Who’s at fault for Jaguars’ unraveling? Plenty of blame to go around

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Ben Arthur

AFC South Reporter

A month ago, the Jaguars were in contention for the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed.

Now, just a year removed from their incredible run to the playoffs, they’re on the cusp of one of the biggest collapses in franchise history.

Jacksonville (8-7) is on a four-game losing streak with two games left in the regular season, having squandered any grip they had on the AFC South. The Jags are now in a three-way tie atop the division with the Colts and Texans, only edging their rivals thanks to tiebreakers.

Jacksonville can still clinch the AFC South by beating Carolina this week, along with losses by both Indianapolis and Houston. But even if Jacksonville does get into the playoffs, expectations are low due to the team’s recent play.

These are the people, and circumstances, that bear the most responsibility in the Jags’ unraveling (in no particular order):

Coach Doug Pederson/general manager Trent Baalke

The defensive issues facing the Jaguars can be tied to Pederson and Balke’s nonchalance toward personnel upgrades in free agency and ahead of the trade deadline.

Jacksonville had major pass-rush concerns at the end of last season that have carried into this year, partly because the team didn’t bring in an outside veteran to complement Josh Allen (13.5 sacks this season) and Travon Walker (7). The Jags are tied for fifth-worst in the league with 32 sacks this season. They also have a 35.8% pressure rate with two regular season games left, pacing worse than last year (38.4%), according to Next Gen Stats. The pass-rush struggles have magnified the issues of a takeaway-dependent defense.

Defensive linemen Michael Dogbe and Henry Mondeaux, Jacksonville’s two outside defensive free-agent signings last offseason, are no longer on the roster and didn’t make an appearance for the team this season.

What’s gone wrong for Jacksonville?

Offensive coordinator Press Taylor

The Jaguars offense hasn’t operated nearly as smoothly or efficiently in 2023 with Taylor, who was named the full-time playcaller this season (he called the second half of games last season). Injuries have impacted the unit, but it has still had seven starters play every game this season: quarterback Trevor Lawrence, wide receiver Calvin Ridley, tight end Evan Engram, running back Travis Etienne, center Luke Fortner, right guard Brandon Scherff and rookie right tackle Anton Harrison.

So execution should still be better than it has (even if there are legitimate personnel excuses for why it hasn’t been elite). Many of the recurring issues that Jacksonville has had offensively showed up early in the season, when the entire offense was available minus left tackle Cam Robinson, who missed the first four games.

The Jags offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in several key metrics, including giveaways (29th), third-down efficiency (23rd), fourth-down efficiency (19th), red-zone attempts (tied for 20th) and red-zone efficiency (17th).

Receiver production, injuries

Pederson acknowledged that on Lawrence’s two interceptions in last week’s loss to the Buccaneers, the intended receivers missed the pre-snap signal from the third-year quarterback. It marked just the latest instance of a season-long issue: miscommunication between Lawrence and his receivers. It has shown up most notably with Ridley, who has had an up-and-down debut season with the Jaguars despite being the team’s leading wide receiver (66 catches for 871 yards and seven touchdowns).

The absences of Christian Kirk and Zay Jones have also had a significant impact on the flow of the offense.

Kirk, who has missed the past three games on injured reserve with a core muscle injury, was Jacksonville’s No. 1 receiver before his injury and Lawrence’s favorite target on third down. He still leads the team with 257 receiving yards on third down despite having been sidelined since the first quarter of Week 13.

Jones, who was second on the team with a career-high 823 receiving yards in 2022, has missed seven games this season due to injury. His presence not only gives Lawrence another weapon, but makes it more difficult for opposing defenses to cover the other pass-catchers. Some of Ridley’s best games this season have come when Jones has been active.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence

Lawrence is deserving of praise for his ability to play through pain and injury.

After spraining his knee in Week 6 against the Colts, he played four days later and led the Jaguars in rushing yards in a Thursday Night Football victory over the Saints. He played a week after suffering a scary-looking high ankle sprain against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. He cleared concussion protocol in six days to play last week against the Buccaneers. He currently has a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, but his track record would suggest that he has a chance to play this week vs. Carolina, too. Lawrence has never missed a start in the NFL.

But it’s impossible to ignore his head-scratching plays and turnovers that have played a role in the Jaguars’ predicament — separate from those impacted by receiver and offensive line issues. Like in Week 15 against the Ravens, when Lawrence lost a fumble in the red zone without getting touched. Then on the next possession, he erred in not spiking the ball to stop the clock in the closing seconds of the first half with the Jags at the 5-yard line. Instead, he completed a pass to rookie wide receiver Parker Washington, who was tackled in bounds, and Jacksonville couldn’t get lined up in time to get another play off before the clock expired. His ball security in the pocket has also been an issue throughout the season.

Lawrence has 19 giveaways this season (12 interceptions, seven lost fumbles). Sunday’s loss to Tampa marked his eighth career game with at least three turnovers, which is three more than any other player since he entered the league in 2021, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

There’s no denying it: Lawrence has got to do better

Defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell

Caldwell’s defense largely carried the Jaguars in their 8-3 start, as the unit overcame the shortcomings of an inconsistent offense. But the flaws of the defense have been exposed during the four-game losing streak.

Jacksonville has allowed at least 30 points in three of its past four games. Opponents reached 30 points just twice in the first 11 games of the season.

The Jags were carved up by Bengals backup Jake Browning in Week 13, allowed three wide-open touchdowns of 30-plus yards to Browns QB Joe Flacco the following week and gave up a season-high 251 rushing yards to the Ravens in Jacksonville’s first Sunday Night Football game in 14 years.

Perhaps the biggest indictment of Caldwell’s coaching is the sloppy tackling over the last several weeks. Jacksonville has missed 138 tackles this season, fifth-worst in the league, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Jaguars defense has struggled mightily when it hasn’t gotten turnovers. Jacksonville is 6-2 when it has at least two takeaways and is 2-5 in all other games.

Injuries have forced a little bit of shuffling, but the unit largely has the same starters as it did a year ago. Yet, the team ranks lower in scoring defense and yards allowed than it did in 2022.

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Offensive-line shuffling

The left side of the Jaguars offensive line has been a revolving door all season. That has mostly hurt the run game, which has limited the team’s ability to establish balance on offense.

Jacksonville ranks 26th with 93.9 rushing yards per game. The team is also 30th in adjusted line yards, which quantifies offensive-line responsibility on running back carries, according to FTN data.

The most significant blow has been Robinson’s inconsistent availability. He missed the first four games of the season for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, and he has missed the past four on injured reserve. He is Jacksonville’s best offensive lineman. He could be back this week against Carolina, as he was designated to return to practice from injured reserve Wednesday.

Walker Little, who has swung between left tackle (in Robinson’s absence) and left guard, has also missed three games this season. Ezra Cleveland, a natural guard, has had to take snaps at left tackle.

Ben Arthur is the AFC South reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.