Jason McIntyre
Co-Host of THE HERD and FOX Sports Betting Analyst
NFL Week 14 is in the books, and now that Week 15 is here, we are officially down to four more Sundays of the regular season!
The playoffs can’t get here fast enough as many of the games this week are centered around point spreads of 3, which makes picking these games even tougher. There is little margin for error, but that doesn’t deter me from my picks!
For the Game of the Week, we have the Dallas Cowboys headed to Orchard Park to take on the Buffalo Bills on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
Can Dallas stay hot and keep their five-game win streak going, or will the rainy, cold weather of Buffalo damper that heat?
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Elsewhere on the docket, we have a tough game between the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars. We are sure to see some fireworks as these two division leaders try to solidify their playoff seeding.
If you follow us in this space, you know I went 5-2 last week, bringing my season record to 47-29-1.
Let’s keep this thing rolling!
Without further ado, here are my best bets for Week 15.
All times ET
Cowboys @ Bills (4:25 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
After another winning week betting on Dallas, it’s time to fade them in a tough spot on the road after three straight home games.
The Cowboys have beaten up on a weak NFC, winning five straight conference games, while scoring an absurd 33+ in every game. The last time they faced an AFC team, they narrowly escaped a then-mediocre Los Angeles Chargers team, 20-17.
While two key injuries on the Buffalo defense are worth monitoring until kickoff (safety Micah Hyde and edge rusher A.J. Epenesa), their offense will be the story.
RELATED: 2023 NFL odds: Should the Bills be favored against the Cowboys?
This feels like a Josh Allen 15-carry game, and his nine carries for 81 yards vs. Philadelphia and 10 carries for 32 yards against Kansas City were already up from his usual carries earlier this season.
The Dallas offense hasn’t faced a Top 20 (!) DVOA defense since the October loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Buffalo is only 15th, but it’s still a step-up in class, on the road.
PICK: Bills (-2) to win by more than 2 points
Vikings @ Bengals (1 p.m., NFL Network)
Nick Mullens gets the start for the Vikings, and although he didn’t look sharp filling in last week for an ineffective Josh Dobbs, he gets a full week to get ready for the struggling Bengals defense.
Kevin O’Connell is one of the best offensive minds in the game right now.
While Jake Browning has been tremendous the last couple of weeks at QB for Joe Burrow, it’ll be interesting how he adjusts to the blitz-happy Vikings (#1 in blitz rate).
The Vikings special teams have been a disaster this year, ranking 30th in the league.
PICK: Vikings (+3.5) to lose by 3 points of fewer (or win outright)
Cowboys are underdogs vs. Bills: who gets the win in Week 15?
Ravens @ Jaguars (8:20 p.m., NBC)
This is a rematch of a wild game last year — I had the Ravens, so I remember — when Baltimore was ahead 19-10 in the fourth, and then 27-20 with less than two minutes remaining, before a heroic drive by Trevor Lawrence led to a 28-27 Jags win.
The Ravens moved the ball at will (415 yards, 6.1 ypp, five trips to the red zone), but two fumbles led to 10 Jacksonville points.
The Jags have lost two straight despite the offensive fireworks, but the running game appears broken. Travis Etienne hasn’t topped 80 yards since early October, putting more pressure on Trevor Lawrence, who didn’t look close to 100 percent last week.
PICK: Ravens (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Bears @ Browns (1 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports App)
Last week I loved the board and went 5-2, but I don’t love it nearly as much this week. With so many games clustered around the number of three, it feels like a crazy week is coming.
The Browns came through last week and Joe Flacco has been a tremendous story, but as I submit this pick Friday, the Browns injuries might be too much to overcome. Four starters may not play, the running back room is a mess, and the Bears defense has been a Top 10 unit over the last month.
Justin Fields may be able to have a big game running as the Browns play man-to-man in the secondary — similar to the Detroit Lions, who Fields has routinely torched.
If you bet this early in the week you could have had +3.5, so you’re not getting the best number at a field goal.
PICK: Bears (+3) to lose by 3 or fewer (or win outright)
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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