‘Bear Bets’: The Group Chat’s best NFL Week 15 bets, including Cowboys-Bills

Another exciting weekend of NFL football is upon us, meaning it’s another opportunity to throw some money down on the big games.

And if you are betting on the games, you’ll want to listen to The Group Chat segment of the latest “Bear Bets” episode as the fellas break down this week’s biggest matchups.

FOX Sports’ Chris “The Bear” Fallica and Geoff Schwartz, along with Sam Panayotovich and Will Hill, had a lot of thoughts on the Week 14 slate, including the big NFC East battle and a possible future bet to make. 

Let’s get right to their bets.

The biggest game of the Week 15 slate takes place in Buffalo, where the Bills (-2) host the Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). Both teams are coming off major victories against their top rivals, potentially setting up for Sunday to be a letdown spot. Do you think that’s the case for either of these?

Sammy P: Bills -2

“I’ve got [the weather] on my tabs. 49 degrees 18 mph winds, 50% chance of rain, which the rain, to me, is not a big deal. It’s the wind. You take these dome teams outside in December and it’s not ideal.

“This is a really bad spot for Dallas, in my opinion. Dallas is good. Dallas is better than I thought. I wouldn’t bet Dallas though.”

Hill: Bills -2

“Buffalo has no room for complacency, no room to be satisfied. Every game is a playoff game and if they can get this one, they’re in good shape.

“I think they’re too hungry. They’re too focused to have a bad spot. So I agree with what Sammy said about [the conditions], but I just think this is a good matchup and a good spot for Buffalo.”

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Schwartz: Lean Bills -2 but don’t love it

“I’m probably gonna put Buffalo in my contest this week, but I don’t trust them. They continue to be 32nd in variance each and every year because they’re so up and down. It took Josh Allen making a freak show play to even go down and kick a field goal to go ahead in that game. I just don’t trust this team ever.”

We have our first slate of Saturday games this weekend as there’s a triple-header on the eve of the usual Sunday slate. The biggest game of that day is the Broncos–Lions (-4.5) battle in Detroit. Are you riding the Broncos as they’re still on a tear, or are you picking the Lions to end their slump?

Sammy P: Over 47.5 in Broncos-Lions

“Since Week 9, the Lions’ defense ranks 27th in explosive pass rate, 29th in points per game, 29th in pressure rate and 32nd in points per red zone drive. Those are a lot of metrics that I think a lot of people don’t really care about, nor do I really, for that matter. But to be 27th, 29th, 29th and 32nd and anything in a league with 32 teams is horrendous.”

Hill: Lions -4.5

“If we play this game a month ago, six weeks ago, this line is probably double digits. But it’s not six weeks ago, we only know the Lions haven’t played well and Denver has. I still think it’s a good buy-low spot on Detroit. And Denver, they’ve been efficient with the passing game, but they’re not asking Russell Wilson to do a lot. There’s not a lot of volume there.”

Seahawks vs. Eagles, Vikings vs. Bengals

Schwartz: Lean Lions -4.5

“This is a big part of wagering in the NFL, finding these opportunities where you have a team sort of like the Lions, who aren’t playing good football but are back home. You think this is a time for them to sort of ramp up and the Broncos have played better football as of late and have won six of seven. But you know, I think a lot of us feel like they’re good, but not great.”

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs made headlines for all the wrong reasons following their loss to the Bills last week. Do you expect them to right the ship offensively and snap their two-game losing streak against a 3-10 Patriots (+8.5) squad that’s coming off extra rest and an upset win (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). 

The Bear: Lean Chiefs -8.5, Under 37

“Doesn’t this feel like the rare favorite and Under? How the hell are the Patriots scoring points? I think the Chiefs, coming off the way that game went [last week will come out strong]. 

“I think the Chiefs got it. I think the Chiefs come out this week and win very, very easily.”

Schwartz: Under 37

“The Patriots defense is good. Their offense stinks. They’re not gonna score any points in this game. But [the Chiefs are] good on defense. That’s not a problem this year. I just don’t think that the Chiefs, all of a sudden, they’re gonna have this bounce. We keep saying this is the bounce-back game. I think this is what the Chiefs offense is. There’s no bounce-back game coming.

“This game is going to be 20-7. I mean, no one’s going to score in this game.”

Sammy P: Lean Under 37, maybe Patriots +8.5?

“The low total with Patrick Mahomes at 37 and people are gonna go ‘Wow, that’s a low total with Mahomes.’ But really, it’s low for a reason and the sharps just pounded the Patriots from +10 down to +7.5 [at some books].

Hill: Chiefs +300 to be the AFC’s No. 1 seed

“Let me make the case. The Patriots, Raiders, Chargers and at home against the Bengals are the Chiefs’ last four games. If you look at these other teams they’re competing against for the No. 1 seed, the Dolphins play the Ravens, the Bills and the Cowboys. The Ravens also have a tough schedule, playing the 49ers, Dolphins and at the Jaguars. The Chiefs have decent tiebreaker scenarios [as well against the Dolphins and Ravens].”

What are your other favorite Week 15 plays?

Hill: Jaguars +3.5 vs. Ravens if you can get it

“I’m not a fan of this Jags team. But I think this will be a close game. I could easily see this being, you know, 20-20 with two minutes to go, the Ravens have the ball and Justin Tucker wins it at the buzzer. Something like that. Jacksonville beat them in a close game last year. I think this is a good spot for the Jags off of a couple of losses.”

The Bear: Dolphins -9.5 vs. Jets

“I know that a loss was awful on Monday night personnel-wise, scoreboard-wise and blowing a two-touchdown touchdown lead late as they did. But if you look at Miami’s schedule, this is an absolute must-have game. … I trust Mike McDaniel to do enough with [their banged–up offense].”

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Sammy P: Cardinals +12.5 vs. 49ers

“Here’s the other thing, San Francisco just needs to stay healthy at this point in the season. I don’t think you’re going to see a lot of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Let’s say it’s 21-6 in the fourth quarter, are those guys playing? 

“I wouldn’t play them because you don’t need them to beat Arizona. You know what I’m saying? You don’t need to blow Arizona out. Everybody knows Arizona sucks.”

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