Dolphins need to turn it on against elite teams. They can start Sunday vs. Cowboys

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Henry McKenna

AFC East Reporter

The Miami Dolphins have proven to be the total opposite to the Buffalo Bills in one particular sense. While the Bills don’t seem to have any rhyme or reason for when they play their best (and, in turn, win or lose), the Dolphins have a clear pattern.

They play a bad team? Miami wins.

The Dolphins play a good team? Well, they lose.

It’s not exactly that simple. In their lone slip-up, the Dolphins lost to the now 5-9 Tennessee Titans in embarrassing fashion in Week 14. And they did top the Denver Broncos back in Week 4, but it’s hard to give the Dolphins credit for beating a “good team” there, because Sean Payton’s squad was 0-3 and about to hit rock bottom against Miami.

The Dolphins simply refuse to pick on someone their own size. Unless, of course, the opponent is not the giant it statistically appears to be. Their other wins have come against the Chargers, the Patriots, the Broncos, the Giants, the Panthers, the Raiders, the Commanders and the Jets.

Yuck.

Their losses have been against the Bills, the Eagles, the Chiefs and the Titans.

Woof.

The Dolphins’ record might be 10-4, but it’s hard to peg them as anything other than regular-season warriors. They’re certainly not Super Bowl contenders.

So here’s the good-news, bad-news.

Miami might just have the toughest slate of games in the NFL to finish out the season. That starts on Sunday when the Dolphins host the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app). After that, the Dolphins go to Baltimore before hosting the Bills in the regular-season finale. Right now, that means facing teams with an aggregate record of 29-13. And Buffalo, which has the worst record of the bunch, might just be the hottest team in the NFL.

Cowboys slight underdogs vs. Dolphins in Week 16: Who wins?

For a Dolphins optimist, that slate is great: a chance to prove themselves!

But … pessimists might see yet another Miami collapse on the horizon.

Coach Mike McDaniel is handling the narrative in a very Mike McDaniel way.

“I instructed the players … to concern yourself with the next opponent, which for us is the Dallas Cowboys. Any other narrative that has to do with good teams or playoff seeds or the next three games, all that stuff — I gave them the clearance to tell all members of the media to, with all due respect, eff off. Because all we’re focused on is the Dallas Cowboys, and they definitely deserve our attention.”

Want proof that the players are listening to McDaniel?

“We just got to take it one game at a time. I know that’s coach talk, but it’s the truth,” edge Andrew Van Ginkel told reporters on Monday. “You can’t get to the next game without playing the team in front of you. We’ve got to focus on the Cowboys.”

Dallas is fresh off an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Bills, who decided to pummel the Cowboys with their rushing attack. Star QB Josh Allen threw the ball just 15 times and had only seven completions. James Cook ran for 179 yards and a touchdown and caught an Allen pass for another TD.

Miami has the third-leading rusher in Raheem Mostert (966 rushing yards) and 18 rushing touchdowns (20 total) for the offense. De’Von Achane is 33rd in rushing, with 613 yards and seven touchdowns. This team has no problem running the ball and, if Tyreek Hill returns, Miami should be fully operational on offense. And even if Hill isn’t, Jaylen Waddle proved last week he can be a WR1, even when playing against one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL. (And Dallas is up there, too.)

But it’s not the offense that should worry Miami. These big losses led folks to blame QB Tua Tagovailoa. But unfairly so. Against teams with above-.500 records, the Dolphins offense has scored 30.3 points (which would be second in the NFL) with 413.8 yards per game (also second) with one giveaway per game. Those numbers are not that much lower than what they’re putting up against below-.500 teams: 32.6 points per game, 419.6 total yards and 1.5 giveaways per game.

No matter the quality of the opponent this year, the offense is playing at an elite level.

The defense? That’s a different story. Let’s look at those splits.

Against teams below .500:

PPG allowed: 16.2
Net YPG allowed: 256.2
Rush YPG: 90.8
Pass YPG: 165.4
Takeaways: 1.3 per game

Against teams above .500:

PPG allowed: 30
Net YPG allowed: 349.8
Rush YPG: 91.3
Pass YPG: 258.5
Takeaways: 1.5 per game

The team’s passing defense seems to fall apart against good teams. Their points per game doubles and their total yardage allowed surges by about 100.

That’s the leak. That’s the unit that is deciding these crucial games for Miami.

Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio was brought on to make sure the defense would not drag this team down. Last year, former DC Josh Boyer struggled to maxmize defensive production, particularly after the team dealt with a rash of injuries at the cornerback position.

This year, the Dolphins haven’t been perfectly healthy, with edge Jaelan Phillips going down for the season in Week 12. But they should be relatively healthy against Dallas, particularly if cornerback Xavien Howard (hip) and safeties Jevon Holland (kness) and Deshon Elliott (concussion) return to the lineup after missing last week. If those guys come back, Fangio won’t have any excuses.

As good as Phillips is, the Dolphins are getting production out of their other edges in Bradley Chubb, Van Ginkel and Emmanuel Ogbah. And while cornerback Jalen Ramsey started the season on injured reserve, he looked awfully good shadowing Jets receiver Garrett Wilson on Sunday.

Fangio’s system — highly complicated — often takes time to function at a high level. But at this point, it needs to start functioning at a high level. Or else three of the leading MVP candidates (Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen) are about to rip the defense to shreds.

Why Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins are not trustworthy moving forward

It’s time for this defense to realize its potential.

It’s hard to take the Dolphins seriously until they beat a truly impressive team. And it’s easy to imagine they will have trouble taking themselves seriously if they can’t beat two of these three teams. And it’s not just a question of confidence or psychology. Losing to the Bills might just kill Miami’s chances of getting home-field advantage to open the playoffs. That’s a tangible impact. And what hope would the Dolphins have on the road after a three-game losing streak against three playoff teams? Not a lot.

It’s time for the Dolphins to prove themselves. And whether they want to see it as good news or bad news, they have a highly challenging slate of games that will test them.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.