-26, 73.1%, 296 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs, 148.9 passer rating
Oct. 29 vs. Bengals: 22-for-31, 71.0%, 365 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 94.2 passer rating
Oct. 23 @ Vikings: 21-for-30, 70.0%, 272 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 81.5 passer rating

Purdy could tie Montana’s NFL record against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers

Arizona Cardinals

ARI

FOX Sports lead NFL analyst Greg Olsen echoed Helman, saying Purdy doesn’t get enough credit after the Niners’ Week 14 win over Seattle.

“I don’t know if we’ve had a quarterback at the top of so many different categories winning, being No. 1 over his time as a starter and being not considered in that top upper echelon,” Olsen said. “Every other year when there’s been a quarterback on arguably the best team in the league who happens to also lead in every major quarterback category, to not be MVP is kind of unprecedented.”

And to top it off, Trent Williams, San Francisco’s 10-time Pro Bowl offensive tackle, said anyone who questions Purdy’s performance could simple be bereft of football IQ.

“A lot of people talk and words are what they are. You know, actions prove it,” the two-time All-Pro tackle said. “Turn on the film, watch this kid, watch him play, watch his command of the offense, watch his decision-making. And if you say he’s just a system quarterback after that, then I question your football knowledge.”